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Steve Edgefield

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  1. Steve Edgefield

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    Would be very interesting to hear GP's further thoughts this morning given the overnight runs which appear to be coming together towards a more mobile and westerly dominated spell next week. The EC signal from yesterday has disappeared. Others have mentioned that Nina conditions are interfering and sometimes over-riding other teleconnevtive signals. I'm wondering whether we are continuing to see this played out and hence the current output.
  2. Yes, I am the same. I live on the North Norfolk coast and it's amazing how high dew points can scupper any snow here. Was horrible to see all the reports of snow yesterday, even in London, but up here in Norfolk not one snow flake did I see. Mind you, virtually all of Norfolk was the same. I'm convinced I have a snow shield around me. The snow obsession is like an addiction once it takes hold!
  3. What a dreadful winter. I wish it would end. No sign of anything cold and white looks likely now. Even when the Synoptics do look more favourable there is no deep cold to tap into. From my untrained eye, whatever is going on in the stratosphere is doing nothing for us except shift that vortex over to the States side (again) delivering massive cold to them in the medium term. No deep cold showing anywhere near north or east Europe or even Russia for that matter. I've definitely reached model fatigue. I thought some of those winters in the late 90s were bad but this has been the worst and punishing and traumatic for those that have had to suffer floods. Roll on Spring and a stronger sun to start drying things out.
  4. Nothing inspiring for those of us in the south in the immediate outlook.. It's either cool, very mild and windy, very mild and wet followed by cool/cold and wet interspersed with drier interludes. It has definitely felt like a north/south winter divide at times with Scotland taking the lions share of cold (that which has been on offer) and poor old Northern England having dire amounts of rain. Yes we had that cold snap in January which was nice but I've not seen one flake of snow in a few years now. The next ten days look good for snow prospects north but same old story down here. Very depressing winter again. Nothing to suggest that north/south divide changing anytime soon.
  5. 11C here in Southampton and grey again. I've seen lower temps in June! Ridiculously mild for the week ahead too at times. Remarkable really but the lack of sunshine is dismal. Nov/Dec going to be record breaking surely for the extended warmth, one I hope won't be repeated for a fair few years. Sadly, though I think that more and more unlikely. I am missing the cold.
  6. What's awful about this weather is that it just produces days of grey, laden skies and damp drizzly conditions. What happened to the high pressures that delivered a few sunny, crisp and frosty days in between the rain and wind. It comes to something when you're struggling to find one of those in the models let alone any sign of deep cold. This warmth has been remarkable down South. December looks like it's on course to be one of the warmest. I went to Jersey end of November and daffodils were already out there. It just ain't right. I know it's early into winter but with all this latent warmth it's hard to see how there can be such a dramatic switch to cold.
  7. Steve Edgefield

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    A few frosts and crisps days would be welcome and that in itself would make it more of a winter than last year. We're heading towards the end of Autumn and there's probably been at most two frosts that I can recall and I'm not sure they were proper air frosts. This mornings ECM offers yet another potential warm southerly towards end of next week if the block holds. Yes, hemispheric patterns are vastly different to last year but nevertheless we remain remarkably warm this side of the pond. Would be nice to see a switch but confidence for me is low at this juncture.
  8. Steve Edgefield

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    I just want one relatively normal month of weather. I don't want April/May warmth at the beginning of March. Yes some sun and dry would be welcome but some normal temps and frosty nights would feel more seasonal. This has been a truly awful few months and I'd like a bit of normality to prevail.
  9. Steve Edgefield

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    Couldn't agree more. So frustrating but always on the cards with the jet powering up? The 240 chart from last night's 12h also suggested this. I guess we've seen this week that FI is at a short timescale but we seem to be stuck in a rut of nomansland at present.
  10. Steve Edgefield

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    Seems as if it's a case of two steps forward and two steps back and so on and so on with us left in a bit of a stalemate position. Not sure whether the block to the east is a help or a hindrance. Lows stalling over the UK for the next few days as they run into the block so it looks like more of the same although perhaps a bit cooler. Jet then looks to power up towards the end of next week as a massive cold plunge takes hold of the US again. Both GFS/ECM have this powering through us at 240 with the resurgence of potential stormy weather. Looks to me as if it would be difficult for that block to be sustained with such an attack. Finding it hard to see any major pattern shift in the models at present although we have seen some flirtation. GEM looks out of kilter this morning.
  11. Steve Edgefield

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    || I am glad you responded to this Steve as I was about to post something on your behalf! I really appreciated your original post - it's good to get a reality check into this thread. Whist I do appreciate this is a stratosphere temperature watch thread, I think it's most useful when this is discussed within the context of the many other variables which can affect our weather and all the associated complexities and uncertainties surrounding how these all interact. You also explain things in a way which is understanable to those of us with less technical knowledge so please keep posting!!