eastangliawx

Run to run variation massively decreasing now, low-res models becoming less and less relevant. We getting down to Nowcast level now. I suspect gfs is a bit to high still for Tuesday and I suspect it will come down to a max of 40c over the next few runs. Monday on gfs becoming more realistic now. 39c seems to be the sweet spot Monday. Met office going with 39c Monday and 40c Tuesday this seems right to me looking at latest models For goals: Tommorow: should be going for hottest day of year so far (32.7c to beat seems do able) Monday: Beating the 38.7c set in 2019, I dont expect us to get 40 but I think at less than 48h, we should have enough to get us past the line (provided there's no last minute cloud or something) Tuesday: Breaking 40c, most models going for this except the usual models that underestimate temps. Will be the hardest but is definitely doable.

Big West shift so far from the 12zs Arpege, ukv, icon I think the heat clearing by midday Tuesday idea is quickly coming off the table imo. Monday may be 1c lower as a result of the heat being further SW

Gfs ensembles look to have trended west aswell comparing the two means.

The past 3 gfs runs have actually shifted the heat westward Tuesday! Infact the 18z gfs has the cold front furthest west of all the gfs runs today, so no clear sign of an east shift on this model

Ukmo 12z (40c max) - looks like most models quite similar tonight in terms of the cold front Tuesday, icon probably most progressive, but the range of possibilities has shrunk

Icon still ends up with a 40c in there on Tuesday, but the cut off low is more north east than the other models this run while it was the other way round previously. In my opinion, I think we will end up with a middle ground with the cold front moving across the country Tuesday late afternoon not reaching eastern areas till the late evening . Probably similar to what ukmo shows Most importantly aswell i haven't seen any model show the heat leaving the east before midday yet

Mogreps good agreement this morning 0z. Infact maybe a little slower with the clearance of the hot uppers note more members drop past the 20th July line compared to the 18z

So I went through all the gfs members and 78% break 39c 53% break 40c

Wetterzentrale view of ecm ensembles: Only 4 drop 850s during Tuesday day by my count

I think he accidentally posted yesterday's 18z

It is, all i see is people moaning about a dry cold front, gfs has temps 23c+ most days after Monday, would equate to mid twenties in reality. No rain from most until end of next week earliest

Damn people really complaining about a high pressure dominated pattern that looks to last to the end of next week with, relatively clear skies for most, dry and temps in mid-twenties.

<0c Freezing 0-5c Cold 6-10c Chilly 11-15c Mild 16-20c V mild 21-25c Warm 26-30c V warm 30c+ Hot IMO

More ensembles now flipping to keep warmth going into next weekend for SE. Interesting trend

Big differences between 0z and 6z gfs at just 102h with that low. 6z has it much weaker, i dont think this breakdown is sorted just yet 0z vs 6z

Gfs 18z is an improvement on the 12z Looks like high pressure may build again straight after any breakdown 12z vs 18z (144h) -

They are out. Looks like most of the latest models now wanting to keep the warmth going till Friday atleast. Gfs still the quickest on a breakdown with it coming on Friday, but extended further than was previously suggesting and I would guess this will continue as it still has the low unusually deep compared to the others. Many positives this morning. Heres ECM, GFS, GEM and ICON at 168h (next friday) so that we can see the differences on the low.

But biggest upgrade of the day goes to the GEM!

Its an improvement atleast and still away off 12z v 6z

Wow! Complete turn around from the ECM!

Navgem 12z vs 0z (yesterday)180h - Can't get much better of an improvement between runs than that lol. Cool and wet yesterday morning to hot this afternoon

Icon upgrades this evening, stronger heights in the more reliable 120h timeframe 12z v 18z

UKMO! Most likely the best scenario going forward over the weekend, not the favoured within the models but...

Latest GFS mean (6z) has a stronger ridge over us at the weekend and heading into early next week compared to 0z (You can see it pretty clearly on wetterzentrale, so you can't complain Frosty ) 6z v 0z

Overall outlook remains the same. A rise in heights Wednesday/Thursday leading to an improvement in our weather over the weekend with higher temps than we have currently, less rain and more sun. What happens after that is anyones guess at the moment