Cassivellaunus

What sort of conditions will we be looking at early Feb given what I think is a Bartlett high encroaching? Does this tend to produce fog this time of year or clear skies

No heating on here, got to 10.5 degrees in the bedroom, I was so annoyed we didn't get to single digits, I should of opened the window for a bit. It's not that bad, as long as you are doing something and moving or wrapped up warm it's perfectly bare able. Go outside for a long walk with the dog and coming back in it's like you have blasted the heating :d

They were issued very late in the day for storm Eunice in Feb 2022 and you could argue this could well be more powerful. I'm thinking they will do the same for possibly SW corner and SE coasts if track stays the same, they would not be 100% certain that it could go north or south a bit which would be 10-20mph difference locally which is probably why they are waiting. At these high wind gusts that can be the difference to loosing some fences or an old roof coming off. I don't really understand it myself as they are supposed to be warnings to let people prepare but if you don't issue a red warning until late at night a few hours before an event who is that going to help?

Anyone else surprised Met office haven't gone to amber for the wind yet? Seems fairly certain that the south is likely to get at least 80mph winds potentially higher if the track stays a little north. People are saying it's a record low pressure but is that just for November? I see the lowest ever low over UK land was in Scotland.

Hats off to met office, they were sticking to between 72-75mph gusts at peak in Hastings today while all the other models showing 80-90mph and I'd say they were spot on. Think it just warranted the red warning in the end. Worst seems to have passed but still quite gusty.

Just remembered wunderground.com you can layer up winds and rain and zoom in on weather stations latest gusts

Anyone got any good links to live wind gusts for local areas

Anyone explain why met office only has Hastings down for 73mph gusts? All the maps look between 80-90mph

Completely agree with mock up. I really think met will be regretting not doing this. Amber warning is just not sufficient to stop people going about their work day with bosses putting pressure on people.

Think met office have called this wrong, think all of south and south West and east should be red. If they change to red later tonight or tomorrow morning they have left it way to late. Even if we're talking 80mph gusts which is likely going to be a lower estimate. This is going to bring down many trees and debris on the roads and turn over lorries and vans. I can see many fatalities under trees on the roads and people should have been warned to stay in. So many people dismissing this as an average storm I feel sorry for all those working on roads tomorrow I would refuse to work if I was a driver. Hope I'm wrong

Interesting site. I was looking at wind turbines the other day and they shut automatically down around 55mph depending on size to protect machinery. Though the winds have been perfect these past couple of weeks in high 30s and 40s when the storms haven't been on top of us. They all have a wind survival speed which I believe is somewhere around 130mph depending on size but wouldn't be surprised to see a few damaged.

Don't understand the met office decision on this. We have amber warnings for Dudley on either Sunday/Monday which I agree with. We are now less than 48 hrs away and we are still on yellow warnings for a storm that could be the most damaging for years. I get that the track could shift last minute but surely this should have been upgraded to an amber. It should have been done yesterday covering a large area for potential track even if it does not come off. I'm talking to people about the potential storm and they laugh it off as if it's not going to happen. There BBC weather apps saying 50-60mph and met office has only just updated to 68mph but yet the charts you guys are showing have been between 80-100mph which for some people will be the difference between losing an odd tile or losing their roof or worse their life as they may avoided that journey if they had known earlier. Really disappointed in their warning system on this, I think they have played it too safe but we shall see I guess.

Clouds look ready to burst here in Hastings but nothing on the radar, any chance something unexpected due?

Snowing in Hastings lightly for past half an hour. Only just settling on cars and grass so far. Are temps still to drop or will they warm up?

I think the models are currently beginning to take in to account the effects of the SSW event and it's clear we are getting massive swings between runs. I like to imagine a pendulum on an old clock, it's currently just at its highest swinging point due to the crazy effects of the SSW and it will continue to flip from extremes over the next few days and will hone it's way down to a solution in between, becoming less extreme as it goes. We will then start to see more consistency and agreement in the models in around a week to two weeks. I would suggest no one knows the answer at the moment to if it will go to the epic charts of GFS-p last night or the more mild option shown by UKMO this morning. At an educated guess I would suggest that neither extreme options are likely and there is more chance of favouring an overall colder theme with some more benign milder intrusions. This is based on the fact that SSW's usually increase our chances of cold but does not guarantee it, the overall lack of amplification in the jet on our side of the globe and the blocking over the Atlantic. I believe we will remain on the boundary of any colder weather coming from the north and east and the more milder high pressure over the Atlantic. This would give us cold chances that remain marginal at times and at other times more favourable like we are about the witness this week. I've seen nothing to suggest a return to westerly Atlantic driven lows we all dread but as the UKMO chart has shown we could end up with the blocking high sitting to far over us as it drops further east and south a bit which would introduce slightly milder but nice and calm weather. I do feel we can all get caught up in seeing individual charts either mild or extreme cold and convince our selves this will be the outcome. I would like to point out I am not experienced like some people on the site but having a go at providing a balanced view on the current situation, feel free to point out if I have got anything wrong.