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Everything posted by jamesbhx

  1. Thunderstorms (albeit only a 30% probability) forecast on both the Gatwick and Lydd airport TAFs between midnight and 0700 tonight.
  2. Just driven from Worthing to Horsham. Mostly rain with more of a sleety mix the closer I got to Horsham. Conditions weren't too bad for driving really, I was expecting more ice.
  3. Most likely three military aircraft (probably helicopters) in formation conducting night ops training with limited lighting. They fly with night vision goggles and the red anti-collision light is the minimum they can get away with. Flashing strobes tends to give you a headache if you're wearing NVGs!
  4. As someone who knows a thing or two about radar, the beams generally look "up" or at least on the horizontal, not down at the ground. So they only see what is falling in the air, and not what is actually hitting the ground. I regularly see people on these forums wondering why a blob is over them on the radar but they're not seeing anything at ground level - this is why.
  5. Likewise! Although I've "hidden/blocked" quite a few members on that thread which makes reading the model thread more palatable! I'm talking about the serial rampers and doom sayers.
  6. We're now in the period where getting excited over where a line on a map may be drawn is largely irrelevant. Models shows the general area, not an exact it will/wont snow here depiction. Same with thunderstorms, a general area is given but some places will miss out entirely. The closer you are to the edge of a "line", the more you should expect to be disappointed if snow is what you want!
  7. The Shoreham airport webcam pretty good for viewing, has sound too. http://flybrighton.com/live-information/webcam/
  8. The runway webcam at Shoreham Airport is a good one to watch as it also has sound. It looks north towards the South Downs. You occasionally hear the odd train go past! http://flybrighton.com/live-information/webcam/
  9. Message to operators is to fuel accordingly and be prepared for extended holding. Diversion capability limited tomorrow so main diversion options for London limited to near continent, although Amsterdam expected to have strong winds too. Birmingham most likely to be the worst affected simply due to the crosswind component. Leeds will probably struggle too with its runway orientation.
  10. http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ everything looks ok from a National Grid point of view...
  11. Remember a radar sees whats in the sky, not whats making it to the ground.
  12. Total predicted accumulations as of tomorrow morning. AROME 1.3km model. 00z run.
  13. The thoughts as of mid afternoon today regarding the airport-specific forecasts for tomorrow were for 60% chance of 0-2cm accumulations, 40% chance of 2-5cm and 10% chance in excess of 5cm for all the London airports. - Industry email.
  14. As someone mentioned earlier I think, the use of amber and red alerts are used sparingly as they trigger various contingency plans with government, local councils, emergency services, utility companies and many more sectors. For example in my industry (aviation based) an amber alert for snow would involve placing additional staff on standby and readying equipment and a red alert would likely involve a shut-down of the operation (one of the options anyway). Both of these cost time and money so the MetO do not take such decisions lightly. For example the main electricity company in the affected area tonight, UKPowerNetworks will most likely have brought in additional engineering staff for their nightshift as part of their contingency plan. They may also be readying additional generating equipment too. This is where the cost comes in.
  15. 10m wind gusts on Sunday morning look pretty sporting. Touching 130kph which is 80mph or 70 knots. Surprised no ones mentioned it yet!
  16. Fairly potent cell off the IoW at the moment. Aircraft up to FL380 taking headings to avoid.
  17. I'm in Shoreham by Sea at the moment. Absolutely threw it down about an hour ago. Occasional thunder at the moment but all very embedded. Just grey, murky and very humid!
  18. Just finished a teleconference with various airlines, the Met Office and airports. The highest risk is for Luton and Stansted (and the area in between, sort of M1 to M11) for 1-2cm overnight through til about 6am. No significant accumulations are expected anywhere else in England and whatever falls is most likely be rain or sleet. The greater risk is for low cloud bases and poor visibility associated with rain/drizzle/sleet. I'd say the area defined by a box shaped Luton-Stansted-Cambridge-Milton Keynes has the highest risk of seeing snow which will settle.
  19. Thanks! I've seen a few funnels in that location over the past few years, particularly with a northerly wind versus a sea breeze set up as occurred this afternoon. I'm pleased to report the yacht and aircraft were fine - it looked a lot closer than it appeared!
  20. Two funnels just observed off the coast of Shoreham by Sea, Sussex at approximately 4pm this afternoon.
  21. Remember that the radar looks up rather than at the ground. It's likely snowing or raining at altitude but not making it to ground level.
  22. Yes quite a few go arounds tonight. I have my own measure of whether the wind is significantly strong or not, and that is when I can hear it on the opposite side of the house to the direction it's blowing from - and right this moment I can hear it.
  23. Hi Dale, Nice project. As someone who makes and deals with METARs daily I thought I'd just give you some background. You're correct in that METARs are timestamped :20 or :50. The observation "window" actually begins 5 minutes before and lasts until 5 minutes past the scheduled METAR time. This is to allow time for the observer to make the observation and enter it in to whatever system they are using. The METARs are then sent via a link to the Met Office for quality control. Once QC'd they are send in to the wider world. Because of this time window, transmission delay (due to message priority) and QC its often at least 5 or 10 minutes after the published time that METARs start to appear on the various websites/apps/platforms etc. There are things called SPECI reports too which are coded METARs but are only send in certain occasions. They are timestamped with the actual time sent, rather than a 50 or 20. They occur when a certain met criterea is met, or a change of weather occurs between two METAR obs which requires updated information to be sent. To my knowledge SPECIs are only sent to the Met Office and to local ATC units rather than the whole world, but if someone knows different then please say! Most of the different weather types you list, Squalls, Volcanic Ash etc are very very rarely reported. It may be better if you coded wind strength as an indicator. This would at least show which stations have stronger winds and which don't. Also as the METAR period exists for 30mins, it would be better if the stations listed still showed up after 30mins, again due to the lag in getting data. Perhaps remove an airfield from the screen if it hasn't had updated METARs for two consecutive observations.
  24. Fairly lively thunderstorm with some very close lightning strikes here in Horsham. About 5-10 minutes of monsoon style rain and hail.
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