jamesbhx

Yes, there is still some discrepancy between the models even at this range. The peak wind gust for Brighton varies between 55 to 87mph across the most recent models, thats quite a wide range.

Quite a bit of lightening visible here

There's no link, just based on pilot reports on the radio at the moment.

CB cloud tops about 38000ft over the channel at the moment, based on pilot reports.

I totally agree. Soil temp down on the Sussex coast around 11c at the moment with the recent warm and dry weather. Not expecting anything to settle apart from perhaps on the very tops of the Downs.

AROME modelling this very intense feature that some are calling a "sting jet". 160/170kph which is pushing 105mph in the light pink zone. That is the cumulative wind chart, not the wind at 0100 localtime.

I haven't trusted the BBC since the weather girl on Midlands Today once said "...brightening up as the night goes on".

Tend to agree, UKMO 12z stronger for the south east. A few frames later on from your chart shows Brighton at 90mph peak gust.

Met Police just declared a "Major Incident" for London due to flooded roadways and multiple persons trapped in vehicles in different locations.

You do realise you've posted a GFS chart for a location in Germany, and not the UK?

High res AROME 12z run showing 70-80+ mph over a large portion of the south coast and channel. Certainly not to be taken lightly and well worth the amber warning from the MetO. Wouldn't mind betting the Needles will see 90+mph from this.

Funnel cloud observed at Shoreham Airport this lunchtime (6th September)

Correct. Amber and Red trigger certain processes with councils, blue light services, power companies, transport and other national infrastructure organisations and operators. Such things like cancelling leave, bringing people in on days off, moving equipment around or safeguarding sites etc. So such decisions are not taken lightly as there is a cost implication for these services when they do. For example, one of my previous employers would block book hotel rooms near to the workplace in case staff were unable to get home, in the event of certain warnings from the Met Office.

Taken from @convectivewx and https://twitter.com/danholley_ twitter accounts.

37.6c RAF Mildenhall

Thunderstorms (albeit only a 30% probability) forecast on both the Gatwick and Lydd airport TAFs between midnight and 0700 tonight.

Just driven from Worthing to Horsham. Mostly rain with more of a sleety mix the closer I got to Horsham. Conditions weren't too bad for driving really, I was expecting more ice.

As someone who knows a thing or two about radar, the beams generally look "up" or at least on the horizontal, not down at the ground. So they only see what is falling in the air, and not what is actually hitting the ground. I regularly see people on these forums wondering why a blob is over them on the radar but they're not seeing anything at ground level - this is why.

Likewise! Although I've "hidden/blocked" quite a few members on that thread which makes reading the model thread more palatable! I'm talking about the serial rampers and doom sayers.

We're now in the period where getting excited over where a line on a map may be drawn is largely irrelevant. Models shows the general area, not an exact it will/wont snow here depiction. Same with thunderstorms, a general area is given but some places will miss out entirely. The closer you are to the edge of a "line", the more you should expect to be disappointed if snow is what you want!

The Shoreham airport webcam pretty good for viewing, has sound too. http://flybrighton.com/live-information/webcam/

The runway webcam at Shoreham Airport is a good one to watch as it also has sound. It looks north towards the South Downs. You occasionally hear the odd train go past! http://flybrighton.com/live-information/webcam/

Message to operators is to fuel accordingly and be prepared for extended holding. Diversion capability limited tomorrow so main diversion options for London limited to near continent, although Amsterdam expected to have strong winds too. Birmingham most likely to be the worst affected simply due to the crosswind component. Leeds will probably struggle too with its runway orientation.

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ everything looks ok from a National Grid point of view...

Remember a radar sees whats in the sky, not whats making it to the ground.