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SP1986

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Everything posted by SP1986

  1. Fascinating.. that means 2022 recorded a lower temperature in Liverpool airport than 1947, as it recorded -7C (19F) in December.
  2. Usually when GFS is onto something both the operational and control ensembles show a close similarity, they did so in the December cold spell and at quite an early point too. This time the control run and the other ensembles have consistent diverged from the operational run. It probably is as you say something to do with the USA cold spell, which as a fast moving system, and probably tricking the GFS operational into making an extreme cold scenario across central and western Europe..
  3. I was starting to think something interesting was going to happen maybe into February, then the 18z came out and re-iterated why we can't take it seriously, and why the other models are not jumping onto this cold spell bandwagon. For a start the GFS operational is consistently out on its own with maybe has support from a few ensembles, but generally no cross model support. The next thing was, the evolution of the GFS 18z is a little far fetched in reality, is cold air really going to intensify on the west coasts of Europe in comparison to its source in Russia?.. well it's highly unlikely given there's currently no source of genuinely cold air in central and western Europe. So whilst the 18z looks like a pretty picture for cold, it's likely just another isolated "nutjob" run from the GFS. I would definitely consider sticking with the UKMO, ICON and ECM which altogether look more realistic, even if they don't bring what we'd want to see in February.
  4. Interesting, the southern half of the country is having a colder winter than I experienced in 2010. Its all about relativity of course. There are stations down south than have had -7C or lower for the last 4 days... even in 2010 I never saw 4 nights below -7C. This morning chilly but not frosty, minimum was 1.2C currently 3.6C
  5. Currently 2.1C, likely a front tonight, maybe down to 0C tonight. Gradually warming up past the weekend but only to average for the time of year.
  6. Most of the snow has rapidly melted now, so my guess is any showers will be of rain/sleet or hail today due to higher dew points.
  7. the last shower was more sleety, definitely seemingly more marginal now, though surprisingly what's on the ground isn't melting as fast as I thought it would..
  8. Yes the clouds are literally melting away before my eyes.. really weird to see.
  9. Cute little dusting? that's considered an incredible drift around these parts lol.
  10. thanks mate, no I took covid test, but nothing.. seems like it was just a infection that festered.. maybe Bronchitis.. Im on antibiotics now and it's sorting it out. ps heavy snow here, and starting to settle!
  11. Yes. me and my sister were amazed by it, pink lightning, and heavy snow. It may have been a Polar Low in all honesty but I just didn't know enough about the weather back then, I was 10 at the time.
  12. yep, I remember 1996, a big band of convective precipitation came from the northwest, it had actually organised into a trough, but was also a streamer, it started as heavy graupel, with quite a lot of thunder and lightning, and it went on all night, by morning there was almost a foot of proper snow, it never relented through the night.. never seen anything like it since. It does looks like there will be a bit of snow around these parts tonight, with maybe a decent covering for parts of Wirral and Liverpool. I'm unfortunately recovering from pneumonia, so won't be able to go out and enjoy it, but ill watch it from the window.
  13. ach ne! I can feel it ayn ma skeen! UV 2 with cold days every winter would be fine with me!
  14. As a gardener I'm always interested in the weather's affect on plants. For those who had -8C or lower, how did it affect your garden this time around? It would be interesting to know!
  15. The suns UV was 2 today which is all but unheard of in December. Quite incredible, and more like something you'd experience in early March. I don't think freezing rain will be necessarily an issue here, due to the fact the snow and ice is melting at a very quick rate, that melt water will be warming the ground to an extent, compared to what it has been.
  16. near the top of Heswall looking over rhe river today. Last vestiges of snow hanging on. Currently 4C at the top but 3C at the river
  17. Sounds amazing.. nothing like that here but I'd love to see that!
  18. Looking at wunderground (if you can trust it), it's clear at least in Wirral, the temperatures are down to how high above sea level you are, or general topography. In West Kirby for example, the coldest areas are by the river.. where it's lower altitude. Similarly around Bebington.. higher Bebington has higher temperatures than surrounding lower areas. Obviously, and reassuringly (for the accuracy of my readings), Heswall has higher temperatures than surrounding areas, being on a hill. Parkgate in Cheshire is constantly colder due to this effect. I've been there in these types of situations and can verify Parkgate, despite being on the riverside is often much colder than anywhere else.
  19. Leeds does seem to have it's own little microclimate, I've noticed that in the past.
  20. I may as well add my locations paltry offering of -4.6C which was achieved on the 13th. I suppose in any other circumstance, -4.6C would be a very respectable temperature in winter. Last night was -3.5 (actually this morning), but we cant seem to get much lower, being on the top of a hill. We do however, have frozen snow.
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