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Posts posted by Jock Bingham
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58 minutes ago, JimBob said:
The models have further firmed up on the milder trend for next week, large parts of the UK into double digit temperatures by early next week.
I think you could be right for the far South West Jim Bob, but are you calling that as a Uk-wide outcome?
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3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:
Conditions are a lot more favourable atm than expected for this time im feeling confident well hit a few cms after 8am
Spot on with this - it all turned out reet
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3 minutes ago, Derbyshire_snow said:
What height are you at it is snowing in Buxton and I presume it will be snowing in the highest hills around sheffield that go up to 400-500m Asl
Wet sleet at this place which is over 400m:
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33 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
It's how snow forecasts should be mate. Anyone giving a definitive answer isn't considering the uncertainties.
Thoughts on if any amounts at low level will last beyond Friday night or is a thaw nailed on for Saturday?
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26 minutes ago, The PIT said:
light snow here. local forecast now downgraded a bit.
In 10 years of following this forum, I’ve yet to see you post a positive comment. I still can’t fathom if you’re a troll
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Heavy snow in Stannington, north west Sheffield.
-1.8c
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:
Sadly a warm up is not far outside the reliable time frame so it looks like a blink and you've missed severe cold spell. Good model agreement from around T144. So will we a get the first day of lying snow. Not managed this winter yet so this week is the last chance.
Even if it does turn milder, since when was 5 days of cold with at least 3 ice days a “blink and you’ve missed it” event?
Yes, looks like we may only get 1 to 2 feet of snow in Sheffield...just not up to those winters you had in the 70s and 80s. M0dern Wlnter.... ?
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:
Unless you've got a place to store them properly Winters tyres generally aren't worth it. In recent Winters you'd hardly be using them.
Anyway back onto this cold snap local forecast has rain tomorrow and I've just noticed the temperature has zoomed up from 1.6C to 2.2C in the last half hour so they could be right. We shall see. Even if does Snow the amount will be small so will cause little difficulty for those who don't panic at the first flake of Snow. So that's 1% of drivers then. Local forecast has the next two events down as dry days. Mmmmmmm.
Pit, could not disagree with you more re snow types.
I live in Sheffield (top of Stannington, 230m) and before that I lived in Crookes.
This Winter alone, there must have been 5 separate days already where but for winter tyres, I simply couldn’t have got up to our house on main roads. I ventured out on one of those days in my other car which doesn’t have full winter tyres, but does have mud and snow rated tyres and plenty of clearance, and came a cropper on a hill nearbye.
In some of the snowier winters in Crookes, some of the cars were stranded on the steep residential roads for days at a time.
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Remarkably there is still significant amounts of snow in the Peak District, even as close as 3 - 5 miles from Sheffield city centre. Most of this is in the form of deep drifts in ditches and behind banks, where there has been shade. Even with temperatures in the teens, there is a good chance that snow will last in some small patches through till May. This seems to be because of the sheer volume of snow we ha so late in the season.
Does anyone know if snow has ever lasted from one winter through to another in England - however small the patch..?
I know this doesn't always even happen in Scotland - but I wondered in it was possible in England on very rare occasions, such as 1962/3 and in the 1600s and 1700s.
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600 metres? Are you in a hot air balloon?
sleetinh here the light covering we had starting to melt a little now.
*600 feet
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2 cm covering on Crookes, Sheffield @ 600metres. Rain in Hillsborough 1.5 miles away.
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Glass half empty as usual PIT
As per..
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How high are you pretty sure you're higher than me.
10cm here as well fresh last night - Crookes, Sheffield.
I went driving up Ringinglow Road and then to Hathersage around 8am this morning on winter tyres - some roads ploughed, but others have roughly 8 to 10 inch depth with drifts on side above my waist - obviously quite high elevation there though!
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Im shocked at how much here, it looks same has 2010 easily and still coming, never envasaged this!
Steady on, Sheffield's got about 7inches at the mo - in 2010 Sheffield got 17 inches! And it was followed by severe cold. This is not in the same league - still good though.
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I see your from Crooks! How much do you reckon we have, certainly still coming down nicely
That makes three of us from Crookes. On gardens and side road pavements I reckon we've got well over 7inches now
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I agree Iceni. What is an expert mathematician supposed to look like: Clark Kent?
Stereotype would be male, old, socially awkward
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Ta, I do try
It's a very interesting question. In principle, chaos is ever present, and - by definition - it is very difficult to predict. But 'chaos theory' I think is perhaps too loose a term accredited to a phenomenon which - at present - we just don't understand enough about. Indeed, if the weather was truly and absolutely chaotic, ie: that it has no discernible pattern, then it's hard to see how you'd improve a verification score? So, it's chaotic to a degree; the degree being, perhaps, our understanding of the variables at play.
The ceiling is an interesting idea: is there one? Impossible to tell. Some mathematicians would say that there is, whereas other theoretical physicists would disagree and align themselves more towards a constant intellectual evolution; one which continually raises the ceiling, if you will.
In terms of extending the window (growing the 80% and 20%) I think we'll see more atmospherically encompassing forecasts, where long-drain phenomena (such as SSW) extend the range of sight. More powerful supercomputers, satellite ranging and observation density will drive this forward, as it always has. This crosses over into the realms of climatology, so a marriage of sorts is close on the horizon I believe.
My personal view, is that we'll come to see more accuracy/detail within the 5-7 day range; the sort of accuracy which we come to expect from, say, a 48hr forecast. This in itself would be quite an achievement. The narrowing of uncertainty regarding, for instance, mesoscale modelling of depth and path of features (precipitation intensity, pressure track, general behaviour of cyclogenesis)
Hope that helps?
SB
Very interesting post. Your profile pic does not shout "expert on mathmatics and weather", which makes it all the more intriguing..!
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Looks like it
Which symbol on that chart shows that it's stalled? It is the "x"?
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Puts this event into perspective snowfall up to 30cm by Boxing day 1963. That would be a apocalyptic Weather Warning these days "Everybody write your will for tomorrow you will die Death by snow."
Pit, Sheffield had 17inches in 2010!!
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looks pretty good to me?snow today,tom and a larger spell of snow moving up from the south east sunday.
What time do you expect the heavy stuff to hit sheffield? Band seems to have picked up speed - any chance it could stall a bit over sheffield / Yorkshire?
Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I don't understand... are we saying that Scott Ingham day is not happening now?