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Everything posted by carinthian

  1. A good response post from @Mike Poole with his thoughts regarding Mid Latitude Quasi Resonant Amplification (QRA). Study of the earths turbulent atmosphere as we know is not an exact science but as new data emerges and figure into the weather models, more quest for answers is a result for us meteorologists and fellow lovers of this science. Certainly the speed up of Global Warming is asking a lot of questions. Warming rate is greatest in the Arctic and this appears to encourage amplification. Mid latitude Resonant Amplification is basically slowing down of Rossby Waves. The resultant weather caused by this process is now of real interest regarding the causes of long term drought or exceptional rainfall amounts. Complicated , yes. An example I can provide is that a warming atmosphere holds more moisture. In the Alps you can now see heavier rainfall amounts at a level where snow should be falling , but here lies the dilemma . The extra precipitation turns to snow at Glacier level and produces an increase in snow mass. What will that effect show in the longer term regarding the survival or expansion of glacier activity should longer term cooling eventually evolve ? So , a lot of unanswered questions. Reliance on new information for models to absorb but its the unknown that weather can sometimes provide the unexpected is what we love. C
  2. Aye, we have seen this pattern for the Atlantic trough to disrupt as you say for many months now. Mid latitude Quasi Resonant Amplification ( QRA ) as some of our European experts report could hold sway for a lot of snowfall in Western Europe/UK this coming winter, especially the Alps as they mention ( if things stay as they are ) ! This is very unusual. C
  3. Just got back from a couple of weeks in sunny Ibiza. Raining again this morning in Eastern Alps. Have seen pictures of the snow on the higher mountains, mostly in the region bordering Swiss Alps. Nice to see though. Cold here this morning , only 6 c in village, a bit of a shock from the 30c in the Balerics ! See the sunshine continues in the continental NW England ! C C
  4. News of lots of bookings for Austrian Ski Resort holidays taken today from the UK. Great news and covid restrictions into Austria also being lifted for fully vaccinated Brits. Get those skis waxed. Last year was vintage on the slopes but not the same without the guests. C
  5. Rumours have that the UK draconian Corvid Testings with added extortionate costs are going to be dropped soon. Thinking of a ski holiday the Alps ? Some advice get your flights booked now as cost will soar with increased demand after today with only limited flights on offer so far for next season. C
  6. Well the GFS produces an astonishing chart way out in its latest run ( almost Feb 47 looking with Scandinavian High and with upper low locked over France ) The length in time of the Atlantic zonal flow blocked over Western Europe has become a noticeable feature for much of the past 9 months and as we move into the winter season a increasingly amplified set up could hold sway if the jet does not break through as normally at this time of the year. Interesting times, I think. C
  7. Another great sunrise looking from The Gontal towards The Aineck ski mountain. Low cloud in the Lungau Valley. C
  8. Beautiful picture sent from Katschberg this morning. That is what a sunrise looks like at 2500m elevation. C
  9. A mostly meridional flow pattern for much of this year. You would expect a early cold start to the winter for much of Europe/British Isles if this was to prevail , but as we know from recent past experience that a kind of blocking does not necessary deliver the preferred results for lovers of cold. However, encouragingly the Arctic seems to be heading for a early onset of cold as the the Polar night soon takes effect. I am going for 60/40 in favour of a colder than normal winter ( fingers crossed ) ps. Defo more snow surviving in the higher Eastern Alps this summer. Not sure what that means though for the coming winter but still nice to see. C
  10. Yes, seems to be the case. Most of the hotels have plenty of German and Dutch booking already but few few from the UK. Of course a massive industry over here is ski-ing and I am sure everything will be done to welcome back the Brits sooner rather than later. Time to grab a good deal now with super low ski flight costs out from the UK to Salzburg presently. C
  11. At long last the week ends on a sunny note. Cloudless this afternoon in the Pongau. C
  12. First signs of the imminent onset of the Polar Night. Picture 3rd September in Svalbard. First day of freezing temps. C
  13. Yes, should help protect some of the glaciers higher up. However, as we approach September with its lower sun elevation quite a few snow patches remain on Northern slopes of the local mountains around 2500m elevation. More than quite a number of past recent summers. I am now hoping for a chill Autumn rather than languid warmth from the SW/S. If that Atlantic high stays to the West or North of the UK like much of this year it will be all the better for the coming season. C
  14. Another cool damp day. Full cloud cover and mist in the mountains. Reports of snow cover at 2500m level. C
  15. Kaprun ski resort today at 2500m. 20cm of fresh snow on 29th August ! C
  16. The weather has turned chilly over the past couple of days. Thick cloud cover this morning and temp of 6 c. Looks like a slight cover of fresh snowfall on the local mountains above 2500m. Cattle still out and about at 2200m but not long before they are brought down to lower pastures. C
  17. Just for fun, I wonder looking at this late summer chart, how cold it would be 4 months down the line ? What I do know many snow hunters on here would be liking Christmas 2021 ! C
  18. Another slow moving Atlantic trough takes residence over South Britain. Not for the first time I ask. A familar pattern for much of this year. Whats happening over the North Altlantic with a weakened and displaced jet for such a long period now ? Will it get fired up for the coming change of seasonal cycle ? Lots of theories regarding a forthcoming demise of the Gulf stream out there. So the models in the medium term this morning continue to show a cool August for the British Isles with the speedy displacement of the recent heat over continent Europe. C
  19. The summer arrived late in The Austrian Alps. Possibly the worse summer in these parts for quite some time. Lots of cloudy days with rain never far away. The last 3 days have been cold and damp with a current temp of 8c in the village . Logs burning this morning. C
  20. Based on that latest chart from UKMO for mid day Saturday, I think a forecast would be tricky. With so many outdoor events now taking place and stay vacations with -in the United Kingdom, getting it right will be a good achievement from a weather forecasters point of view. It could be a nice day for many but on the other hand the advance of the warm front and the associated low could speed up. Tricky one this to predict regional forecasts. My guess is 50/50 for wet and cloud/ fine and warm. Difficult call this one. A forecasters dilemma. Get it right a good guy, get it wrong your a load rubbish !. C
  21. GFS produces an early winter overview chart for 25th August with early snowfall in Lapland. A pretty awful chart for NW Europe. As usual too far out to get upset or excited but it is in the mix shown by the models at that range. C
  22. Picture just sent from my daughters holiday villa in Pierrefeu-du Var, SE France. Temperature 35c with some evidence of Sahara dust going by the sun. c
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