Chiltern_Blizzard
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Everything posted by Chiltern_Blizzard
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
Chiltern_Blizzard replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Really poor show this winter (so far). We had one decent snowfall in late Jan but it melted within an hour and we have been marginal this weekend with very light snow but hardly anything settling. Bring on Spring -
So far today it seems to be mainly hugging the coastal areas and a little bit inland but no where near as what was originally envisaged
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Any thoughts on how progressive it will be? I feel Chilterns are the westerly limit?
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Breaking up as just as it gets to Luton. Not hopefully for anything now
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For those to the North and West of London it is goibg to be a nowcast i think. Currently models still not sure how far this will spread. HARMONIE, ICON and GFS for 3pm today
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Fat wet flakes here. Has been for last 20 mins. Temp dropping. Currently at 2. Not picked up as snow on radars
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Heres hoping!
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Yes. I like the HAR. Seemed to track the event 2 weeks back well. I'm feeling less and less positive. Some good snowfalls for those to the east. Id be suprised of anything in my location.
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Hello. Yes. I'm just down road. But much lower ASL I think we will see dustings tomorrow. But chances seems to be reducing. With it contained more easterly. Frustrating as last night it was showing a much further spread inland. There are always showers that will pop up. Later in week looks like it has potential
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Fingers crossed. Really hoping for a covering and more in the week. Hope you get some!
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HARMONIE does give a more westerly spread. This model did quite well on the event a few weeks back. Fingers and toes crossed for those on west side
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ARPERGE for tomorrow afternoon. You can see it has drifted further South East compared to a few days back where the spread was far further west. Im hoping im suprised. Later in day looks like some showers to pop up and Monday some potential too.
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From looking at the models drift slightly south east over the past few days. Apologises, should of been clearer it won't just be coastal areas but those much further inland i think it will be marginal.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Chiltern_Blizzard replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm minded to agree. I'm in Aylesbury so a few miles south and east. Looking marginal this weekend. More promise throughout week though -
Get the impression this weekends event will be disappointing for many except coastal parts of EA, Essex and Kent. Seems to be shrinking in size with not much chance of inland snow. Edit. Apologises was looking at more IMBY so much firther inland.
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Any idea about North home counties...e.g bucks? I think we might see something. But perhaps a tad too westerly
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The MO precip animation makes it look a far wider affair - i wonder if amber warnings will spread?
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Thanks for this. MO changing a lot - i had 5 hours of heavy now, now only 2 hours of light snow. Still uncertainty over how far west this will push? I'd be frustrated if we only get 1-5cm after seeing so many depth charts of 10cm+ in Bucks
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Let's see. The last snow event a few weekends back the Harmonie nailed it pretty much...(kept it north and east) where as Icon dropped it south. Excited to see where this goes tomorrow.
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Thanks. Great post
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No fret from me. Just saying what I see. And trying to be useful.
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I get a feeling sundays event is tracking much further south and east. Yesterday it was far further north and west (with most of EA over into northern home counties) but today I see it is tracking lower and I think by end of tomorrow the sweet spot may be east Sussex Nd Kent and areas of Suffolk. Shame for those north and west of London
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And a Watford Fan! Even better. You orns
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however, Aperge seems to want to drag this further South. Excited few days to see where this will land.
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Icon suggests it will spreader westerly
