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Jock Bingham

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Posts posted by Jock Bingham

  1. 3 minutes ago, Derbyshire_snow said:

    What height are you at it is snowing in Buxton and I presume it will be snowing in the highest hills around sheffield that go up to 400-500m Asl

    Wet sleet at this place which is over 400m: 

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  2. 1 hour ago, The PIT said:

    Sadly a warm up is not far outside the reliable time frame so it looks like a blink and you've missed severe cold spell. Good model agreement from around T144. So will we a get the first day of lying snow. Not managed this winter yet so this week is the last chance.

    Even if it does turn milder, since when was 5 days of cold with at least 3 ice days a “blink and you’ve missed it” event?

    Yes, looks like we may only get 1 to 2 feet of snow in Sheffield...just not up to those winters you had in the 70s and 80s. M0dern Wlnter.... ?

    • Like 1
  3. 1 hour ago, The PIT said:

    Unless you've got a place to store them properly Winters tyres generally aren't worth it. In recent Winters you'd hardly be using them. 

    Anyway back onto this cold snap local forecast has rain tomorrow and I've just noticed the temperature has zoomed up from 1.6C to 2.2C in the last half hour so they could be right. We shall see. Even if does Snow the amount will be small so will cause little difficulty for those who don't panic at the first flake of Snow. So that's 1% of drivers then. :)  Local forecast has the next two events down as dry days. Mmmmmmm.

    Pit, could not disagree with you more re snow types.

    I live in Sheffield (top of Stannington, 230m) and before that I lived in Crookes.

    This Winter alone, there must have been 5 separate days already where but for winter tyres, I simply couldn’t have got up to our house on main roads. I ventured out on one of those days in my other car which doesn’t have full winter tyres, but does have mud and snow rated tyres and plenty of clearance, and came a cropper on a hill nearbye.

    In some of the snowier winters in Crookes, some of the cars were stranded on the steep residential roads for days at a time.

     

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    • Like 2
  4. Remarkably there is still significant amounts of snow in the Peak District, even as close as 3 - 5 miles from Sheffield city centre. Most of this is in the form of deep drifts in ditches and behind banks, where there has been shade. Even with temperatures in the teens, there is a good chance that snow will last in some small patches through till May. This seems to be because of the sheer volume of snow we ha so late in the season.

    Does anyone know if snow has ever lasted from one winter through to another in England - however small the patch..?

    I know this doesn't always even happen in Scotland - but I wondered in it was possible in England on very rare occasions, such as 1962/3 and in the 1600s and 1700s.

  5. Ta, I do try blum.gif

    It's a very interesting question. In principle, chaos is ever present, and - by definition - it is very difficult to predict. But 'chaos theory' I think is perhaps too loose a term accredited to a phenomenon which - at present - we just don't understand enough about. Indeed, if the weather was truly and absolutely chaotic, ie: that it has no discernible pattern, then it's hard to see how you'd improve a verification score? So, it's chaotic to a degree; the degree being, perhaps, our understanding of the variables at play.

    The ceiling is an interesting idea: is there one? Impossible to tell. Some mathematicians would say that there is, whereas other theoretical physicists would disagree and align themselves more towards a constant intellectual evolution; one which continually raises the ceiling, if you will.

    In terms of extending the window (growing the 80% and 20%) I think we'll see more atmospherically encompassing forecasts, where long-drain phenomena (such as SSW) extend the range of sight. More powerful supercomputers, satellite ranging and observation density will drive this forward, as it always has. This crosses over into the realms of climatology, so a marriage of sorts is close on the horizon I believe.

    My personal view, is that we'll come to see more accuracy/detail within the 5-7 day range; the sort of accuracy which we come to expect from, say, a 48hr forecast. This in itself would be quite an achievement. The narrowing of uncertainty regarding, for instance, mesoscale modelling of depth and path of features (precipitation intensity, pressure track, general behaviour of cyclogenesis)

    Hope that helps?

    SB

    Very interesting post. Your profile pic does not shout "expert on mathmatics and weather", which makes it all the more intriguing..!

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