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Lloyd1

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Everything posted by Lloyd1

  1. Lloyd1
    Again I reiterate models have no clue. Met also removed warnings for me on the west coast of wales and now it’s started to pick up again
  2. Lloyd1
    The Models don’t have a clue when it comes to this type of system and the margins. It’s a look out the window job for the next few days. I need a break from these models I think
  3. Lloyd1
    These day time temps on the models are still very mild for serious disruption mind. I’m staying optimistic but I can’t ignore this factor
  4. Lloyd1
    These models are getting interesting now, hinting at potential for -8+ pushing in. Quick thought, what were the 850 temps for that cold snap last March. Also, was that cold spell early or late March?
  5. Lloyd1
    NASA
  6. Lloyd1
    7deg+ I’d say where you are based, all location dependent. I think people need to remember our average winter temperatures sometimes when getting too emotionally caught up with these models.
  7. Lloyd1
    I Enjoy the hunt for cold and watching these models but sometimes I think to myself why I do it considering how inaccurate they are most of the time
  8. Lloyd1
    Stupid question but is it ever possible for the PV to split in to three vortices? One sitting over Canada, Asia then us?
  9. Lloyd1
    The Polar Vortex looks close to splitting on all, could that well happen?
  10. Lloyd1
    And there she goes haha
  11. Lloyd1
    Don’t let the emotions get to you with the ECM shifting. I can’t count the amount of times it has switched back in the past (likewise with GFS, GEM, etc) Relax, we still have 4 months left to enjoy.
  12. Lloyd1
    Interesting ECM run this morning. I can see battlegrounds starting to form down south.
  13. Lloyd1
    God it’s funny watching these models All over the shop. Hopefully no major downgrades like last winter (tears were shed). I can see ECM bringing something a bit milder back on the 7th but then temps slowly dropping back off, I haven’t had a chance to assess models yet today but I’m assuming it’s due to Greenland High trying to creep further east.
  14. Lloyd1
    What needs to happen for that vortex to drop down? Is it the case of the Greenland high having to push further north? (Sorry, yes I’m a novice)
  15. Lloyd1
    Does anyone have the actual December 2010 chart for comparison, thanks
  16. Lloyd1
    Do you think we are starting to see a change in pattern to our winters now, in terms of March becoming a colder winter month in comparison to the likes of December or is it just by chance we have had a couple of cold snappy spells in March. Thanks
  17. Lloyd1
    Everyone just remember these models / forecasters got the Christmas forecast completely wrong. Therefore, I still remain optimistic regardless of what both say, you never know in this game. We are still early in winter with jan / feb being coldest months so just relax a bit. Yes, I will still be reviewing models / forecasts out of enjoyment but it will be with a pinch of salt due to their winter incompetence.
  18. Lloyd1
    Also looking at 2010, the Azores pushed up in to the UK pre freeze and extremely mild weather was recorded. Remember this little video analysis, Yes I understand this is highly unlikely just trying to lift everyone’s spirits.
  19. Lloyd1
    Just memorising over 2010, the scenes.
  20. Lloyd1
    More chance of Spurs getting a trophy
  21. Lloyd1
    Good job I ordered that kayak for Xmas and an anorak
  22. Lloyd1
    Can someone with a tad of knowledge explain this gfs run, looks fantastic. Looks like it’s going against everything, even forecasting an extended cold spell right up until end of December. I always thought gfs always favoured the old jet stream and SW pattern. Thanks
  23. Lloyd1
    Do they mean change from what they forecast in the long range this morning or change as in weather in general.
  24. Lloyd1
    No, of course you are right in identifying trends / potential outcomes but you need to just be a bit more optimistic and not get overly caught up in only the negatives. Believe me, I know where you are coming from at times with frustration considering I’m from The coast of West Wales imagine how I should feel (I’ve seen snow like three times in my lifetime). Just have some optimism, at least this is something different from our normal jet stream just smashing us with a SW pattern for weeks.
  25. Lloyd1
    Ecm latest run is shocking even for last couple of days of Dec, hopefully we don’t follow suit
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