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snowray

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snowray last won the day on March 7 2018

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    Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences
    Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.

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  1. Thats a very good chart on the face of it, would not take much for some upgrades tomorrow from there.
  2. As I explained earlier, we want to keep that low as far north of Italy as possible, we don't want it sinking as quickly as we have seen on some runs. The Azores high is a pain in the B, but we can live with that for now and hope it can stay out west a bit further.
  3. Oh my word, is the ICON shifting camp? Looking more like one of the minor model solutions there at T114 on its 18z run....
  4. Well I thought I would do a round up of the 12z runs at T144, interesting split we have this evening, the big three and icon..... VERSES....The so called lesser models. ECM, GFS, UKMO, ICON GEM, JMA, NAVGEM, CMA Interesting that the lesser models all seem to still go for an easterly, maybe thats because they are indeed inferior, but it would be interesting if the got this right for a change after the likes of UKMO and ECM apparently failing miserably where they should be pretty well the strongest around the T120-T144 timeframe. As they say, it's not happened yet.
  5. Yes, and when cities like Varese get 20cm, up in them mountains there can be 3 foot of snow or more, they usually sort it out pretty quickly I must say. Central/southern Italy do well with the lake effect off the Adriatic of course totally different from what they call the cold cushion of the Po Valley. I was out there one winter and it had not snowed properly yet, it was mid January, this elderly lady said to me that it's going to snow, I said to her, how do you know that, nothing is forecast, she said "It always snows, sooner or later". Well it started as we went in February, and snowed on and off all month long with very cold temps, I always remembered that, when it snows in NW Italy we often do ok over here as well for some reason, Genoa Lows help of course. I'm really looking forward to the 12z runs to see how much the low heading towards Italy can correct north, they have had a lot of near misses like us over there in the North West of Italy this winter so far, surely they are not going to miss out again? And I sincerely hope that we don't miss out again over here.
  6. We have seen this many times before a cold spell though, models have a wobble, then a day later they are back on track. Or will this winter really go down in history as the winter of near misses, and the cold not turning up until March again? I'm feeling relatively confident of us getting something half decent in the next couple of weeks.
  7. Its a start though, we have to start somewhere in this mainly snowless winter so far of a flake or two here and there.
  8. Not had a chance to post the last couple of days due to bits of business that had to be sorted out, including funnily enough a couple of legal documents that have to be signed in a town in NW Italy at over 400m asl next Thursday. Heavy snow was showing up for this area for Wednesday and Thursday of next week and I was worried that the the solicitor would not be around in his offices if there's 2 or 3 foot of snow or that the elderly signatories would end up stuck in a mountain snow drift, I thought just my luck, hardly any snow south of the Alps and it has to bucket down next week. (Its snowed lots in Central/Southern Italy though of course). But out of the blue hardly any snowfall at all is showing this morning for Northern Italy so I thought I'd take a look at the ensembles. London, no outlier there. Lugano (Italian/Swiss border), the operational is a clear outlier. Florence. North/Central Italy.Massive outlier. So It seems to me that the GFS operational has this Low pressure sinking south way, way too quickly, in view of this I expect everything to be further north again on the 12z runs. I'm not expecting the crazy beast from the east charts for next week, although you never know, but am thinking that UKMO is likely to be on the money, or maybe a UKNO/GFS blend. ECM has the low even further south, so looking well over done to me, should be some big changes coming up on the 12z runs, certainly less progressive in my opinion. Best of the best this morning is the NAVGEM, poor model, but every model can have its day. The up and coming China model also looking great. So hopefully lots to look forward to still for coldies from Tuesday onwards. Anyway, let's wait and see what the 12z runs turn up before jumping to conclusions. I would still prefer that it didn't snow in Northern Italy next week mind, at the end of the day I want it all over here for us to enjoy!
  9. Not often that you see so many snow symbols on the GFS London ensembles.
  10. East Anglia looking like the best place for tomorrow.
  11. The CMA China model seems to be one thats up and coming, like JMA it has been pretty consistent with some great looking runs for next week.
  12. Big difference also is that this is late January not March, what comes out of the sky will not melt in a day or two, it will freeze and with more snow likely on top will make for very dangerous conditions. Sometimes I do wonder what on earth is wrong with us longing for such extreme weather that can cause such misery for many; the elderly, the disabled, motorists, and the economy of course, and even death if things were to really get bad in prolonged freezes.
  13. GFS ensembles for North Midlands, for a change. Operational was a mild outlier quite clearly there. Mean looking very cold indeed around -5/-6c from D4 onwards, lots of snow symbols too.
  14. Famous last words Catacol? Now who does that remind we of out of the weather presenters from the 1980's, I remember now, it was a windy Autumn in 1987, hint, hint.......
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