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SP1986

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SP1986 last won the day on April 21 2016

SP1986 had the most liked content!

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    Heswall, Wirral
  • Interests
    Meteorology, Art, Music, Geographical things, Walking, Travelling.
  • Weather Preferences
    Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.

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  1. Fascinating.. that means 2022 recorded a lower temperature in Liverpool airport than 1947, as it recorded -7C (19F) in December.
  2. Usually when GFS is onto something both the operational and control ensembles show a close similarity, they did so in the December cold spell and at quite an early point too. This time the control run and the other ensembles have consistent diverged from the operational run. It probably is as you say something to do with the USA cold spell, which as a fast moving system, and probably tricking the GFS operational into making an extreme cold scenario across central and western Europe..
  3. I was starting to think something interesting was going to happen maybe into February, then the 18z came out and re-iterated why we can't take it seriously, and why the other models are not jumping onto this cold spell bandwagon. For a start the GFS operational is consistently out on its own with maybe has support from a few ensembles, but generally no cross model support. The next thing was, the evolution of the GFS 18z is a little far fetched in reality, is cold air really going to intensify on the west coasts of Europe in comparison to its source in Russia?.. well it's highly unlikely given there's currently no source of genuinely cold air in central and western Europe. So whilst the 18z looks like a pretty picture for cold, it's likely just another isolated "nutjob" run from the GFS. I would definitely consider sticking with the UKMO, ICON and ECM which altogether look more realistic, even if they don't bring what we'd want to see in February.
  4. Interesting, the southern half of the country is having a colder winter than I experienced in 2010. Its all about relativity of course. There are stations down south than have had -7C or lower for the last 4 days... even in 2010 I never saw 4 nights below -7C. This morning chilly but not frosty, minimum was 1.2C currently 3.6C
  5. Currently 2.1C, likely a front tonight, maybe down to 0C tonight. Gradually warming up past the weekend but only to average for the time of year.
  6. Most of the snow has rapidly melted now, so my guess is any showers will be of rain/sleet or hail today due to higher dew points.
  7. the last shower was more sleety, definitely seemingly more marginal now, though surprisingly what's on the ground isn't melting as fast as I thought it would..
  8. Yes the clouds are literally melting away before my eyes.. really weird to see.
  9. Cute little dusting? that's considered an incredible drift around these parts lol.
  10. thanks mate, no I took covid test, but nothing.. seems like it was just a infection that festered.. maybe Bronchitis.. Im on antibiotics now and it's sorting it out. ps heavy snow here, and starting to settle!
  11. Yes. me and my sister were amazed by it, pink lightning, and heavy snow. It may have been a Polar Low in all honesty but I just didn't know enough about the weather back then, I was 10 at the time.
  12. yep, I remember 1996, a big band of convective precipitation came from the northwest, it had actually organised into a trough, but was also a streamer, it started as heavy graupel, with quite a lot of thunder and lightning, and it went on all night, by morning there was almost a foot of proper snow, it never relented through the night.. never seen anything like it since. It does looks like there will be a bit of snow around these parts tonight, with maybe a decent covering for parts of Wirral and Liverpool. I'm unfortunately recovering from pneumonia, so won't be able to go out and enjoy it, but ill watch it from the window.
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