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Ian Docwra

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Posts posted by Ian Docwra

  1. 42 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Are our summers really getting hotter though? I beg to differ. A run of a few warmer than average years doesn’t mean they are getting hotter.

    2003 when we saw 38c, people thought that would be the new normal, only to then not see it bettered for nearly 20 years. If anything our August’s have become cooler according to my local bookkeeping over the many years. 1976 has not been repeated since either. Summers of 2018 or 2006 are the only ones to have come close. July in particular. 

    As for cold. December 2010, March 2013 and the 2018 BFTE has proven we can still achieve severe cold. It’s only a matter of time until we see a repeat of 62-63 or 1947. Maybe not this decade, but in the next 50 years we could see a year comparable to it. Climate has not changed as much as we are being told by the mainstream media. 

    I think over the SE as a whole they are getting hotter in general, obviously with some blips.  It's now not noteworthy to have temperatures above 30c, whereas it previously was.  The absolute maximum reached is less important by far than averages, and on that measure our summers have become warmer steadily, along with Europe.  We can still have cold, yes, but it's not unusual to see a whole winter go by without lying snow now.  SSTs are rising slowly but surely and don't really respond to occasional cold spells. 

    I don't take my climate information from the mainstream media.  I imagine occasional very cold spells will still occur - they will just become rarer.

    • Like 4
  2. 37 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    While I can't complain as I've been fairly lucky this past week snow wise. But just touching on what you were saying, this winter overall does feel like a complete waste in the grand scheme of things.

    We've had no raging PV all winter long basically, yet we've just struggled to get deep cold to our shores all winter bar the past week. Even during the coldish spells over Christmas/New year when the north did see snow, it was never actually that cold.

    So many years we'd be absolutely delighted with no raging PV and a SSW to boot, but the puzzle pieces have never quite fallen into place. It's a shame really as this winter really did have all the ingredients to be very special!


    We had a number of occasions earlier this winter where the NE wind brought rain at 2/3C, so with a normal SST we could have seen very different results.  With our summers getting hotter (and winters milder, come to that), the SSTs can only rise slowly but surely.  This makes marginal situations veer towards rain and the arrival of freezing air less common.  

  3. 7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Splash icicles probably, would have been puddles as the snow melted, 

    More likely a burst pipe or broken drain - the amount of ice there couldn't have come simply from melted snow with a large puddle still remaining.  We have a similar thing close to me on a road that leads up to the downs - the drains can't cope with winter groundwater and the road is a river to varying degrees most of the time.



  4. 13 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

    Always the way of things in storm season! I mean I only moved to these parts a year ago. Lived in chilterns my whole life, and seen many a thunderstorm drift past the house to only have to go in the car and chase. Although last summer was incredible, sure, the midlanders and northerners seem to get the best homegrown storms now and have done for years, but there was one day last mid august which was unbelievable for lightning and rain and I got it all recorded! 

    I wouldn't rule out some light snow today but of course anything now will be short-lived on the ground with impending warmer air.  The risk of glaze is there, though, with the ground now frozen (at last).

    • Like 1
  5. 1 hour ago, slaphead said:

    This does sound wrong .... I walked between Kingston and Kew regularly along the Thames in winters 09/10 and Dec 10 and can confirm huge areas were frozen over  with great ice sheets floating downstream. My friends in Shepperton further upstream talked about breaking the ice to go kayaking near the weir.

    I heard that the Thames was frozen in patches at Teddington this morning.

    • Like 4
  6. 1 hour ago, North Downs Snowboarder said:

    V interesting question, I'd put my money on the Scilly Isles, I believe there's a weather station on the main island that's rarely recorded a sub zero temperature.



    Climate information for Scilly (England) - weather averages, seasons. With some advice on the best time to visit.


    I'd go for Gibraltar 😉.

  7. 12 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    This is fascinating there does appear to be a correlation in our region with colder winters and near solar minimum conditions, and milder and wetter winters concentrating near solar maximum.


    The question then is; does the solar cycle have an influence on the occurence of Sudden Stratospheric Warming?  The latter is what has caused this cold spell.

  8. 8 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Air getting colder, the very low dew points and snow appearing in many eastern parts moving in from the coast. The area in suffolk was a surprise. Also a little precipitation making its way westwards from colchester. Is there going to be a last minute surprise.?

    I think it's a little more E than SE than expected hence a little moisture collection on the longer sea track.  Nothing major at these pressures (1030mb).

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