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carinthian

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carinthian last won the day on November 6 2019

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Katschberg-Ski area in the region of Lungau
  • Interests
    Pubs with live music. Ski-ing and cricket.
  • Weather Preferences
    Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.

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  1. Well in comparison , ECM has a more aggressive low feature , similar to GEM, whilst UKMO and GFS show a more benign one. Maybe there will be some consensus by tomorrow morning. Still think there is a big doubt about next weekends forecast in your part of the world. Meanwhile not looking to bad in these parts ( Eastern Alps ). C
  2. Think the UKMO is showing some uncertainty in the intensity of the low formation to the NW of Britain. This model and others have the low filling rather than deepening at 144t . Lets see how ECM handles this low development. So think based on this run , very uncertain forecast for next weekend. Could end up better than the chart would envisage below . C
  3. Aye , having lived in both Skipton and Horsham, I know exactly what you mean. However, I can tell you, some of the winters down south are so mundane with nothingness , not even a frost or a snowflake to be seen. At least living close to the Pennines, even during the last few appalling mild winters , a snowflake is to be had !
  4. At long last summer has arrived in these parts. A Sunday lunch cheeky pint on the terrace. C
  5. Hi Daniel, maybe the warmest temps looking at the longer term forecasts could again migrate to the NW as Scandinavian height rises as being mentioned in some quarters.. Latest ECM charts show quite cool flow on the continent not far from the SE by day 10, but that's a long way off of course. However, a promising trend after next week for you lot in Blighty. C
  6. Again looks like the ECM run wants to warm up the British Isles by day 10 going by the latest 850mb temp anom chart . A European great divide with trough domination again showing over Central and SE Europe according to the upper flow charts and resulting with some rather large negative 850mb level anomaly temps as seen below.
  7. Greeting from a warm and sunny Eastern Alps ( makes a change ) Lets brighten up proceedings a bit. Latest GFS showing a similar picture to what ECM was showing this time yesterday at day 10. Warmth and pressure rises return the Western Europe/British with trough domination back on the cards for Central and Eastern Europe. Think you lot will gleefully hold out for this result but not sure about me . Enjoy the cool fresh breeze for a few days ! Aye, C
  8. Morning all, ECM springs a nice surprise at 240h. Not really to be unexpected as the pattern so far this summer keeps returning to a default position. (ie) High pressure building over the British Isles, Central European and Atlantic trough dominating. Cooler and windier intrudes fairly short lived . Reasons to be joyful for you lot going by this chart. C
  9. Yes, I agree. Certainly GFS /ECM going for a trough dominated Atlantic to evolve next week, apart from the UKMO that pushes a Azores Ridge over Southern Britain early next week.. Could be a N/S divide without full blown Atlantic . Who would you put your money/ hunch on ? Maybe another twist in the morning / C
  10. Morning all, think ECM charts this morning show reasons to be cheerful for the start of next month. The Geopotential anom chart at 500mb height level (below) shows an anticyclonic weather pattern to influence the British Isles , especially dominant in the southern half with the Northern half more under the influence of a fairly weak maritime cyclonic flow . So this week looks like hotting up before cooler flow pushes in from the Atlantic towards weekend and then fingers crossed for some fine weather to start the new month. Still cold and miserable out here under the upper low circulation, would you believe 5 c now with heating on ! Hopefully, some warm up later this week in the Eastern Alps. Enjoy your Sunday. C
  11. Morning all , a big warm up forecast from the models for mid -week in Western Europe/ including most of the British Isles. Mixed signals from the models regarding how long to lasts but 30c on the cards for some parts for a while. Note again the cooler temps over Central/SE Europe. The upper low has been a real feature for some time in these parts, hence a rather cloudy and none to warm spell in these parts as the disappointed summer continues. The last patch of snow vanished from the garden on 9th June but still plenty of snow patches at 2000m level. C
  12. Continental type summer weather favouring Cheshire so far . Again, warmest spot in the country and thunderstorm capital ! C
  13. Good call NF with the predicted thunderstorm yesterday evening across West Lancashire . C
  14. Morning all, when you look at the 300mb wind flow pattern for next weekend below, its certainly unusual for this time of year. European blocking almost to the extreme. The blocking pressure pattern has now been quite prolonged and is likely to produce some more abnormal statistics . To my mind looks like a extreme winter February chart of 1947 rather than the usual European summer chart/. However, some very interesting weather to follow over the coming 10 days or so for us sky watch lovers. C
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