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About carinthian

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Skipton, North Yorks .
  • Interests
    . TimothyTaylors Boltmaker Best Bitter and live pub music. Ski-ing and cricket.
  • Weather Preferences
    Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.

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  1. Looks like cooler air flow along south coast now. Warmest air mass now shifting to West Midlands, Cheshire and Manchester outside the heat island of London
  2. Extended N Atlantic chart from UKMO brings Tropical Storm Bret into the equation. Only formed yesterday so the track is probably historical at this stage. Its future development and forecast track could throw a whole lot of different data into the models as early as 168t. Maybe one to watch ! C
  3. Yes, UKMO on its own on this one. Low over Newfoundland not going anywhere, according to UKMO , just deepens and becomes slow moving, allowing Azores ridge across the British Isles. More runs like this and then another pulse of hot air from the sub tropics could get back on the agenda post 144t. Whether this is a transient feature or not, there is now a difference taking place between the UK Model and the rest. GEM now moves to ECM and GFS. Interesting to see the extended models later. C
  4. Here is the extended chart from UKMO t168 showing the Azores high ridging northwards.
  5. I refer to this interesting post from Singularity sent yesterday. He always puts another view on the main models and offers an alternative prognosis that may be the outcome. That itself is refreshing and innovative. There appears this morning little consistency between the main models going into next week with UKMO sinking the trough and cutting off the Westerlies with a rise of pressure in Mid Atlantic that builds a ridge to the NW of the British Isles, also born out by the UKMO extended. Maybe a rise in pressure to the NE would now be the favoured longer term outlook ( day 10 ) also indicated by latest GEM. Anyway its been great weather viewing over the past few days with the heat and will SW England temps reach a record tomorrow ?
  6. This latest chart from ARPOPUK brings some impressive upper temps (5000ft level) into range of the SW reaches of the British Isles by mid week after a bit of a cool down further north and east. Could see temps close to 30C in Devon/Somerset. Possibly Cork could be close to a record June temp providing cloud cover stays away . C
  7. What a lovely warm summers evening.and no wind ! Sat in the beer garden drinking Tim Taylors Boltmaker and Dj playing Northern soul. Perfect . C
  8. Looks like we are going to tap in to some of that heat on Wednesday. UKMO and GFS pushes the Atlantic trough threw later in the week to bring in cooler maritime air mass , especially further north, but that a long way off and timing can change. Just enjoy the next 5 days at least and hope Scotland/NI/Cumbria sees some of the sun and heat after such a dull period. C
  9. Oven baked Iberia and Morocco tomorrow. Max heat warning in place for at least 15 provinces this weekend. Temps widely 40C across much of Southern Spain and Portugual. 45c poss in Morocco. Reached 43c in Seville this afternoon , I think that's nearly 110f in old money.
  10. Not according to the latest Met Office outlook Ross. They think warm and humid will move north across Western parts later next week and to move erratically eastwards with associated rain followed by the usual cool Atlantic stuff for your neck of the woods. Hopefully they could be wrong in this particular forecast.
  11. This latest chart ( below ) from ECM at 144t confirms the progress towards a second plume of hot air after this weekend. A rather unusual set up with the main plume moving out of Iberia towards the SW of British Isles. The development of a upper trough from the Azores to the West of Scotland will aid the transfer of heat in 6 to 7 days time , especially up the west side of the British Isles. Expect some real heat this time next week. C
  12. Pre Dawn 850mb chart from AEMET looking good for widespread heat on Sunday. looks like the usual spots to get the highest temps. Forecast for Low humidity and DP levels in Lee of high ground in NE Wales and NE Engalnd would indicate some sort of fohn effect which could induce some locally high temperature readings in these locations to match possibly interior Essex and West of London. Will be good fun monitoring top heat spots. C
  13. Not a bad start to the day. 6 Oxtas cloud cover, mostly Sc base aprox 2500feet. Some cirrus observed . Feels mild at 16c. C
  14. This very latest chart now shows the process of the heat up under way. Currently much of the British Isles in a cooler air mass but by this time tomorrow warmer air will be advancing from the SW. The geo- potential heights show a robust Azores Ridge in development extending towards South Britain. The air mass on its Northern flank is particularly warm with surface air temps shown as high as 25c. Another worthwhile feature is the above normal sea surface temps in the Azores Region ( 2 to 3 c ) anomaly. C
  15. Quickly into the change of air mass during the morning. Now feels fresher but nice in the strong sunshine. Current temp 18c. 4/8th cloud cover, Cu Med, excellent vis. c