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SP1986

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Everything posted by SP1986

  1. I saw the CET is currently 5.7C which makes it colder than April 1989 (not rolling average)... but with temperatures in the day forecast 2-3C below average, even in the next week at least, and night time temperatures easily 4-5C below average, we could well see this years April CET competing with that of 1989. It does make me wonder, April 1701 must have been literally like January with a CET of 4.7C. Looking at the records, we're not going to be all that far away from the record coolest in sets like minimum mean, maximum mean, etc etc.
  2. Sunny day again.. But drying out very fast. These are usable days for outdoor walks. You can go for a walk without sweating... All in all pleasant and somewhat reminiscent of a February morning.
  3. Impressive to see snow lying so easily in April. Looking at the models as well there are hints it may not be the last snow event of this "Spring" and there maybe further potential reloads of wintry weather for the foreseeable future. There is a trend recently to reintroduce a northerly theme on some models around 168 hours. With frequently frosty nights coming up and consistently below average temperatures by day, spring is on hold for now and may well be for the foreseeable future?
  4. This will likely be the coldest April for more than 20 years.
  5. It can be forgiven as it's April, but if that happened in December or January I'd be a bit peeved
  6. Definitely rain, its surprising but I saw similar metar readings earlier on in the day at Capel Curig in Wales. I guess at -1C or so the dew point was quite marginal with air temperature at 5C. As for last night, some huge variation in temperature across the region. The low this morning here was 2.6C
  7. Just had a heavy rain shower go through before... It feels a bit milder now probably due to the higher dew points?
  8. A sunny day today after showers diverted left and right of us. As a result temperatures have hit 8C today. Showers getting a little closer now. Currently 6.5C
  9. The bizarre s scenario where the air is so dry it can snow well above 0C. I would not be surprised to see snow at 5-6C today
  10. No showers here yet but I would point out that there was a snow shower last night.. It was only light but it started as rain as it was 5C at the time, but it didn't take long to turn to snow. Minimum was 3.5C last night.. Currently 4C with sunshine and a few clouds around
  11. Sunny day... 6C currently.. Almost hit 7C before. Pleasant out of the breeze.
  12. There is an outside chance Greenland high could break the pressure record today. Not sure whether it would be officially accepted though as the topography of the Greenland plateau skews the readings somewhat.
  13. Light rain showers this morning.. Cold air either not dug in properly yet or the sea is modifying things again
  14. A very strange situation in Wirral I think.. We're likely to get some snow showers over the next few days but unlikely to go below 0C
  15. It looks like we will get some historically significant cold around Easter if the runs verify. The thing is although it is assumed it'll be short lived, it might not be quite as short lived as we think with some runs seeking to extend or 're-load' the cold. The other thing is this is going to be most noticeable at night when the temperatures plummet well below 0C inland particularly during nocturnal snow cover. Due to the the time of year though it's unlikely we will see temperature that far below 10C in the day if the sun shines although when the showers come along it could drop 5-8C quickly . We are definitely all at risk of snow though should this cold spell verify. Re: nature being damaged... The cold will set it back maybe but it won't be that impactful.. we do live in a cold area of the world and native nature has adapted to deal with that. What it will hit is horticulture and agriculture where we are dealing with none native plants from warmer climates, and crops from warmer climates. But yes this Easter will likely stand out in the historical record.
  16. This is the strongest wind I've heard in a long time. It's blowing up against the window at about 65-70mph.. I live on a top floor so the roaring noise and the vibrations in the building make you feel apprehensive.
  17. True. Well I suppose we should enjoy the next few days it might be the most interesting weather we have for a few weeks
  18. Just to contradict my above post a bit have you seen the similarities between now and the 6z forecast v March 2003. Similar patterns leading the GFS to thrash out a similar scenario to 2003. Obviously the models are struggling with the exact placement of the pattern but interesting to analyse if nothing else
  19. Looking at the models we certainly haven't left winter behind, although the GFS and ECM operationals are almost certainly exagerrating the easterly later on, it does look like some kind of winter could extend into April this year. Also I am of the opinion the summer is likely to be quite poor for warmth and settled weather as the jet meanders it's way northwards (over us) during the course of the summer (the long term seasonal models tend to agree) But in terms of historical analogues for next winter that means...
  20. Stopped now. Just a sugar dusting but was starting to feature rain a bit
  21. It's snowing here but bizarrely it's not settling it's melting on impact with the ground which is quite weird
  22. First ice day here for over a decade coming up I suspect. -2C currently. Bright with hazy sunshine every so often. Next week it may reach 13-15C!
  23. Cold night last night!! -3.7C minimum in the end. Not as cold as expected but will be colder on Friday night.
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