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carinthian last won the day on November 5

carinthian had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Katschberg-Ski area in the region of Lungau
  • Interests
    Pubs with live music. Ski-ing and cricket.
  • Weather Preferences
    Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.

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  1. Looking at the ECM pressure anomalie chart 500mbz dam at 240t you would expect the low heights also to start to sink south. however, ECM taking a bit longer to evolve in this particular run. C C
  2. Morning all, well UKMO has dropped the build of high pressure into the British Isles this morning. All main models looking to have a big slow moving Atlantic Low circulation in place, some way south of Iceland at 144 T. Meanwhile in the shorter term , still some uncertainty in the timing to push the cold air away from the British Isles during the weekend. Beyond 144t , the models throwing all sorts of outcomes into the equation. Certainly chart of the day so far is from the gfs -300t parallel run which brings a snowy Christmas Eve to you lot in Blighty followed by the GEM ops run which is heading for a similar scenario as early as 240t. Think the outcome eventually will be similar to what the model we have over here has been showing for a number of days now and that is for the low to sink slowly into Europe through the British Isles followed by a rise of pressure to the North or Northwest . Will get an update later this morning on latest thoughts.
  3. Interesting, looks like UKMO extended builds pressure into the SE Britain . So a continental flow into England and Wales and a long Southerly flow into Scotland. A big difference in the models at 168t. Wish we could see further east. I would imagine the surface flow would be rather chilly especially towards southern Britain. Kind of ties in with the Met Office forecast from a couple of days ago for this period with an increasing chance of frosts , especially in SE England. C
  4. Yes, about a 50mile correction further west and allows the 528 dam line to make landfall . C
  5. Bit of relief for you Northwestsnow from the horrible GFS latest ops. The Gem Globel Models brings some festive snow cover for your part of the world and zero temps at 240t !! .
  6. Suns come out. Sparkling day now, deep snow cover and current temp of -5c. Just a few skiers today enjoying the fantastic weather and scenery in the mountains. A bit of an update from over here. Still not 100% sure how things are going to evolve this coming weekend regarding to the British Isles. Model still keeps showing a slight westward correction on each 24 hourly run output. Longer term charts at day 10 still shows a low over the British Isles starting to slowly sink into Europe and height rises to follow towards the NW. By day 15 some very cold air develops ,especially over Northeast Europe. UK looks cold during this period with snow risk more likely over the continent but still too far out to forecast ,but the trend is there. Hope this helps. c
  7. carinthian


    Aineck Stublel this morning. 70cm of fresh snowfall. C
  8. Morning all. Thought you might like these pictures taken in the village last night. 50cm snowfall ! Interesting charts from the models this morning with a bit of a colder upgrade. Looking at the UKMO fax chart , a cold block still in place for Friday with little progress of the front out of Ireland. Think Saturday could be an interest day as the fronts start to push into the cold air ( transient snow for quite a few ) if the current model outputs hold but I think beyond 96 t I-144t is open to uncertainty. Should get an update later from over here as regards to the colder spell to evolve in the 10-15 days ( as indicated in the above post ). C
  9. Thought you snow stared lover might like this picture taken today in resort centre, 30 cm of fresh snowfall. Just come at the right time. By Thursday we see the start of trough disruption to the SW of Britain with any precipitation likely to head into France. Thereafter, a other thrust of Atlantic airmass into the British Isles. Question ,( do you think it will displace any cold air to the east) ? Their model closer to the latest Canadian Model , so they are 50/50 split/ The longer term charts out from days 10-15 indicate low pressure over the British Isles with this slowly sinking into the continent by day 15 with rise of pressure following to NW. A more southerly fragmented jet expected to develop rather than the normal SW to NE flow. So take what you want from this but looks UK may still be on the colder side of the Polar Jet prior to Christmas. Still of the opinion that a more potent Scandinavian Block to develop between Christmas and New Year. We will see . C C
  10. At least the Canadian Global Model pushes the button for a snowy next weekend across Blighty. Looks like on its own ,especially as its American neighbour model is very progressive to bring a milder flow in as early as 120t as is the ECM. However, UKMO maybe not as progressive as the other big two. Still quite a bit of uncertainty as regards the 300mb jet strength and positioning in the period 120-240t. So not all decided yet. C
  11. Looks like the front grinding to a halt/slow moving across the spine of the country. Notice also the opening up of the isobars out to the west, which is indicative of less of a zonal push. C
  12. Hi there, I will be talking to them tomorrow morning. Last Friday they did as I reported then indicate their longer range outputs had shown cold weather the week before Christmas for much of Europe and the British Isles. I was under the assumption from a Scandinavia High holding and falling heights to the south but will try and get clarification tomorrow morning if this still holds on their latest singular model run which updates every 24 hours. Its usually very good in the time span 10-15 days. C
  13. There we have it. Cold air advected from the Northern European Plain at 120t . C
  14. Real up grade this run at 120t. Would love to see the 850mb flow temps.
  15. Just wondering if we will get a upgrade from UKMO? I think maybe yes in the shorter term anyway. C