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carinthian last won the day on November 5 2018

carinthian had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Katschberg-Ski area in the region of Lungau
  • Interests
    Pubs with live music. Ski-ing and cricket.
  • Weather Preferences
    Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.

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  1. Looks like someone has been out celebrating last night snow with a bottle of my favourite Spanish Cava !
  2. Just look at all those fronts heading for the Alps on Thursday. Picture sent this morning from my village back in Austria. 60cm fresh snowfall this morning. C
  3. Anyway, a bit of winter to look forward to in the shorter term . Thursday morning showing the possibility of some snowfall on higher ground from a trough or shallow low in the Arctic flow. C
  4. Not much consistency from the models this morning at 144t. All struggling to find a route to real cold. Again the UKMO consistent with a trough disruption to Western Britain but even this run mixes the air mass to readily and would be borderline to produce snowfall with the predicted 850mb temps, however this looks the best model going past 144t . C
  5. This chart from Arpege is not without interest in the short term This Thursday could be the first wintry day of the season for some . Looks like a shallow low or trough to move down the Irish Sea into Wales and deposit some snow on the higher ground. Thursday night looks to be very cold over Scotland under the clearing skies and light winds. Further a field more heavy snow and lower temps moving down into the Alps at the same time adding to already record breaking January snow amounts in parts of Upper Bavaria and Austria. Another amazing snow picture from Austria yesterday,=. C
  6. Think they are all leading to cold at 144t but a different route from all these 3 models. UKMO slightly warmer 850mb temps than the earlier run at 144t but the surface flow will be cold. Now all eyes down to see where ECM ends up in the cold range. Looking at the fax charts could be cold enough for some snow showers late Wednesday.early Thursday transferring west to east. 528 dam well into Ireland. C
  7. Yes and still growing. Picture below is from Lammertal in Northern Austrian Alps at relatively low levels ( must be 2.5 m depth of snow ) The chart below shows the next Arctic front heading to the Alps on Thursday with another 100cm being forecast. Another major problem will be increased risk of Avalanches in the coming days as a moist warmer sector prevails and makes the huge weight of snow unstable prior to the arrival of the above mentioned cold front. C
  8. That just crazy. I know that location in Obertauern. Its even worse there this morning. Parts of Austria not seen this amount of snow for many decades. C
  9. I hope the ECM run verifies. The GFS run takes a very different route to cold. I think ECM holds the best prospect for sustained cold. Hope you don't have to wait too much longer for snow in your part of the world. Just mild here in Vancouver with days of cloud and southerly winds. Seen the amazing snowfall currently going on again this morning back in Austria. Looks a dangerous situation developing out there. C
  10. The ECM proceeds to build a block of very cold air to cover most of Central and East Britain out to day 10. C
  11. Morning all in the UK. ECM/GEM all now in agreement with the UKMO at 144t. GFS out on its own. Both UKMO and ECM now in the shorter range show formation of a trough disruption from West of Ireland towards Brittany. UKMO has been consistent with this output for some days now. The second chart shows some backing of the flow across Southern Britain with cold air established ( not only at the surface but 850mb temps showing quite low negative values ). Not sure what will happen in the range 168-240t. Just important to get the cold air embedded and then see what happens. C
  12. This operational chart 850mb temp profile chart (240t ) from ECM does not paint a pretty picture for the British Isles. About the warmest place for its latitude in the whole of the Northern Hemisphere, which in its self is no surprise but based on recent forecasts is not a good chart , especially as the westerly jet is fired up impressively at this time. Lets hope this is a rogue run. Sure these charts post 144 t from latest ECM run will not verify. C
  13. Well, ECM not what I would like to see. No easterly from this run. Looks feasible out to 144t with possible trough disruption then pushes the warmer air mass through out at a pace to be followed by what looks like a strong westerly for a time. I am not buying this run. There is no consistency with its recent op outputs. Put it to bed. C
  14. UKMO again consistent with its output and this is the best model so far for the route to cold in the short term. Looks like the low at the end of the week to track over Ireland and sinking towards Brittany and introducing a easterly component to the flow over Southern Britain next weekend. We need to see ECM go down this route this evening. C
  15. I think UKMO is sending that low next weekend a bit of a different track to the American models , possibly further south over Ireland. UKMO/ECM look very similar at 144t but whether UKMO follows the ECM route, I have doubts at this stage. Forecast of snow boundary ( if at all ) is going to be difficult this far out but colder scenario for all developing as next week progresses.