Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


carinthian last won the day on January 17

carinthian had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

6,922 Exceptional


About carinthian

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    Katschberg-Ski area in the region of Lungau
  • Interests
    Pubs with live music. Ski-ing and cricket.
  • Weather Preferences
    Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.

Recent Profile Visitors

14,321 profile views
  1. Morning all, here is a up date from a foreign field as so to speak. Current picture below on our mountain, temp -8c. We have been given an upgrade in the cold for Tuesday with a forecast temp MAX of -20c on the top runs of the mountain, that's about at 850mb level, so shows how cold the air mass will be at that time. Forecast regarding UK , they put a lot of faith in the 300mb NH wind flow pattern from what I gather and its current orientation is ripe for a severe protracted cold block over much of Northern Europe including all of the British Isles. Regarding their own model its more inclined to ECM current output, maybe a bit more severe. They still expect snow is more likely from the east affecting the British Isles next week, especially mid week as their own chart still shows a significant disruption in the flow or possible low formation coming out from Poland direction. They appear less keen on the attack from the SW/S to make much head way into Blighty, maybe making limited progress at best and more likely to be repelled back to the other side of the channel ( but that is still a long way off ) so for the time being look EAST is their advice for snow . In the longer term they still expect the deep core of cold to be over Scandinavia/ Arctic Russia with pulses of cold air continuing to advect towards the British Isles , especially another cold pool showing at around10 days time again. OK , hope that helps a bit. This will be my last post for a week as I am off to Rauris for a ski-ing holiday and meeting up with a few old cricketing rascals out from Blighty.. Best of luck with the snow and will be looking forward to pictures on this site next week of ice flows down the Thames and deep snow drifts on the Berkshire Downs! C
  2. Hi Singularity, booked a chat with the team in an hour. Will get back with an up date with their thoughts and latest model predictions. Should be interesting from what I have seen of this mornings bigger model outputs to say the least ! C
  3. Evening all, truly remarkable charts this evening. We have out coldest Day as Tuesday with a max of -14c in the village and a minimum of -20c on Wednesday morning. Thursday will see the deepest of cold air over the British Isles with some parts of England and Wales remaining below freezing all day. I highlight the chart below at 162t and you will notice the circulation forming over Poland/ Southern Baltic ( : as mentioned in the above post from yesterday ) It is from this our experts think will produce some heavier snowfall in Eastern Britain towards the end of next week. Still early days ,but this system is now being progged as shown by the attached chart from GFS . Interestingly, they also mention a further even more intense cold pool for early March to move down from the Russian Arctic. Wow. March record cold on the cards. C
  4. You loved doing that forecast ! Been a long time coming. C
  5. Yes Summer Sun,the tightening of the isobars down south seem to follow ECM model at 168t and that will make it damn cold ! We will now have to wait to see what develops in the flow to the East and possibly South. UK could be attacked from both directions in the longer term. Now that would be crazy snow scenario but as you know snow prediction is still too far out at the moment. C
  6. Remember to keep your lips away from the chairlift metal bits ! Not sure what my Brit friends will make of it all when they land in Salzburg this Saturday. Think they will be in for a bit of a shock, not very often your get extreme temperature profile as what is predicted in the Alps next week. C
  7. Further to the above we have just been issued with our mountain temperature projections for next Tuesday morning & Wednesday, -23c at 2000m and -29c at 3000m, that's a incredible depth of cold air . The minimum in the sink hole of the Rauris valley under the Gross Glockner Massif where I will be could go as low as -27c ! If that's the case, will be the coldest temp I have witnessed andt would beat my experience spent in British Columbia. C
  8. Morning all from a freezing snowy Austria. Those model runs this morning are just amazing run for cold lovers. My pick is the ECM 850mb temp profile for Thursday at 168t, incredible cold in the south with the added wind chill factor. Nearer the more reliable time span the updated fax shows the 528 dam close to SE Britain on Sunday which looks an advanced solution to colder air mass getting into the mainland. A bit quicker than previous runs, so you could start to see light snowfall early Sunday based on that input. C
  9. Afternoon, as promised reporting back with our Forecasting Portal Service experts latest thinking with specific the United Kingdom regarding depth of cold , timing and snowfall. They talk about the large cold block in place over much of Europe by Wednesday with Britain well locked in its midst based on the model 300mb wind flow pattern over much of the Northern Hemisphere which looks conclusive to a prolonged cold spell. Their own model develops a core mass of very cold upper air now developing over Northern Russia, sub -40c core at 500mb level ( at around 18500ft asl). They predict this cold pool to move W/SW in the direction of the British Isles with a quicker solution than shown by some of the bigger models. Further into the middle of next week looks like a trough or low formation to develop in the flow ,possibly over Poland or Southern Baltic as they have pressure value falling as low as 1015mb. That's something to keep an eye on in later runs. So light snow could start showing up in Southeast parts later in the weekend but the heavier convection snow more likely in Eastern parts in earlier part of next week with possible chance of more organised snowfall by Wednesday or the first day of the new month. So all in all follows UKMO latest forecast regarding snow prospects but the difference could be timing. Hope this all helps. C
  10. Morning all. Another great set of model runs this morning. Best stick to the short range outputs in this situation as we all know out to 240t charts hardly verify but they do indicate some sort of retrogressive set up.All in all, that's one heck of a cold block where ever the high is positioned. So my chart to highlight is the UKMO 96 t, now showing a super extended block to the north east with central pressure heading towards 1050mb. The latest fax for Saturday shows the human input from the Exeter team, note the embedded warm front crossing Western France, as Ian McCaskell would say, " That's about as warm as a Polar Bears picknic " . I think this is probably a section of warmer upper air in the flow, but will not affect cold surface flow. Looking at this same chart the real cold air is heading for South eastern Britain behind the front moving SW from the Baltic countries. Most models indicate this very cold air mass into British Isles during Sunday. Thereafter , an increased chance of convective snow, especially in Eastern Britain but by then we may be looking for troughs in the flow to push through , hence keep a eye on the fax chart human inputs. Should get back later today with a report from our forecast team over here that may shed some light on snow chances for next week. C
  11. We do get seasonal forecasts but not use to individual weeks like yours. I know they have plenty of depth and the runs are in fantastic condition. You will just be fine at the end of March even if if gets a bit warm it still freezes at night and snow blowers come into operation. Obertauern as you know has one of the longest ski-ing seasons in the whole of the Alps . I will be staying at Hotel Schneider during the festival. Good luck with the weather and I am sure the snow will be good . C
  12. Morning all, what wonderful winter charts we have. Pick for me is the two from UKMO. The model rock solid route to prolonged cold and now in the reliable time span. The human input in the latest fax chart , this one for Friday shows the increasing North Scandinavian heights continue to gather a pace as the week progresses with its extended strong ridge pushing well into the Eastern Atlantic. Now we also see the depth of coldness likely with the plotted 528 and 510 dam lines indicated. For snow watches its that area between Latvia and Denmark that we have to look for trough development in the increasing depth of cold as it advects towards the British Isles. Think late Sunday and into early next week looks good for convective snow showers to move across your part of the world. Beyond that retrogression of the high with frontal attack from the SW ? Who knows...just enjoy and await the Eastern delights in store !! C
  13. Re , above post ,Yes, this is a upgrade or correction from ECM compared to midnight run. Heights to the NE much stronger on this run. Much colder upper air advection approahing the British Isles this time next week. Looking good now as all models coming on board. Its now a matter of timing for the arrival of the deepest cold pool . GFS wants to bring later in a bit quicker. UKMO looks solid and robust route to get the full cold in eventually. C
  14. They certainly were. Think our John Holmes remembers that one quite well.. The cold synoptics became evident by the first week of February that year, so had a bit of a head start to our present up and coming cold spell . C
  15. Evening, think a bit of a up grade from latest UKMO run .Has colder air advection through the lower layers into SE Britain by next Sunday. GFS continues on its merry way towards a noticeable cold wave into much of the British Isles by this time next week with snow risk increasing. C