metallikat34

ECMWF EPS running now, albeit the 6z version. Mean is still showing a strong signal for snow across much of Scotland by Thursday evening.

Bleh. A cold rain with some sleet pellets mixed in this morning. The orientation of the “streamers” off the North Sea are not favorable at all. Straight north to south motion is flooding is with marine layer air! I’ve actually lost a decent amount of snow cover on the pavement here in south Edinburgh, which is a bit depressing.

They are still warmer than average for sure. But trending cooler it seems. The anomaly was warmer in the last few weeks of December. In any case, it's actually probably better to have a slightly warmer North Sea. Adds more moisture to the low levels!

Good analysis! I am not sure dew points will be an issue, but any "warm" air at 925 to 850 will be crucial to surface precipitation type. One good thing is that the trend has been colder with these streamers off the North Sea over the past 5-7 days. I suspect (although I can't verify) that SST's and accompanying North Sea air is trending colder than average right now. That region has been in a pretty dominant northeast/east flow for a good 7 days now, which is probably starting to impact the background atmosphere state. Will probably need to watch the orientation of the that developing surface trough in the wee hours of Sunday morning. Will make a big difference in how the orientation of the winds off the water.

No worries! You need thick skin to play in the online weather community. Glad to be a part of this group!

I mean, it is me. But the comparison is even more un-nerving. Best we leave that be. How about the new photo? No resemblance to creepy royalty I hope?

Guilty. American units are hard to shake.

This is quite the range of temperatures across Edinburgh and the Lothians right now. Is this a typical temperature pattern on such a cool night?

The only nice thing about that statement is the "young" part....

Wow! That's some impressive radiation cooling at a spot that doesn't usually cool down that way. I am about 8 miles to the southeast of the airport and my station is hovering at 0 and -1.

Was just having a look at this myself. The flow is certainly favorable (from the northeast and off the North Sea). But the timing isn't great, as it looks like the steadiest precipitation arrives midday, which does not bode well for temperatures. I suspect that it's going to be hard for anything to stick below 500 m. This precipitation won't be "convective" like early Monday morning was, and as such, we likely won't get the benefit of dynamic cooling. So, I am less enthused about tomorrows snow chances than I was 24 hours ago. That said, plenty of opportunities in the long range pattern for wintery weather! The major SSW has begun!

I actually think the setup for Thursday snow looks more favorable than last night!

Heavy snow in Edinburgh! At least 3 cm on the ground and still coming down at a good clip.

I am suspicious of these radar precipitation type algorithms tonight. Super shallow layer of cold air and a rather unstratified lower level. I think the details are being lost with some of the precipitation particulate density and type

I think you will be just fine out there! Keeping my fingers crossed here in Comiston.

I would agree with that. I am on the south side of Edinburgh. Outside temp at my station is 33.4 F with a dew point of 31.6. So a little room to "wet bulb" down to freezing.

Have a link to those @Benvironment obs?

As you say, I am not sure the GFS is capturing the 925 layer very well. Based on the surface low position, forecasted movement and the weak pressure ridge over the North Sea, I think the 925 winds should have a more northeast component. But even still, the layer is shallow nonetheless as you say. Terrain likely the biggest driver of who gets what tonight.

Yes, it looks like some fetch off the North Sea late tomorrow afternoon and evening is the best shot at snow for the Lothians

Still can't get over this! 955 low just off the western coast of Scotland. 961 at my house (red star) and not a hint of any poor weather.

961 mb at my house in Edinburgh! But with mostly sunny skies and little wind.

The trend is a friend to snow lovers. Latest EWMWF (left) versus previous run. Significant displacement of the low pressure to the east. A good set up for snow!

Good analysis @LomondSnowstorm! As you say, it's all about the track and position of the storm center. I think snow for northern and western Scotland is a sure thing. But whether this becomes a more wide spread snow event for Scotland is still up for debate. Here on the eastern end of the central belt, my fingers are crossed, but I am not so sure. Instability will play a big role, but how much instability can we expect given the significant surface temperature drops? Still, I am excited at the possibilities!