snowray

Looking at your list there, can I ask, has there ever been a 7c December?

4.1c and 82mm please.

Made a little calculation to the 10th and came up with 4.04c, not too far off.

Makes a change to actually win something. Thanks Roger for all your hard work running the competition.

5.3c and 121.5mm please.

Another very slight move there towards the GFS. Could see some blinding runs in the 12z's today.

I'm really sorry for your loss, I can imagine what you went through, lost my mum too after 5 years of this terrible illness.

Depends if the ground freezes if we get some ice days, and quantity of snowfall. The GFS keeps most of the ppn just clipping the coast on the 12z run, but if we saw some heavy snowfall could turn very cold in them slack easterly winds and cold uppers, particularly at night. Maybe a December 1981 re-run, when we saw lots of snow and extreme cold at times but upper air was not even particularly low.

Would expect some very cold temps at this stage, early December sun very weak, no snow melt, hard frosts.

Yes it's usually a blend between the two, with things regularly ending up further east, interesting to note this weeks little channel low feature, ECM had it way too far south, whilst GFS was too far north, UKMO were closest with it eventually just affecting areas roughly south of the M4, so ECM did worse on this occasion. I have a feeling that we could end up with a dry spell dominated by HP for the last week of the month, with any showers just clipping the east coast, although a decent cold spell can't be ruled out just yet.

I think that what was required was a blast of cold from the north, something that wasn't out of the ordinary in the second half of November not so long ago, followed by HP over the country with frosts and fog. I have gone for 7c so this scenario would have suited me. Of course late November 2010 was quite exceptional, I have never seen powder snow or such low temps for the time of the year, I usually looked at mid December for real Winter to start. It would seem that we are paying for it now with these mainly mild and wet Novembers ever since.

Oh ok, how about 10 foot waves then, I wanted to take some pics tomorrow morning.

So we could see 15 foot waves in Bexhill early hours, scarry.

Think everything slightly further north again on the 12z runs.

Maybe we could have a competition for the strongest winds in our region tomorrow? I'll got for 85mph.

7c and 157mm please.

Was hoping for somewhere in the 100-110mm range but most likely will be higher now looking at recent model runs, it was looking rather dry for much of the rest of the month just a couple of days ago with the Scandi high moving further west, it just goes to show how quickly things can change,

I have mentioned before that I have a friend from Romney Marsh who follows all this, particularly the behaviour of birds, geese in particular and even swans. Sometimes they get it right but are usually wrong particularly when it comes to cold weather and snowfall, interesting none the less.

Yes things could turn colder very quickly, I always remember the snowfall in the home counties, including parts of north London a few years back, quite unexpected, most late Octobers have been quite mild over all in recent times.

Sorry Roger, can change to 99mm please. Keep temp the same but I'm thinking possibly early frosts now, cant decide on cold second half or wet, thinking more likely mild and wet though. Thanks

12.7c and 82mm please.

Yes I think it will be close, does not look that cold for the rest of the month so we should not see many more 0.2c drops, more likely some 0.1c days and/or no change maybe.

That's why I went so high in August's competition, thought a late August heatwave was very possible, never expected this in September, came from nowhere really with the models compared to the August forecast warm ups all coming to nothing. If only it had turned up a week earlier.

Could we see a record breaking September to make up for the crappy July and August I wonder? Blinking typical I'm heading away to the Med on the 6th, booked up just before the decent looking charts turned up, and also having taken the advice of a friend from Romney Marsh, a sort of Augur from them parts who insisted that there was no chance of an Indian Summer this year due to the behaviour of swans/birds on the river Sewer. More fool me!

Can I go up to 15.9c please, looking dry too but might turn wet 2nd half so will keep the rainfall as 62mm. Thanks Roger