Ian Docwra
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Everything posted by Ian Docwra
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I really do wonder what the models are aware of - at the start of this spell they seemed to be unaware of saturated, warm ground over most of the UK, and North Sea SSTs being much higher than normal. Models, of course, are immensely complex, but these two factors are pretty basic for predicting snow formation and accumulation.
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Much less high cloud today is allowing stronger sunshine.
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A freezing day today (max. -0.3C) owing to a fair bit of cloud to the south dimming the sun here. Beautiful day after a film of snow came down last night. The ground is rock hard now (too late!). A local path by a busy road has this on the railings where a broken drain pours water down the road.
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A very thin film here, as predicted, from flurries last evening, when the slightly heavier snow went just to the south of us. Snow in shaded areas only now, but the ground is hard. Mild to come but then possibly snowy again, but I have my doubts about the return of the very cold weather. Another week on also adds to the insolation values.
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A '10 degree change"?
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Light snow here, with almost no wind. -2.3C before the snow, now -1.8C. The hard frost is meaning, unlike the first batch, every flake is settling, but, unless the flow in from the east keeps enough moisture, it may only give a film on the ground by morning. Only light echoes upwind and pressure rising don't make for anything significant.
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Heavy showers have updrafts which can pull air in from all directions, so falling snow can be pulled around in all directions.
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OK. The direction things come from is 'xxxxerly', where they're going is 'xxxxwards'.
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Easterly, surely?
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Yes, well done for making it happen...!
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A few are, but they're decaying rapidly as they do so.
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BBC being very cautious about tonight's likely UK low, compared with latest MO report from the site of -15C at 1900. With at least twelve hours of clear sky to come, why on earth would they assume a minimum of -9C? A Scottish site, but an issue which applies everywhere - i.e. taking account of actual conditions in forecasts.
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Interesting effect this afternoon after a flurry left a thin covering of snow on our frozen pond. The willow's shadow had preserved a tree shape on the ice while the sun melted the rest.
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Interesting to know how being a storm chaser squares with not being a radar reader?
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The BBC is showing -10C very widely across Surrey, but I think they are assuming snow cover.
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UHI effect is forcing air to rise over London, creating tall enough clouds to create ppn.
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Very nice - it almost looks sewn on!
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Ah, but encouraging for what? They're saying very mild and wet from Sunday onwards which, judging by your moniker, may not be your preference.
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There still seems to be a major disparity between the models' outcomes.
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A real gem of an example of the UHI effect here. The three showers now to the SW of London all developed as they hit London from virtually nothing.
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A 'whiteout' is when it's impossible to distinguish ground from sky, and a 'blizzard' is when heavy falling and/or lying snow is blown around severely by sustained strong winds, giving prolonged horizontal snow and major drifting. What's happened today has been moderate to heavy snow showers. Still wouldn't drive through them, though.
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No, no, no - ITV weather has just confirmed double figures temps. from Monday onwards for a week plus.
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Actually some UHI effect seems to be sustaining/bolstering the ones coming across Central London.
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Their power supply is about to set, though.
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Indeed, the hottest place in the UK!
