mike Meehan

Around here - Watford - it hasn't - we've been in + territory for quite a bit during the last week, garden pond finally condescended to freeze over last night but now temps are up to a scorching 1.4C - still snowing though

Yes, I remember that 'thaw' about 26.01.1963 - it made me feel quite depressed, as though I was losing a good friend. However, all was not lost, it was only there for 2 or 3 days before my mate, 'Snowy' returned

er, pass, ask me another

So what does this mean?

I often see 'short and long waves' referred to but not sure what they are. Could somebody explain please what they mean in terms simple enough for my aged brain to understand.

Correct me if I am wrong because I have never lived in a climate with cold continental winters but I get the impression that though cold they are much drier most of the time and the human body is able to withstand dry cold and dry heat more easily than damp cold and humid heat. The only thing I can relate to is when I have been out on a dry calm sunny day with a temperature of -5C it does feel relatively comfortable, whereas going out on a wet day with high humidity, it can feel cold enough to freeze your proverbials off.

Not necessarily - there was still plenty of snow, from what I have been told, in March '47 and on 07/08.03.2010 we had quite a snow storm in the South of France and the remnants of this lasted for a week - that same year, there was snow on relatively low hills in the region of Toulouse and I haven't done a physical check of this but my memory indicates that there have been more white Easters in my life time than white Christmases.

Give me a chance - I am an old dog trying to keep up with youngsters - when I did my course in 1960 a lot of the things referred to on this site had not been discovered and even though I am only just starting to learn I wonder if the stratosphere is a 'no go zone' in respect of the various models we are getting.

The man was on the box this evening explaining about the warming of the stratosphere - apparently this warming started about a couple of weeks ago and it is this which encouraged the polar air to break out of its box. As far as I am aware this theory has been around for the last couple of years or so but I expect with increased observations we are now starting to get more of a handle on it and it may be that this would be a good forecasting tool. As far as the Sandy highs are concerned, I think that the important thing is that they are cold and being cold they are more dense and the westerlies require more energy to move them, so they can tend to stay put - at the same time, this does not explain December when the temps in Scandinavia and west Russia were much lower, yet they gave up without hardly a squeak, or was it because the strat was still relatively cold, or the jet stream was stronger then? We also have the mysterious dissipation of the cold spell at the end of 2010 when for my area it was quite a bit colder than what it was now and so far longer lasting. Clearly the models are only a guide and by the sound of it, some better than others and I wonder if they are missing vital bits of information, such as the stat temps. So far this week the thaw has been progressively put back, so that now instead of arriving at the beginning of the week, it is now due at the end and I wonder how much further it will be put back. I noticed this same thing occurring during the cold spell of Dec 2010 and during the winter of '63 it appeared to be a natural inclination of some of the forecasters I worked with to try and bring in the westerlies. The point being that we get some cold snaps which are merely brief passing episodes and others where the cold decides to dig in its heels and telling which is which sometimes appears to be difficult.

As far as I have noticed the opposite seems to be happening as far as Watford is concerned, the temperatures rarely get down to the forecast level, in fact it is showing -0.1C at the moment of writing - we must be on our own little heat island anybody fancy coming over for a barbie over the weekend

I am a strange fellow - I have always loved the snow and a good fall, especially of the dry powdery stuff still gets me excited, yet at the same time I hate being cold. I remember when I were't lad in north Lincolnshire when the wind started to increase during the afternoon then after a little while it started to snow and it's intensity increased as the day wore on - so much so, that in the middle of the night I put on my slippers, then my dressing gown over my panjams and went outside so that I could experience it in all its glory and watch the the snow drifts taking shape in the wind. Funny enough I don't recall feeling cold on that occasion but the following morning I was a little disappointed to see it must have abated shortly after I went back to bed, after a fall of say, some 8 or 9 cms. On the other hand I think the snow of '63 lasted just about long enough and it was great whilst it lasted but come March one's thoughts tend to go towards the anticipation of spring. If it weren't for the occasional snow fall such as we had today I would happily hibernate through the winter months. I hate dark gloomy weather but the snow makes things lighter. I don't think that the enjoyment of snow is confined to us humans - when we had dogs I could see that they absolutely loved going for walks in the snow, especially if it was somewhat deep and went 'ape' running through the drifts

Diffcult to measure round my house 'cos it has been drifting but I would estimate 5 to 6 cms on te level with 30 cm drifts - got a lull at the moment but the radar promises more. Temp rose slightly above freezing at midday but now -0.7C and preciptiation just staring again but very slight.

Looking at Friday's fax chart, it looks to me that with the two lows hanging out to the west, one could travel to the north east and the other to the south east leaving the HP mostly intact with the possibility of snow from the southern most once since it is pretty near the channel - I would have thought they would have followed the line of least resistance. http://www.netweathe...s;type=fax;sess= Click on 96 hours

At the moment the Atlantic is forecast to break through in about a week's time but who knows, if that Scandy High is able to dig in its heels, it may be another story for some time yet - I personally work on the theory that if the cold can get sufficiently entrenched, it becomes that much more difficult to shift it. As it is some of the the central Euro temps have not been that particularly cold lately but should the westward drift force them down, it may be encouraged to develop - a week is still a long time in meteorology.

That radar speak with forked tongue - it said precipitation at Watford at 0115 - it still say precipitation but roads dry and I see nothing coming down - I even opened the window and shone torch but still no sign.

I know exactly what you mean - the powdery stuff as well which we so rarely get - I think that what we need is an area of intense cold over Europe so that it it gives a chance for a blocking high to build but at the moment the temps are just a little below normal. Bearing in mind the warming effect of the North Sea we need the max temp down to about -8C at Amsterdam to be assured of a good 'ice day' over here. I feel like giving up on the current situation and looking forward to a warm sunny spring

The 18Z looks as though it could produce a Thames streamer if it can pick up sufficient moisture from the Channel - however there should be a bit of precipitation in tha LP.

Not overly optimistic about a 'Beast from the East, at the moment - as far as I see it the continental and Scandi temps are a tad too warm for anything meaningful like ice days of -5C and any snow we get it likely to be on the wet side and not long lasting. There is still time for a situation to develop but a repeat of the December figures on the continent coupled with a strong easterly would be needed, otherwise it is likely to be a case of snow followed by rain then rain followed by snow with max's mainly above zero for my part of the world.

I must admit that though I am still a little boy of 70 years of age I get very excited by the prospect of snow, especially if the lovely powdery stuff is in the offing and spend ages looking at the various charts in hope, often to be disappointed but that's life.

Naw, they got plenty in 1963 and on the Scilly Isles as well.

Checking over the other forecast sites fo my area of Watford, the 'weatheroutlook' is the only one to have snow for Saturday evening - suspect we have a forecaster's nightmare in the offing.

Why not - they get snowed on in Southern France

and looking even further ahead http://www.meteociel...&ech=384&mode=0 Block of cold approaching from east - if that LP gets into SW approaches it could make things interesting http://www.meteociel...&ech=204&mode=1 Suitably cold 850's http://www.meteociel...4&code=0&mode=5 Jet stream gone south But it is a long time ahead - either wishful thinking on the part of La Méteo, or it may come to fruition - who knows at this stage apart from the Daily Express

I dunno, I reckon that in a fortnight's time there is a good chance that the sunset will be later than what it is today, probably about 1630 hours in the London area

My point of view is that I believe the case for Global Warming has been overstated and it appears that in some cases the figures have been fiddled so that it is being used cynically by politicians to gain more through carbon taxes but it has not been ruled out altogether - it is just that it is rising at a lower rate than predicted and also taking a pause for breath on the way and that the figures just released from the Met Office put the situation in a better perspective. I believe that it has been proved beyond doubt that the amount of carbon di oxide in the atmosphere together with other greenhouse gases does, will and has had an effect on the global temperature and we have a duty for future generations to try and keep it in check. Currently it is no warmer today than what it has been at other times in the Earth's history and there have been some periods when it has been considerably warmer. I believe that the warm period of circa 1,000 years before the Little Ice Age temperatures were very much the same as they are now. So my view is that we should continue to make research into methods of generating sustainable energy and bring these methods into use but in a much more sensible way, whilst at the same time making efforts to increase the flora of this planet to help take out the excess. There is no need for Mr Mainwaring to panic, there will be only a relatively small rise in temperatures in the foreseeable future and rising sea levels are not going to inundate our coastal cities just yet. The probability of more severe storms will remain with us - we have had them in the past and they will remain with us in the future - most are caused by a number of different aspects all coming together at the same time; however a global increase of just 0.4C represents a hell of a lot of energy and sometimes this can give unexpected results. The big danger I see is that some of the mad scientists might have a try at reducing the amount of solar radiation, overcook it and plunge us towards an ice age with catastrophic results in respect of food production.