carinthian

Morning all, looks like models firming up on Christmas Day. Most of you should have quite a nice seasonal day with a chilly wind and frosty Christmas Night. Any snowfall , probably reserved for The Northern Highlands that may see local blizzards for a time. What about that chart from UKMO end of Boxing Day ? Now that would deliver blizzards to parts of Scotland . Um . As I think trouble is brewing out west as the jet weakens and splits post Christmas C

Evening , going by that fax chart ,looks like Met Office will be ramping up a powerful wind potential during Thursday. 82mb difference between Southern Scandinavia and the high to the SW of British Isles centred over the Atlantic. Models all out of sync at the moment. Not only Christmas period forecast unpredictable at the moment but the Winter Solstice forecast even in jeopardy. Think some rapid changes over the next few days. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4979677

Sorry Laurence, pressed submit button to soon ? Have edited. Must be getting excited about my Christmas visit back to blighty !

Evening , going by that fax chart ,looks like Met Office will be ramping up a powerful wind potential during Thursday. 82mb difference between Southern Scandinavia and the high to the SW of British Isles centred over the Atlantic. Models all out of sync at the moment. Not only Christmas period forecast unpredictable at the moment but the Winter Solstice forecast even in jeopardy. Think some rapid changes over the next few days.

Nay, I only get BBC i player. C

Thanks. My roots are in Cheshire . I lived on a farm until moving to Sussex with work. My main home is in Salzburgerland but visit my off springs who live in Vancouver and Stockholm and of course back to Skipton a few times . Hi , not heard of that one . Will be visiting the Bull at Broughton and The Wholly Sheep Pub in Skipton for a few scoops of Timmy Taylors ! C

Arriving a John Lennon Airport for the first time on Friday for a meet up with Swedish part of the family then on wards to Skipton for Christmas and New Year. Booked a taxis as dont fancy the road trip on Friday. However, looking forward to a traditional English Christmas. You know , all the best things, Welsh lamb, Steak Pudding and mushy peas, Fish and Chips, Lancashire Cheese, Bakewell Tart and custard, Eccles cake and of course a visit to the pub ,finally Chinese takeway. All of these far better than they have in Austria and Sweden . Good also to stock up with Yorkshire tea to take back home. All i ask for is for no drizzle, mild and muck Northwest weather fest ? Cheers C

Well this picture might cheer you up. Tromso shopping centre in Norway. Note how they treat their snow with some love and respect. No crappy salt grit to flush it away. Back in Britain the streets are laden with the stuff at the first sign of snowflakes ( if you get any ) Preserve I say and NO TO SALT ! c

Lovely day for a spot of lunch on the local mountain. Warm as well. C

Morning all, I would go with that Nick. Yes," another manic Monday " in the words of the old Bangles song (oh oh ). Pressure on the forecasting agencies to come up with the goods and predict Christmas pickings. Would not like that , thinking egg on their faces ! So from the safety of my arm chair and morning comfort of a strong cup of Yorkshire tea, what do the models show this morning, I would say still a lot of uncertainties but as a safe bet, go for a rather cold Christmas Day for many with possibly a bit of snow up north and be always a bit vague ! The rest of the holiday ? Think we could have problems out west as developments along the Polar front heading into Blighty. Even end of this week not nailed. C

Probabaly myth ! C

The fax chart for Thursday shows a massive pressure differential between Southern Scandinavia and The Azores. As a result a powerful jet into The British Isles. So going by that that , I would expect some rapid changes Mi-WEEK in some of the outputs. Forecast for pretty hard to nail down as a result of chasing those fronts and pressure changes. Enjoy the roller coaster ! C

Morning Blighty, some rapid pressure changes to start in the next 48 hours. Eastern Alps 1040mb to less than 1000mb within the next 5 days. Some interesting weather developments Wed into Thurs across the British Isles. I still think the low track and intensity is open to change as the models get continue to feed in extra data over the coming days. So again , one to watch. So all in all best not look further out than 120t ( chart below is from ECM ). That of course still makes Christmas forecast very unpredictable . The run into Christmas does indicate some type of zonal battle over The British Isles along the polar front with cold Arctic air to North fighting out with the Atlantic mild sectors. Finer details as yet I would think not settled. As ever more runs needed but should be edge of the seat model viewing as the new weeks starts. C

Thanks for that in depth post. C

Hi again, just a bit of an update from latest ICON run. Just look at the power of that jet crashing into British Isles at 120t. Think you can expect rapid developments along that. Still hard to pin down to what evolves at this stage but looks like some stormy weather on the horizon prior to next weekend.

Morning all, UKMO run this morning produces a good example of a " curveball low " as I highlighted a couple of days ago ( above post ) Winds could be dangerous with this type of development , especially over The Southern North Sea. Still of course a bit early to be sure of its intensity and track as shown by ECM run. Whether it allows the cold to spread further south towards the end of next week cannot yet really be determined but now the potential is increasingly being shown. The "day after tomorrow " runs ( Monday ) with the weekend data added, will I dare say, cast some more light of this development and get some sort of consensus from the main models for a Christmas forecast, hopefully ! Enjoy your weekend. C

Morning all , when ECM produces a powerful jet like that, things can change very rapidly. Still 10 days out till Christmas Day ! So I will best reserve judgement until " The Day after Tomorrow " ,sorry about the pun but there is a heck of a lot data to collect over the weekend and even then The Christmas Forecast will not be nailed . C

Of course 10 days is far out. However, the real point I was making is the potential for powerful winds to develop rather rapidly with-in this type of low formation as previously explained in the earlier post. C

Morning boys and girls, the extended chart from UKMO is of interest .. Yesterday , as highlighted in the above post was the possible formation of a "curve low ". This chart shows its formation and likely to deepen as it heads towards southern Scandinavia . These lows usually have a narrow warm sector on the southern flank and in the boundary zone where the colder rushes in there is a potential for very powerful winds to develop. Think this is definitely one to watch and could be an eventful Thurs into Friday next week. c

Hi Ben, not looking to bad. I know one of my former colleagues (retired weather forecaster ) @johnholmesknows Wengen very well and hopefully he may be able to advice ? C

Polar Low territory ! C

Morning all, some interesting charts this morning. The incoming cold coming shown at various rates with the GEM the most progessive and ECM slowly heading there. I draw your attention to the chart below (GEM op at 168T) . As also shown on the UKMO extended and ECM ,there is a formation of what we used to call a "curveball low " that forms along the top of the Huge Mid - Atlantic High between Southern Greenland and Labrador. It develops where the thermal gradient and pressure gradient is greatest and its this formation that can be rapid as highlighted in the post yesterday by @Nick F. So just another feature to watch with interest over the coming days but from a coldies point of view encouragingly improved charts from all the models this morning. However, for real cold I would like that Scandinavian trough to eventually dig south prior to Christmas and that would up the snow stakes for many in UK/ Euroland. C

If was a betting man, I would put punt on a Manchester white . Only going what I can read into this evening. C

Yes, Nick developments can be rapid along that tight thermal gradient. After a very mild fairly mundane coming weekends weather for many looks like things getting interesting just before Christmas. Our Central European forecasting team seems to think we in the Eastern Alps will remain for the most part on the warmer side of the Polar Front come the Christmas Holidays ( which is not what we really want in resort ) . However, the prospect of some developments across Southern Britain showing in their charts, especially windy across the south of the British Isles. Early days yet, but one to be watched I feel. Whether it brings rain or snow is nay impossible to predict this far out but confidence is fairly high regarding a colder Christmas across much of Northern Britain. In the longer term we need to see The Scandinavian trough and take hold and extent south. Not a lot to ask is it ? C

Just an update about possibles of pre - Christmas wind developments across Southern Britain( re -above post). The latest chart below from GFS shows quite a marked thermal gradient developing. In am just wondering whether any disturbance in that zone is going to cause a forecasting headache ? At the moment, I would say just nay impossible job for a forecaster to predict the Christmas weather in the finer detail but rather looks like Northern Britain should turn colder , but the bigger problem could be for Southern Britain ? I will leave you with that to ponder ! C