mike Meehan

GW - it fits in very nicely with a topic I started, 'Noah's Ark and All That' - http://forum.netweat...k-and-all-that/ A program by Joanna Lumley on Noah's Ark started off my thoughts - Flood legends are worldwide and this led me to think of the possibility that the increased levels were caused by the melting of ice from the last ice age (I have it in my mind that the sea levels were raised by some 150 metres overall) - during her program references were made to other civilisations that were some 12000 years old, so it could take the date of organised settled living much further back. Because cities and towns were mostly constructed at or near sea level the remaining ruins are likely to be submerged beneath our current sea, making evidence of their original existance more difficult to find, though there is no reason why they should not have built at higher levels as well.

Since I am now into 'extra time', so I do not expect any significant changes in the rest of my lifetime - as it is, it seems that the extra heat in the system does lead to more extreme weather but I do wish that that damned jet stream would find somewhere else to for its summer holidays other than the UK - I keep telling it that Iceland is very nice At the same time for average temperatures, rainfall and sunshine records to remain average, there must be some balancing from time to time, so I am expecting that we should get some good summers in the next few years - Roll on the Azores and the Euro Highs - If this does not happen it would indicate that we are entering a different stage.

The ideal situation is that it should be a straightforward search for the truth of the matter - unfortunately whoever is providing the wherewithall for such research is bound to colour opinions and affect the results. There are too many vested interests in this subject.

This certainly appears to be more realistic - the date from which the calculations have been based is 1750 and at that time it has to be remembered Europe and North America were in the midst of the Little Ice Age at the time, though the jury still seems to be out on whether this was a global cooling or just restricted to the Northern Hemipshere, and that part of the warming until 2000 could have been the natural 're-warming' cycle after the Little Ice Age. It is now well known that there have been fluctuations in the Earth's climate for as far as we have been able to get evidence from examining ice cores, sediment deposits, the examination of tree rings and other methods which have indicated a past record of climate which appears to be generally accepted. Whilst man made activites are adding more CO2 to the atmosphere it appears that some of this is being taken up by such things as the absorption of more CO2 by plants and the worlds' oceans. So things are not as bad as we were first led to believe - however having said that, it is not a time for complacency because there is no denying even by the sceptics that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that continued release of this gas into the atmosphere would eventually put us in the realms where it could create a serious problem. Unfortunately the supporters of man made global warming appear to have overstated their case either by design or accident leading on governments to leap on this subject as a means of raising extra taxes which many of us can ill afford and have given this subject a bad name amongst many of the populace - a case of crying wolf. I believe that what this does mean is that we still have to continue to develop methods of generating renewable energy but is should give us more time to develop systems which are more efficient and less of a burden in taxes and running costs to Mr & Mrs Joe Public and at the same time make efforts to reverse the current de-forestation and reverse this trend on a worlsd scale because our vegetation is vital in re-absorbing the CO2 we put into the atmophere. I've mentioned the idea a couple of times before of using photovoltaic panels in such areas as the Sahara desert in order to power desalination plants, thereby creating an ever increasing fertile region through irrigation. Of course this will be subject to the increasing influence of Al Qaeda in that region deciding whether such a project would be the will of Allah. Though the increased vegetation would help take out some of this CO2 and as the area under cultivation increases it would create its own mini climate in the area. In any case I am hopeful that such organisations won't be there forever. However, with increasing populations we really need to make more agricultural land available and also increasing populations will lead to more CO2 being discharged as their living standards rise and they are able to afford more CO2 producing items such as manufacturing, transport and heating.

4.8C

Perhaps looking at a brief cold spell about 08.02.2013 with a greenie high and a scandi low bringing us into a N to NNE air stream

Oh yes I did and I still love 'em

Overall disappointing for Watford, most of our days were in +values and some of the nights as well - we did get a bit of drifting snow early on and I suppose the net depth before yesterday was some 5 to 7 cms - it was mostly cloudy with only two frosts of any note, the first -2.8C and the other -4.8C. Didn't get any snow at all from last nights event - it rained here I'd like to make a request that the next time we get something like a scandy high set up for the near continental temps to be a bit colder, say about -8C max for Amsterdam - this would allow for a bit of warming of the air across the North Sea but still reaching us comfortably sub zero . In addition if would like dry air with low dew points but still able to get the best out of the low wending its way up the channel with a deposit of say 25 cms of powdery snow drifting nicely in an easterly wind to be followed by lovely clear skies and sunshine - I'm not really asking for much - am I?

Thanks - I haven't seen snow like that for yonks - it reminds of when we got stuck over Lincolnshire Wolds when I were't lad - see my blog.

Speaking for Watford, the overall impression of the winter to date is 'gloomy' - we had a fairly cold first half of December, then mild until after the first week of Jan, when we experienced the first real snows of the winter but here during this cold spell we retained cloud cover for most of the time, most of the days and some nights recovered to plus values so as a result we had few hard frosts, the coldest being a -2.8 and a -4.8C, but overall very little sunshine and currently it is still cloudy with a temp of +2c. I must say I was a little suprised yesterday afternoon and evening to receive further snow in the form of showers which were not forecasted for our area, however it did not amount to much, only about a cm since the temperature was in positive values, though it could have been 2 to 4 cms had it been colder. There is a difference between what I would like to see happen and what is likely to happen - my wish list is for another fortnight of cold but with powdery snow, ice days with blue skies, to be followed by a pleasant warming into spring. The likelihood is that we will get stuck in the mildish westerlies for probably the next 3 weeks after this weekend being followed by another coldish spell which could either come by northerlies which do not normally give great amounts of snow unless we get a polar low bumping into us, or, which is preferable an easterly. At the moment we still have a continental high which appears to be making tracks east in the near future. Continental temperatures are falling just at the moment but whether this will be enough to encourage it to grow and spread westwards, I am not quite sure. The more likely, I think is for the greeny high to build a little with lows over Scandy introducing the northerlies I mentioned. Following on from that I would expect variable weather with the mild westerlies alternating with the cold northerlies carrying us through to the end of April interspersed with the influence of a high giving us some settled weather for a few days at a time. In some ways an unusual winter for us, yes, above average snow but not really the low temperatures I associate with such a cold spell, though they have occurred in other parts of the country.

Easter very often is colder than Christmas and we very often get 'daffy snow' in the spring - it might be interesting to make a comparison table

By the time we have got through the next 5 weeks I will be happy to see warmth, blue skies and sunshine with light evenings - the only redeeming of feature of winter for me is the exitement of a good fall of powdery snow followed by clear blue skies and sunshine otherwise you can keep the cold damp grey short days.

My whole point is that at the moment I don't believe that there is really sufficient evidence to conclusively prove or deny global warming one way or the other is man made to the extent that is being claimed by some quarters per se, apart from the fact that we do know that co2 is a greenhouse and that the continued pumping of this out into the atmosphere is bound to have some warming effect but it appears to me that the case for global warming in some quarters has been overstated. Greenland was called 'Greenland' circa 1000 + years ago by the Vikings, who called it that name because the coastal areas actually were green, at least in the summer, to encourage settlers there. Settlers did go with their livestock and seeds and were able to sustain a living through the growing of crops and sufficient fodder to keep themselves and their animals going through the winter months. They were fine until the onset of the 'Little Ice Age' when cooling meant that such cultivation was no longer possible and the settlers starved to death in some cases, or if they were lucky managed to get away but either way the settlements were no longer able to sustain that life style. This is just one example and from sediments and tree rings etc the experts were able to deduce that at that time the climate was as warm as we have had it this last few years and this was in a time when the burning of fossil fuels on the planet was virtually nil. Throughout history we have had extreme weather events but the difference between then and now appears to be from the experts that some of the events we have had lately are occuring more frequently but the same records were not being kept in the past as they are now and are more of an anecdotal manner, though archeologists have been able to determine that some communities had abandoned there habitats in the Americas through continued droughts. In the 1970's some climate scientists were predicting a global cooling and it was suggested that we would be getting colder winters but this never came to fruition in that way. I am not an expert but have something of an enquiring mind and not always ready to accept what I am being told at face value without checking. It may be that the 1970's scientists were right but the global cooling is being counteracted by global warming, which may be an explanation for what appears to be disturbed weather patterns of today - I don't know and I do not believe that anyone else does at this stage either - more research is needed before we can know for sure. All I can say is that to take up an entrenched position on one side or the other and to 'cherry pick' differing aspects to support their view is wrong and that in all probablity the truth of the matter lies somewhere in between the two camps. As more knowlege is gained through continued research the time may come when it might be possible to settle this debate but until then I would suggest it advisable to maintain an open mind amenable but questioning to all the differing views. I agree that it would be wrong to place too much emphasis on 'blips' which may turn out to be part of the natural cycle - my position in this thread remains that we do not know what is causing our apparent variations of weather - it may be as a result of extra energy in the atmosphere which could be connected with global warming, or they could be as a result of normal variations which have occurred throughout recorded history but in order to learn more this does need to be treated as an open subject.

WE, I get the impression that it is only those who have an opinion one way or the other will decide to post - for myself I would feel reluctant to post on a subject I cannot express an opinion about - in other words I suspect there is probably a silent majority - I suppose this could be resolved through checking those who have actually posted on the subject against the total number of members, though this is likely to take a lot of trawling through previous posts unless the controllers have devised a method of collecting these stats automatically. Personally I doubt that the undecideds are being put off by the polorisations of opinions. For myself I started off as a believer, taking in Al Gores film hook line and sinker but after researching previous fluctuations in climate I am of the belief that a lot of the warming is due to natural cycles but by the same token I realise that the CO2 is likely to have an affect and would eventually lead to an increase in man made warming. But on the other hand certain people in estimating the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas have brought their cause into discredit and I can also see reasons for governments to back this global warming and use it as an excuse to pile on extra taxes. For my part I try to do what I can personally do within reason to limit the output from our household by using solar power and a heat pump on our house in France, together with insulating as much as possible within reason and now starting a similar project for our UK house. Of course you could say that by not travelling to and from these houses I would save that much more energy but we need to keep a balance and life is also for living. I'm just lucky that I managed to get in a position to do these things and at the same time note the change in the winters in the south of France, where the incidents of snowfall appear to be increasing.

Don't worry about wasting a week of winter Brady, without a doubt we will get it back in the spring - such is our climate

Haven't seen any snow at Watford this evening - the radar appears to be telling porkies again. Still +2C - at this rate our snow will be melted before the thaw comes

But Ian, Climate Change may be the reason for our winters changing.

WE, I'm not sure what you mean by ' anyone on NW has an undecided view on climate change' - if you mean the forecasting staff you are probably right but if you mean the members of the forum I would expect them to be divided between 'for', 'against' and undecided. Each of these groups could probably learn further from being exposed to varying points of view. In order to advance and learn we should not necessarily accept something somebody says just because they said it but we should think about it and if we disagree or don't understand we should say so, possibly further explanations wioll help us to understand further.

I get your point but wouldn't it be better, say for the undecided to be acquainted of both sides of the argument, that way if they are able to see the two sides it may help them to get to a more balanced view. Global warming or possible climate change makes such an impact on our lives today and the way climate changes affects our weather and I would suggest that it is an important part of the forum and that to proscribe this section is tantamount to throwing the baby out with the bath water. I can understand that the mods, who I suspect do this work entirely on a volunteer basis, get a little bit pee'ed off with the intransigent ones on both sides amongst us; perhaps the problem could be overcome by enlarging the moderating team to cater for the extra workload which this causes. whilst at the same time insisting that the normal rules of courtesy continue to be applied. To put it another way - I get so annoyed with the anti European rhetoric in the current mass media which does little promote any pro European views and as a result I would have little faith in a referendum, which in my view could end up with the UK shooting itself in the foot, so I can also understand others who feel they do not get a fair crack of the whip.

I don't really see why - in my view discussion of climate, whether or not it is changing and whether or not the changes are man made is a valid and legitimate subject for discussion and if attempts are being made to suppress it I won't be best pleased. After all climate stems from weather. Admittedly views can get heated at times but it is not as drawing cyber pistols in a duel at dawn will kill or injure anybody - we should all be grown up enough to take the varying different points of view in our stride and people should be free to express them provided they remain within the bounds of common courtesy,

Looking at the fax charts, there seems to be a big jump between the 96 and the 120 and as far as I can make out the low which is on the sw tip of Greenland on the 96 suddenly ends up just to the nw of Scotland, while a euro high develops and is further north than what was shown on previous runs. The temps in central/north Europe appear to be falling, so would this give encouragement to the high? It seems to me as though the fat lady is still sitting down.

I agree with you inasmuch as since 1963 when I left the Met Office, there have been enormous strides made in research and computer programs, so much so that a lot of the terminology used today is somewhat akin to a foreign language to me today. However having said that I do wonder whether at times too much reliance is being put on the computer models, which at the end of the day are only as good as the information put in, albeit that the latest forecasts have been quite accurate in the short term and under favourable conditions can be fairly accurate up to 5 days ahead. At this stage of the evolution of meteorology there still has to be a fairly large human imput to interpret the different signals correctly and this is where the experience and if I dare say it, the intuition of the forecaster also comes into play together with a willingness to look out of the window and see what is actually happening. To illustrate what I mean, the forecaster who correctly forecasted a weather window for the D Day landings in 1944 is not lost on me and at that time he would have had nothing like the information what is available today, nor the other wartime forecasters who had to use their experience to determine the weather conditions over Germany with the only possible source of information, apart from that which had already passed by and that of returning aircrews who very often had their first priority of trying to remain alive, with perhaps the odd agent, if he thought about it. But as I suggested in an earlier post, improvements are likely as a result of the continuing research, though human experience, knowlege and expertise is still vital in making an accurate forecast.

In the last few years we have had some significantly colder spells especailly after the milder winters of most of the noughties, though this changed towards the end with snowfall at the end of October, which I had never experienced before. For most of my life the early threats of wintry precipition tended to come about mid December, then it was usually a mild Christmas, though there have been some exceptions with the first real snows arriving, when they did, (if I recall correctly 1960/61 was a snowless winter with I believe a Bartlett high predominating) during January or February. During some of the years we experienced some very cold spells with highs in the region of -5C but although this last session has been snowy, it has been nothing like as cold as that but I put that down to the cold being less intense on the continent, at least in Germany and Poland. I was quite impressed by the forecaster, two or three nights ago on the TV, who gave us a small insight into Sudden Stratospheric Warming and how it can affect the normal pattern of atmospheric circulation and the jet streams and although this idea is still in its infancy the cause and effect of this particular cold spell was explained, so I tend to give it some weight. This leads me on to wonder what does cause this sudden warming. - it can't be the direct action of the sun because those polar regions are in darkness 24/7, though even with the air as this as it is at those altitudes it must take quite a lot of energy, so if it is not coming directly from the sun where does it come from? The only thing I can think of off the top of my head is that it could be an interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and incoming radiation from space, which would include the sun. We know that there is some interaction there because it gives rise to the Aurora Bolearis. PC studies the sun's cycles and applies these to the effect on long range weather forecasting, sometimes he is right and sometimes not - Joe laminate floori during his tenure with Accuweather studied 'cycles' not the Lance Armstrong type and came to the conclusion that we were due for a period of colder winters over the next 20 years or so. Since he said this, the winters in the UK and Europe appear to have been somewhat colder with more snow incidents, some of which have been very unusual, such as snow in the south of the UK at the end of October, which before the last few years I can never recall happening previously during my lifetime. The traditional models work out to a certain extent but after a few days they can become inaccurate and lead to misleading forecasts. The chaos theory can be blamed for this to a fairly large extent but it does seem to me that they are working on less than full information, so inaccuracies are bound to happen. What it requires, in my view, is a good open study of all these different theories, though PC does play his cards close to his chest but in the interests of the furtherance of scientific knowledge he should make his methods open to the rest of the scientific community for study, otherwise he remains saddled with the reputation of a charlatan selling snake oil as a cure all for everything. With such further research, including the effect of possible solar cycles etc, it is likely that the accuracy of long range weather forecasting could be improved and a better understanding of the mechanisms of how the weather does what it does can be reached. As to whether our climate is changing in the long term, it is difficult to say, just that there are quite wide variations within the natural cycles.

I seem to recollect but I could be wrong after all this time, that the breakdown in '63 came from the NW - up there the temps were warmer and I got the idea that the attack was being made where there was the least resistance.

I had the impression that the forecaster on Country File this evening was hedging his bets towards the weekend and I can't say I blame him. It does seem to me that the breakdown for Friday/Saturday is being brought on with indecent haste and I suspect the old lady won't wear it.