SP1986

1.5C now and frosty but high cloud approaching so won't be cold for long

2.3C now..dew on cars has frozen

Currently 3.4C with do of 1C

Me too.. need some photographs of foggy days

temperature here is +2.4 with a dewpoint of +1.3

There is a small chance red warnings may be released tomorrow rush hour.. I presume some of the strongest winds will occur in southeasterly regions by that time. Falling trees will likely be an issue so I'd consider that a danger to life, owing to how many people are caught out in cars from falling trees, out walking etc in these severe storms.

dewpoint is doing well, but I suspect it will rise when the cloud rolls in. Interestingly the stormy conditions down south maybe be causing a little concern.

Ive been watching this with interest and concern (up here in the northwest).. it always puts the wind up me (excuse the pun) when I see situations like this one, especially in light of 1987. It's very easy to dismiss 1987 out of hand as a comparison, but we really wont know the effect it has until it hits. I would treat this one with extreme respect.. I have a feeling some people will get caught out by this. Hopefully it will pass through as an interesting system, rather than a dangerous one.

The southeast could be in trouble tonight... it's got slight eerie connection to 1987 albeit unlikely to be that severe. could be some damage even so... not much notice being taken really

Indeed quite an impressive November so far in comparison to last few. If anyone is going to see some tomorrow it'll be Manchester area.. perhaps Wilmslow.. that kind of area.

Well surface temperatures at precipitation arrival time may be around 0-2 degrees. Dewpoints will be the same.. but where the temperatures hover around 0C there will be ice pellets.Cold rain more than likely but it really is on a knife edge... nothing can be dismissed at this stage. it's not so much a warm inversion aloft as much as there a shallow temperature gradient, this not allowing the depth for good snow production in the atmosphere... that said.. who knows .. we've seen snow in similar situations before and been taken surprise by it.

There is a small chance tomorrow if the precipitation moves further north than progged, we could get snow via evaporative cooling in the south of the region. as it stands dewpoints are just the wrong side of 0C but that could change if the ppn band moves further north than expected. As it stands ice pellets could be a feature for southern areas but only skimming the south of the region

Lots of cells building in the Irish sea

What's it like to your west Chris?

It's now producing a rain curtain... this surely will be a classic thunderstorm. Looks good for Crosby actually Chris.

I can see a rapidly expanding cell complete with a shelf cloud and rapidly falling snowline... anyone around Blackpool , or perhaps even Southport may see this one.. it really has exploded with in the last 15 minutes. It doesn't yet have a fully formed anvil, but it will do by the time in hits shallower waters.

Indeed, at -10C 850s there is no question of marginality... that said... I have seen rain fall at such indicators before.. probably quite a rare thing though to have rain falling in those conditions. I take it the shower stream is north of you now Chris? I can see the cells gathering from the west, piling into what I assume is Blackpool/Fleetwood. It's just shy of 8 degrees here at the moment.

Actually Im not convinced it would have been any better in January than it is now. It's understandable from a logical point of view to assume that later in the season the elements would more conducive to snowfall.. but I suspect any improvement would be minimal. The snow area may increase to include areas such as St Helens and Warrington and perhaps more eastern parts of Merseyside, but not by much, and probably not settling. In a westerly were still getting alot of moderation in this setup even in late Winter. Therefore I think the difference between now and January would be fairly small... it may be different in a Northerly/easterly though.

Perhaps it's to do with the depth of cold at origin source,, for example the atmosphere is cold to some depth higher up, as I recall that wasn't the case the past few years. At 500hPa temperatures must be close to -40C, it probably has some bearing on the type of precipitation. Just as a side thought... -40 degrees at 500hPa are usually good conditions for Polar Lows. (I'm not suggesting such a thing though, wrong type of setup)

Very dark cloud approaching with hail and strong winds. I slept through the thunder

Pulses of heavy rain now cleared.. cold wind behind but not enough for snow.. very windy now so no frost or ice chance tonight

Getting dark to west.. about 60 miles away now

I have also but for a system this is very deep and elevated. suggests potential embedded convection

Wow there's an extremely deeply elevated weather system coming in from the west.. I can see the system from here yet it's still in the Irish sea west of Wales. it looks very very large and sudden. maybe there will be some thunderstorms. it looks eerie

I think frost is out of the question for coastal areas for the next 7 to 12 days or so... I never realised how difficult it can be to achieve frost on a west facing hill near the sea.. however for here the projection for the lowest air temperature is circa +3C which seems fairly realistic for the set up. However hopefully we will have some exciting convection too.