Portland Paul

Isle of Portland, calm with unbroken sunshine and unusually hot. Last night's min 21.6 c, then already 24 c by 8.20 am. 25 or 26 for much of the day in very weak sea breezes, and still 24 here @ dusk. Possibly a second consecutive night to come of remaining above 20 c

My patchy recollections from a young age, from Birmingham (and some resorts for later in the month): May 1982 - prolonged hot and sunny period in south Devon. May 1983 - A fairly wet month. Severe thunderstorms in IOW towards the end. May 1984 - Warm at times at first, but a really wet and chilly second half. May 1985 - Wet, murky for a time 20th to 23rd. Warmer and thundery in south Devon 25th and early 26th. Washout BHM 27th. Much warmer & sunny to end. May 1986 - Average; some nice days in Weymouth at the end. May 1987 - Quite poor, but some nice days later. May 1988 - Thunderstorms on 1st. Quite a few warm, sunny days. Poor later. May 1989 - A cracking, sunny and warm or hot month. Thunderstorms in fourth week, then a much cooler end.

That sounds like an interesting weather event, in what was afterwards a very mild and very dry December 1988 for much of the UK

A rather dismal early June, but soon followed by much better weather with really hot and dry conditions in the middle part and shortly after. More unsettled towards the end, with light winds and some heavy rain around. July, much more settled again from the start with many very warm and sunny days. Predominantly dry too. Lasting until gone mid month, with a few hot days. The fourth week, more unsettled with rain or showers at times, and cooler in stages. August, generally changeable and breezy first half, then a more settled and warm or very warm and mostly dry second half. September, much cooler and unsettled. Unseasonably chilly a few days into the month with heavy showers and hailstorm in an unstable northerly. Very windy mid month. Overall, a pretty decent summer, but more disappointing in the middle, and a poor September.

The 2013-14 winter, though mild and wet, was IMO surreal, due to its unusually frequent and violent storminess, coupled with well above average sunshine - one of the sunniest winters on record I believe. This especially turbulent winter lacked cold and snow for many (and here in Portland, Dorset never fell below 4 c!) but was not exceptionally mild either. It was certainly exceptionally wet and extremely windy and very sunny, which in my book doesn't make it a 'usual winter'.

May 1991 is one of my least favourites, due to its dry, calm, cool and persistently dull and overcast weather, as high pressure got stuck over or near Scotland. Similar conditions also characterised the following winter, especially January and late February 1992, with the high sitting over southern Scandinavia quite often, and resulting bland, overcast and hazy conditions resulting. Other least favourites include the cloudy, cool, breezy westerly summers of 1987, 1998 and 2011. The awful soggy period of mid April to mid December 2012. The cold May of 1996. The rather drab 2000 summer. The dull, close month of August 2002, and cool, wet cloudy August 2008. And the flat, boring year that was 2015, with prolonged westerly or north-westerly winds, bringing a lot of breezy and cloudy weather with not much proper soaking rain for the gardens

In Birmingham, February 1985 with the blizzards of 8th-9th followed by a long sunny period of severe frosts and huge icicles over 12 feet long. Or 8th August 1992, a strange Saturday late evening of dense fog combined with torrential thunderstorms and vivid lighting. Or 10th - 14th February 1998 with its phenomenally Mediterranean warm, sunny spell and temperatures of 18 or 19 c. Or perhaps 6th April 2008 (two weeks after Easter) waking up to over a foot of snow which had flattened the bamboos in the garden! In Portland, Dorset, the spectacular thunderstorms of early May 2011 and late May 2017, with colossal amounts of lightning on both occasions. Or the 14-15th February 2014, with that particularly severe storm (after so many that winter) which forced closure of the Chesil Beach Road for over 15 hours, and left salt spray to the extent that windows all over the island looked like they'd been sprayed with milk, plus some evergreen plants took over 2 years to recover afterwards such as they'd been burned so badly! Or the double whammy of heavy snow in March this year, the depth not seen on the Island for nearly 40 years, with 18 cm of level snow on 18th and 19th. Followed of course by the scorching summer, with lawns turning to straw (and still some of them recovering)

May have been my mistake if the 18z hadn't fully rolled out, and Friday's run on the TWO site was still apparent, whoops

No, it was the 18z, but as I expected in the 8 - 10 day time frame it appears to be an outlier, with the 00z (as you posted) amongst subsequent runs playing with the general idea of waxing and waning Azores influence and some mobility for the N and W UK

GFS 18z run sticks us straight back into the furnace by next weekend, then keeps a stubborn strong high over southern Scandi, with bags of heat and humidity around in a slack continental flow and a few scattered T-storms especially in the west... Is this signs of the epic 2018 summer putting the icing on the cake???

We can't expect 3 months of heat and sunshine in this country, but it is still possible. Especially if any Atlantic interference in mid range and FI continues to be pushed back or be aborted time and again! My money is on many more weeks of high pressure and heat!

Clear, sunny and very warm @ 21.3 c and a 4 mph easterly. Had already reached 18 c before 8 am, after overnight low of 13.5 c. All way above the surrounding sea temperature, with little wind, our wedge is well heated!

Candlemas, 2nd February, if clouds and rain, winter is gone and will not come again.. probably works just as well too, as a dull, wet end January/ early February may tie with a progressive mild pattern (as in 2011 after the severe first half of winter). The clear and bright scenario certainly worked this year, for February and March!

Hi all, Does anyone have any stats or satellite pics etc regarding the evening and overnight period of this intense belt of thunderstorms moving north through England and Wales? Off memory, May 1991 was very dry, dull and cold, then June 1991 became very wet and was mostly cool. During the first few days in July, low pressure sank southwards into Biscay allowing very warm and humid easterly airflow to affect the UK. Later on Friday 5th, torrential downpours moved up from the Channel to bring a succession of intense thunderstorms overnight in the Midlands, and it felt remarkably sultry and tropical. Anyone with any recollection of this night?

Merry Christmas Paul, and to one and all! Just gone through the 6z GFS; after several mild and cloudy days until Christmas Day, we go into a few turbulent days, with some shots of cold air over the northern half of the UK, so the chance of wintry showers, maybe a surprise snowfall for a few