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multi cellular thunderstorm

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Everything posted by multi cellular thunderstorm

  1. Pleased to see this new Met Office warning for tomorrow. 70mm in a few hours for "unlucky" locations? I'd change that to lucky! Looking forward to getting out chasing tomorrow.
  2. First visit to the forum for a while! I'm really missing Convective Weather badly. I'd love to see their maps and write ups for the coming days. I wonder if the rare red would have been used? I will however look forward to the Netweather storm forecasts which are pretty much up there with Convective Weather, just something about their risk maps made them the best weather p*rn! I was due to be in the Lakes on Sunday, but illness has freed me up to chase whatever comes up near the North East. Certainly looks promising but there's so much model variation at the moment. One thing is for sure, I'm very glad I'm not doing the Great North Run on Sunday in this heat and humidity! I'm sure the runners would appreciate a downpour.
  3. Temperature still rising here in Durham, peaked after 2pm at 31.9c, dropped slightly with some brief cloud cover but now we're up to 32.2c! This is Durham University with a Stephenson screen. Not far from their record of 32.8c. Tomorrow is just a case of how much that'll be smashed by, could be as much as 6c! Incredible that that's even a possibility.
  4. Made less tense by the fact there will be a new record tomorrow anyway! Nice to have more than one shot at it but I'm pleased this isn't going on for too long, a 2 day blast is enough for me.
  5. Sky News were reporting the RAF Brize Norton runway had 'melted', but further down stated that it had been 'affected but not physically melted' Melted makes a better headline though.
  6. It feels odd sitting here in Durham watching the south struggling up to 38c, knowing that large parts of the North, even County Durham, should reach and exceed that tomorrow. I never thought I'd get to experience near record breaking temperatures this far north! The fact Yorkshire could reach 41c or more is just mind boggling! Just 31.6c in Durham City at the moment, down slightly from a high of 31.9c so far.
  7. I'm at work in Durham keeping an eye on the nearby Durham Uni weather station, which is a proper setup with a Stephenson screen. Highest so far today has been 31.9c, just less than 1c short of the all time (since 1900) record. That's sure to be smashed tomorrow though. Current Weather Conditions at Durham University COMMUNITY.DUR.AC.UK Someone who lives near me in Stanley has reached 31.0 on their station which always seems pretty reliable. Impressive for Stanley!
  8. Up to 31.4c at Durham University weather station, not far short of the all time record of 32.8c. That looks to be be smashed by a good 5-6c tomorrow, I wonder how often temperature records are beaten by such a margin, can't happen very often even in the whole world, never mind the UK.
  9. Looking at how some lively showers popped up in the south last night, I have a bit of hope we might get something potentially overnight tonight, maybe the odd brief pop up storm, there should be enough heat and maybe the early sunrise might help. Some models are breaking out some showers from around North Wales moving north east overnight. Something to keep an eye on. Other than that, the actual breakdown looks fairly quiet at the moment unless I'm missing something. Maybe a bit of potential overnight tomorrow night but it feels like clutching at straws at the moment. What I was originally hoping for was an MCS moving up the country overnight, but little sign of that. Edit: Convective Weather have just put out a forecast highlighting the potential for a few isolated storms... "Perhaps the greatest risk (albeit still very low) is across Wales, the Midlands into northern England during the afternoon and evening hours." http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-07-18
  10. Can I just say, it's such a relief to come in here and take shelter from social media for a bit, I can't believe how low the collective intelligence seems to have fallen. I'm tired of all the "it's just summer" comments, "it was hotter in 1976", "it's project fear" etc etc etc. It's so nice to come back here and find friendly, knowledgeable weather enthusiasts having good discussions in the right way. I was very active on here in the 2000s back when I was young, I thought social media and Facebook groups had taken over but I'm really seeing the value of a specialised forum again! Anyway, the next GFS run is rolling out...
  11. Where did you find those? I was trying last night and couldn't narrow it down beyond 'North East and East England' on the Met Office which wasn't much help. I did find elsewhere the Durham City record was 32.8 set in 2019. The latest model output is insane and has 39C for County Durham, 37C up into Tyne and Wear. Even if that drops down a bit ,records look likely to be smashed! I just hope we get smashed by a proper thunderstorm on Tuesday night.
  12. Just seen the Tuesday maximums and literally just got goosebumps! 40C in the far North East? 42C in Yorkshire? Insane! Also looks like it's bringing some good storms up from the South West on Tuesday night.
  13. Hi all, thought I'd try to pop back onto the forum a bit more after being largely absent for 10 or so years! Good to see some old names and some new ones too, although this particular part of the forum is a little quiet! It's no great surprise as the weather has been largely boring, no significant storm activity to speak of. I'm hoping that might change next week but there's a long way to go before the models firm up on any of that, but a nice round of overnight storms moving up the country at some point looks a possibility. Hope you're all doing well and coping with the warmth. I'm looking forward to a few days of more comfortable temps from Wednesday.
  14. So the 06z GFS looks like bringing the storms in on Tuesday night and further east than the 00z. I'm sure this will keep changing over the next few days. A setup like that would surely bring some pretty epic storms moving off the channel onto land where significant heat would still be available. Would probably create home grown storms overnight too once the moisture moved in. I'm trying to put a bit more commitment into my storm chasing, already been checking out some Travelodges down on the south coast, I might be tempted!
  15. Awaiting the 06z GFS now, but the last couple of runs seem to be offering a bit more hope? GFS seems to be suggesting storms might get going on Monday evening moving up from the south west across across Wales, West Midlands, NW and N England. Still a long way to go but I'm feeling a little more encouraged by the recent outputs.
  16. Must be some very high localised rainfall totals from those cells in Cornwall, they pop up and barely move! Here in Durham it's still sunny, temps around 26c and it feels juicy, hopeful for later but thinking I might need to head west a little, maybe towards Nenthead/Alston area. Looking forward to an exciting evening of radar watching and hopefully storm chasing!
  17. Hi, haven't been on here for years! Just a bit of feedback, not sure if it's been raised elsewhere but I've noticed there's been a small change on the GFS charts page. I've always found it very useful being able to quickly flick between the previous and current run, but now the previous run option is hidden within a drop down menu. I know I'm being picky but it was so easy before and now it's a lot more fiddly. Just wondered if this was an intended change and whether it might be changed back? If I'm missing some kind of benefit of the drop down menu it would be interesting to know.
  18. What a day! Best day of the 5 tours I've done. Stunning tornado and amazing structure and colours...
  19. Sounds fine to me if I get there in enough time. Get to LHR at 13:10 then got to get to T3 and through security etc. This time next week we'll be in the air! Anyone looked at the models? I'm not very good with them but the first few days look quite promising to me but keeps changing.
  20. Yeah that's the one. 3 weeks and counting
  21. I should get into Heathrow 1.5 hours before our flight so I'd be up for meeting Only 24 days to go!
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