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carinthian

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carinthian last won the day on January 17

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Katschberg-Ski area in the region of Lungau
  • Interests
    Pubs with live music. Ski-ing and cricket.
  • Weather Preferences
    Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.

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  1. Re: Above, this mornings latest GFS 300mb jet profile sends it another shift northwards and shows less intensity. At this rate it will be almost out of reach in 7 days time ! Anyway its been a great two weeks visit to the UK and loved the sunshine up in the NW of England. A bit strange the weather here for my last weeks stay in East Sussex but still felt very pleasant. Off to Benidorm tomorrow for a week of Spanish sunshine then back to the Alps to see how our new lift system being presently constructed on the mountain is progressing. Speak in a couple of weeks and hope your good weather ( for most ) keeps going ! C
  2. This mornings GFS 300mb jet profile already changes 24 hours on from the above. Gone is the winter jet profile as shown above ( as being highly unlikely see @Singularity post yesterday.) Subsequent runs taking it further north and will eventually end up in its usual resident high summer position and thats much further north. A change in flow is now being widely forecast by day 10 by all models but at varying intensity. GFS brings back the Azores ridge into play very quickly, especially the south of Britain. So based on the strength of its influence so far this year, especially with its strong ridging to all vectors north, I feel that any westerly intrusion may only have minimal effect. C
  3. I think we have to be a bit cautious regarding the timing of the return of the westerlies. Of course its going to happen sometime sooner than later. However, here lies the problem ( timing ) Todays GFS runs have indicated that route by 240t, but in my experience it is fairly rare for a locked weather pattern to be blown away so quickly. The recent pattern over Europe/ UK has been profoundly stubborn as borne out by some extremes in weather over the past 3 months and drastic changes in the overall pattern ( flow from all points East ) has just not happened, even when longer term forecasts ( UKMO ) had some weeks ago suggested a maritime cooler regime to affect the NW and Azores linked weather to affect the SE. The domination of the block /ridging to all vectors to the north and low heights over Europe / Iberia has been quite a feature. C
  4. Conversely , the Canadian Global Model indicates a less dynamic change in the weather pattern than the GFS. Think this maybe be more on the mark at day 10 with a slower evolution . Of course time will tell . C
  5. Well make what you want of this one from GFS at t240.. Quite a change in the upper air profile over Europe with the Atlantic jet into the heart of Euroland replacing weeks on end of the flabby atmosphere dynamics that have been the dominant feature of UK/ Euro weather . Obviously changes ( slower evolutions ) will occur but I doubt to the speed of this extent, so I remain very wary of the latest GFS output for day 10. C
  6. Quite a shock in store for our Scandinavian friends tomorrow morning. Widespread negative DPs and wind chill. -8C uppers (850mb ) over the Norwegian/ Swedish Alps, so snow in the forecast there. Temp on Saturday was 30c just to the north of Stockholm where my daughter lives. Max tomorrow may be 12c, quite a drop. Thermals back out ! C
  7. With regards to the post above , the main models show the status quo out in the reliable time span of 144t. There after, hints of a change, especially the GFS run but ECM chartsonly slowly evolves to a change as described on @knocker todays early morning short term review . Conversely , the Canadian model below shows the persistent of the block out to 240t with continental influence the main player to UK weather condition. Take you pick .Anyway, one more week in blighty to enjoy and hope the cricket team do a bit better. C
  8. Just hit 29c on the SW coast of Norway. That's quite something for May. C
  9. Not very often you see Lerwick top the current highest temp charts. Currently 19.1c. It is in the same air mass flow that is likely to provide Olso across the water with its highest May temp on record !. C
  10. Lerwick, currently the no 1 hot spot in the UK at 19.1c. In the same air mass that is likely to provide Olso across the water with its highest ever May temp today. c
  11. Heck @knocker just seen your earlier presentation for the weekend weather. You must have been up with the larks to present that ! Anyway what a great post. You should be at HQ to show them how to make clear and simplistic to understand forecasts with the correct rhetoric and clear graphics. Keep up the good work. Look forward to your snow graphics for next winter ! C
  12. The UKMO upper air profile (500mb level ) at 144t it status quo. Again ,any convectional energy dissipates in a Northward direction followed by a renewed build of pressure in the north. The prolonged survival of this set up is quite something . Obviously it is a reverse set up to our normal management of heat energy in the summer. In normal circumstances any heat incursion into the British Isles is usually pushed away eastwards by a zonal North Atlantic trough/ flow. I think yesterdays post by @Tamara preludes as to the causes as to why this may not be happening so far in the early summer season as indicated by the chart below and that's the persistent of high pressure ridging to the north ,either with vectors to the west and east . The upper cold pool over Iberia can only help to sent any energy pulses in a NW ly direction ( against most seasonal norms ). Longer term , we may see an attempt by the Atlantic low pressure to move to its usual position in an Iceland direction but in the meantime the status quo persists and if this continues increased heat plumes are more than likely to be a feature of June weather
  13. The actual real time chart show the synoptics at 12 noon today (below ) compared to the advanced (60t) fax chart shows just how much advanced forecasting has come on in the range out to 72t. Pressure values and frontal positions almost spot on. Well done UK Met Office, certainly these charts provide an excellent prognosis in the short term forecasts. Much better information provided by these charts than the daily worded forecasts they produce for the medium and longer term forecasts. I always remember the words of a senior forecaster I worked with , Stan Francis, " short term weather predictions, determine height, direction, speed and range and know your limits of predictability, anything beyond that the weather will make a fool of you ". I know that forecast models were in their infancy during Stan's forecasting days and things have moved on at a pace but I still hold his words as a kind of sensible logic, as so to speak. C
  14. The ECM 850hpa temperature positive deviation at 240t sort of confirms the longevity of above average temps, especially in the NW of the British Isles. Nearly off the scales in some places ! C
  15. Morning all. If we look at the much broader NH 500mb chart for 240t you just get a picture of how unusual the pressure pattern is over Europe. Just one huge slack or flabby pressure gradient over the land mass and the continued amazing longevity of the presence of high pressure extending to the NW of the British Isles. So based on this chart , not much change. The NW of Britain doing well in the sunshine and above average temps and Southern Britain still at risk to thundery outbreaks triggered by the increasingly convective heat forces over the continent. Maybe as the June progresses plume conditions could bring some hot conditions from Iberia towards Southern Britain. Certainly a very interesting few months of weather synoptics you guys are experiencing. Much better than constant zonal Atlantic flow ( my view anyway ). C
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