Kasim Awan

I get 80mph atleast twice a year, because I get those events which are limited to 1500ft+, so the forecast 80mph here is not as impactful as 65mph on low levels.

Well on that observation chart gusts of 55-60mph inland are pretty significant so the arpege was likely onto something even if it didn’t fully materialise. We can’t just discount it given how severe it could be, the stakes are very high and it is a definite possibility. What if this time the mechanisms responsible for the higher wind gust potential fully materialised but we shrugged off the possibility? It’s not safe to go off anecdotal evidence and past events / just the UKV when the impacts are this high. It could quite easily affect the central belt of Scotland this is a high concern.

No way do we get this magnitude storm once or twice a year, once every 2 or 3 years at a push probably more like once every 4 years for the extent of 65mph winds.

60-70mph widely for inland areas is not to be taken lightly as it is a 1 in 5 year event.

Oh I’d go with Arpege and Icon over the UKV. Hope is unnecessary now we’re facing a likely severe sting in the far NW with 60-70mph widely inland I feel a widespread amber is needed.

100mph possible in the sting jet into western Scotland at low levels supported by arpege and icon.

Probably no more than random noise at that range.

Wet snow since 6am.

Yeah I know you wern't haha, just saying high ground to the West of Buxton is very good for snow, moreso than Kinder area in my opinion. People don't believe but I get the perspective living here I see the drifts that are usually out of main view.

November 2021 and March 2023 were really decent snow events with severe drifting snow 20ft drifts in the area, to have those two events in these mild times in close succession is very good achievement.

Yeah 4cm of snow here for 6 days is really trivial here.

I'd give this cold spell 2/10 for my location.

I don't think this is changing much overnight.

Currently -3.5C, 4cm of snow on the ground.

A batch of showers moving down 6-8pm, 1-3cm Cumbria elsewhere scattered dustings. Around 30% chance of 1-5cm widely from a more potent streamer.

The climatic snow increases as you go east in the region is very bold. I'd say every mile and 30ft of altitude gets you an extra 15 minutes falling snow per Winter.

Overall the NW (low level inland) sees insignificant 2-5cm falls more frequently than you (low level inland), with the coastal strip seeing infrequent small falls and very rare massive falls. Higher ground above 250m sees consistent moderate to heavy falls.

That is on par with low elevation parts of West Cheshire and Western Greater Manchester. But this is still a lot more than west of the M6 which you probably see a little more snow than there. However far less than even the slightly elevated parts of the region, 150m asl East of Manchester will see atleast 2x that. So overall the North West is slightly snowier as your mid level areas see the same as our low level areas.

I absolutely agree there is a signal for waa into western Scandinavia but we're missing low heights over Iberia. As a result a Scandinavian high will unlikely result in easterly winds in the UK and have very little impact on UK conditions.

I have no idea how suddenly the concensus is that Scandinavian heights are somehow likely. The last 7 days has shown us that the atmosphere is very resistant to any sustained blocking signal. No model output reliably shows a Scandinavian high building in a sustained manner. All output shows features of a phase of strong zonal winds which in El Nino late winter periods tends to be a sustained period. For me this one is complete heresay as I see nothing to suggest the possibility. This is just referring to the next 10-14 days after this options are on the table, as they are with every long term outlook. The overall pattern is conducive to mild weather.

No I'm not too focused. They're there and they're very influential. This time I'm not backing down from my ascertions which are scientifically and evidentially supported. A cold easterly wind is not possible with a 580hpa high over Iberia, no arguing that.

Come on now guys exceptional mild on that chart and no scope for cold due to the stonking Iberian heights.

That to me looks like a bog standard very mild chart with minimal scope for cold.

Nice to see however I have seen similar from a toppler northerly so this doesn't mean anything.

Looking at that I don't think you can argue against that this has been a big letdown. Many are trying to spin this cold spell saying "the synoptics were good and it was cold". No the signal was not strong enough for the synoptics required to produce decent snowfall. The greenland high sunk and the Iberian high strengthened. Little chance of majoe snow when those two happen together. That was obvious around a week ago.