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geoffw

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  1. has tamara or GP said anything about the long range outlook and if so what was said ?
  2. geoffw

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    how much snow did newport get ?
  3. geoffw

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    my nephew and niece live in newport, so i'm hoping they get a lot of snow. So when and how much snow are they likely to get
  4. geoffw

    Hurricane Harvey

    god forbid it but do you guys think this could end up as bad as katrina?
  5. what are your opinions of august for weather ?
  6. i know you don't like discussing the ec46 but what does it show knocker ?
  7. geoffw

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    roll on mid jjuly
  8. i certainly hope GP is right and I hope NI can enjoy some more good weather
  9. what does the latest ec48 show for july knocker?
  10.  

    @geoffw  Long range NWP to be watched closely for trend through second half of May in tropical convection and associated response in extra tropics for direction of travel in both atmospheric angular momentum tendency and global total atmospheric angular momentum. Steady eastward progress and increased amplitude of MJO through the Indian Ocean towards Maritimes and Western Europe engaging positive frictional and mountain torques will add swathes of westerly wind inertia to the atmosphere and should pave the way for a downstream rossby wave pattern response that favours an Atlantic trough and West European Branstrator ridges into the turn of the new month and the start summer. 

    A potentially sustained warm pattern as it can be taken as continued willingness of the atmospheric circulation to embrace the warming trend in the Pacific and a move towards a weak El Nino though the summer and into the autumn.

    Continued negative tanking of the SOI is a good broadscale atmospheric indicator that this process is well supported, as it indicates increased cloudiness close to the dateline in the Pacific and willingness for convection spikes over warming SST's to sustain westerly global wind flows - and support downstream ridge amplification across Europe.

    Alternatively any faltering of tropical and extra tropical signals will signify unwillingness of atmosphere to couple with ocean signal, restricting uptick in atmospheric angular momentum and result in a more Nina-ish global pattern with anomalous ridges in both Pacific and Atlantic with downstream trough over UK and Scandinavia. A cool and rather unsettled pattern.

    Keep checking the Global Wind Oscillation for progress. This is a key measure of total global wind-flows through the tropics and extra tropics and will help anticipate NWP evolution.

  11. what did the ec46 show ?
  12. geoffw

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    does anyone know of any good steakhouses in belfast, particularly ones which give a steak challenge? thanks
  13. geoffw

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    do you guys think bangor will see lying snow ?
  14. geoffw

    Premier League Discussion

    do you guys think chelsea will beat spurs?
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