Hatewarmth

Is it me or is the precipitation dying out from the south west. Looking at radar looks to me like there will be nothing falling from around 2pm at best but can only imagine it will build up again as we go through the day

As always the Pennines stopping and snow from hitting our area with any sort of intensity

What do the think the chances are of the rain forecast at the weekend could be snow. Model look to be extending the cold a tad but not sure

I’ve been saying look NE fir a week now. This is where the holy grail will come from. Think we looking around end on month. Hopefully with a SSW to help things along

Is it just me or does anyone feel the cold air will put up more of a fight than us currently been shown. We all know when cold air had been established fir a while it can take some shifting. My thinking is yes it will warm up briefly before the next cold shot from the NE but I think it will be cold throughout the whole of next weekend possibly with some snow

Totally agree. As many keep saying that system will almost certainly track more and more south in the next few days. Snow will crop up anywhere at anytime in this setup. Won’t be picked up by the model till 1 or 2 days before. Expect surprises

No it was me. I’ve been telling g everyone to look NE

How come when it comes to cold we must wait for the reliable (120) but when mild is showing at plus 8 days it’s nailed on. The models do not have a clue and are changing SIGNIFICANTLY at 3 days out so how on earth when it shows mild we are certain. It may well turn milder through the weekend but there is so much to get through before then. I think what it is with all these mild tampers is that they want it that bad they are scared of getting hurt when it does not come so they play reverse psychology with themself to protect themselves

Totally agree. I think the track of the low won’t get sorted till Monday at the earliest. Would be shocked if it didn’t track a 100 miles further south but we will see. Good news is cold locked in fir longer and could we start to look to the NE

Yes it is. BUT can the cold air hold snd push back south to maintain the cover of the 6 inches we would get. Not so sure

This is good for the Yorkshire folk in here as it would give them a better chance of seeing snow mid week but we really need the model to go to Scandi to reinforce the cold. There are hints of this appearing so maybe

I stated the exact same half hour ago in the mod thread. Sadly for us I feel your right wrt mid weeks snow. I personally think the UKMO is best in winter especially when predicting cold spells. Also it only goes to 7 days for a reason. Basically because there is zero point in looking further. As stated in the mod thread my feeling from what limited knowledge I have of reading charts is that I can’t help but think we must look NE. Yes it may be dryer in the short term but the longer this cold PATTERN is locked in for the better chance we have (especially in our area) of hitting the holy grail. Memory tell me that our area MUST have a NE wind for significant and LONG LASTING snow as with frontal snow it’s gone in 24 hours. Having said all that next week does look convective so we may get one or two nice surprises as the week progresses. Just a note but nearly all our heavy snow falls come from when steamer (not forecast) come in from an active north see. Anyway just my thoughts so please feel free to disagree

Here are my thoughts this evening while we are waiting fir the ECM. Lows as a rule tend to track further south as we get nearer to T+0. The GFS is well known for the this and as the UZMO shows it may well even go into France and miss us totally. This is what I expect to happen as I always back the UKMO in winter. The good news is that it will ultimately look in the cold for longer as it keeps the jet well south but the bad news is that significant snow will be harder to come by. I said this yesterday I think but longer term I do feel that we need to look NE. The models have been hinting at this for the last few days and I think we will see this more and more in the essembles. If wingspread snow is what you’re after I personally think we got to wait a couple of weeks but hopefully the rewards we be greater rather than looking for frontal snow. This way it could develop into something more memorable

Can you send the link plesse

Yes all the models are now saying this. I think the models will end up halfway house as usual but starting to look likely a snow event somewhere on Wednesday as the low in the SW move into play. My guess would be an area between Birmingham and Leeds to be worse hit as it stands but true is we won’t know till T+0