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SP1986

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    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

    5c rainy/drizzly/wet… lovely… can hear an owl close by… 

    Gfs still out on its own… other models having none of it… we’ll see if gfs backs down next couple of days… more than likely…. Think USA cold plunge playing with Gfs output 

    Usually when GFS is onto something both the operational and control ensembles show a close similarity, they did so in the December cold spell and at quite an early point too. This time the control run and the other ensembles have consistent diverged from the operational run.

    It probably is as you say something to do with the USA cold spell, which as a fast moving system, and probably tricking the GFS operational into making an extreme cold scenario across central and western Europe..

    • Like 4

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SP1986

    I was starting to think something interesting was going to happen maybe into February, then the 18z came out and re-iterated why we can't take it seriously, and why the other models are not jumping onto this cold spell bandwagon. For a start the GFS operational is consistently out on its own with maybe  has support from a few ensembles, but generally no cross model support. 

    The next thing was, the evolution of the GFS 18z is a little far fetched in reality, is cold air really going to intensify on the west coasts of Europe in comparison to its source in Russia?.. well it's highly unlikely given there's currently no source of genuinely cold air in central and western Europe. 

    So whilst the 18z looks like a pretty picture for cold, it's likely just another isolated "nutjob" run from the GFS. I would definitely consider sticking with the UKMO, ICON and ECM which altogether look more realistic, even if they don't bring what we'd want to see in February.

    • Like 5
    • Insightful 1

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SP1986

    Interesting, the southern half of the country is having a colder winter than I experienced in 2010. Its all about relativity of course. There are stations down south than have had -7C or lower for the last 4 days... even in 2010 I never saw 4 nights below -7C. 

    This morning chilly but not frosty, minimum was 1.2C currently 3.6C

    • Like 5

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, russwirral said:

    its aso interesting to see the showers dying before they make any dent inland...  quite unusual to see such a short lifespan.  Not even getting 5 or 6 miles inland currently... usually get past the M56 at least 

    Yes the clouds are literally melting away before my eyes.. really weird to see.

    • Like 2

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

    Get well soon mate, my Mrs had the same and I've just recovered from a chest infection too, the daughter is now in bed with tonsillitis. So many people have been ill since Christmas, anything to do with Covid I wonder??

    thanks mate, no I took covid test, but nothing.. seems like it was just a infection that festered.. maybe Bronchitis.. Im on antibiotics now and it's sorting it out. 

    ps heavy snow here, and starting to settle!

    • Like 4

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SP1986

    1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

    Sounds epic. Wish I had been old enough to remember it.

    Yes. me and my sister were amazed by it, pink lightning, and heavy snow. It may have been a Polar Low in all honesty but I just didn't know enough about the weather back then, I was 10 at the time.

    • Like 6

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SP1986

    1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

    DP  now -5.1.

    Warning for tonight probably close to the Mark.
    Tomorrow night will be M6 East and above 100 m for settling snow except if under prolonged streamer as happened last month. Ice warning still warranted imo for coastal low ground as graupel can accumulate pretty rapidly. Had one inch of graupel at one point last month. 

    yep, I remember 1996, a big band of convective precipitation came from the northwest, it had actually organised into a trough, but was also a streamer, it started as heavy graupel, with quite a lot of thunder and lightning, and it went on all night, by morning there was almost a foot of proper snow, it never relented through the night.. never seen anything like it since.

    It does looks like there will be a bit of snow around these parts tonight, with maybe a decent covering for parts of Wirral and Liverpool. I'm unfortunately recovering from pneumonia, so won't be able to go out and enjoy it, but ill watch it from the window.

    • Like 6

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The suns UV was 2 today which is all but unheard of in December. Quite incredible, and more like something you'd experience in early March. 

    I don't think freezing rain will be necessarily an issue here, due to the fact the snow and ice is melting at a very quick rate, that melt water will be warming the ground to an extent, compared to what it has been. 

    • Like 3

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, russwirral said:

    Down to -6.7*c for my back garden, balmy compared to the previous nights.

     

    Ice has started to take on a whole new look, as crystals have now started to erupt from long standing ice / slush patches.  Also - seems like there is more slight coating of black ice about on pavements and roads this morning, despite being dry for nearly a week.  Felt very slippery out - despite dry floors (you can see slight shimmering on the tarmac)

     

    Ill try and get a photo of the ice crystals that have formed, but theyre on everything and protrude about 1-2cms.  Ironically deeper than any snow weve had for maybe 2 yrs?

     

     

    Sounds amazing.. nothing like that here but I'd love to see that!

    • Like 1

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at wunderground (if you can trust it), it's clear at least in Wirral, the temperatures are down to how high above sea level you are, or general topography. In West Kirby for example, the coldest areas are by the river.. where it's lower altitude. Similarly around Bebington.. higher Bebington has higher temperatures than surrounding lower areas. Obviously, and reassuringly (for the accuracy of my readings), Heswall has higher temperatures than surrounding areas, being on a hill. Parkgate in Cheshire is constantly colder due to this effect. I've been there in these types of situations and can verify Parkgate, despite being on the riverside is often much colder than anywhere else. 

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