[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Now 2cm down.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Got heavy snow now.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Very likely February's CET will be atleast 6C.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Still got 2/3ft drifts next to dry stone walls.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Spah1 Glossop too low down too sheltered.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

20cm level here.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

7cm level snow.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Does anyone below 200m have settling snow?

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

5/6cm here now.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Looked again closer could be a fairly widespread area of moderate wet snow 8am-1pm, very locally up to 2cm but generally a dusting west Lancashire with more limited accumulation east of the M6 until you get above 150m East Manchester, down to 100m North of Manchester. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I'm not seeing anything more than a dusting away from the favoured Pennines. Perhaps parts of West Lancashire / Wirral may reach 1-2cm but very limited bulk of Greater Manchester and Cheshire. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

In general forecast amounts have increased over 300m and decreased on low ground. This due to a faster moving front which pushes in milder air quickly but as conducive conditions persist at elevation, above around 300m will benefit from the heavier precipitation associated with a more northerly track.

As it stands a spell of sleety precipitation within the shield Macclesfield to M6 with some brief wet snow with dustings possible above 200ft around the Wirral. This phase lasting 2-3 hours before a quick lift of the snow line to 250m+ and North East of Macclesfield forecast by around 2pm, and 200m+ North East of Oldham. To the East of the Pennines again brief accumulation to lower levels before the snow line rises to 200m+ through the afternoon. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Thoroughly knackered today so no update.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 northwestsnow You do well in an easterly front aswell especially 250m+. Remember it's the drop in elevation on the western side of the Pennines that causes the air to dry and warm. So if Manchester was above 200m it'd still get snow, albeit lighter than 200m further East.

@Joe Bloggs it's very rarely discussed.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Joe Bloggs 

Blame the last 800 million years of geological uplift and last 10 or so glacial periods for calving away the central Cambrian mountains.

It's because of how extensive the high ground is. 60-70 miles of 300-600m land to your South East, whereas only 30-40miles to your east but Kinder plateau is there. However in a convective flow the topography to your east allows some intensification into Glossop / Oldham and into East Manchester and helps keep some intensity further West aswell. This is not the case on a frontal system as convective flows have different physics involved.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 frosty ground 2-4cm above 150m so easily 10cm+ above 250m or so.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

There will be no shield away circled so Manchester city centre, Ashton, Stockport, Wilmslow and Poynton.

So places like Northwich, Warrington, Liverpool, Wirral, etc are still in for a decent chance. Will update tomorrow.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 loubie_4 You are under the West Lancashire area which has a reasonable chance of some settling wet snow. You are out of the snow shield but still need optimal conditions for snow. 

@tvh3382 I don't know East Lancashire all that well. I'd say scattered accumulations between Blackpool and 100m early on then 2-4cm above 100m or east of Accrington / Haslingden with 8cm above 350m.

@winterof79 You are not quite in 10cm+ at 160m. I'd say 3-7cm more likely at such a modest altitude. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 raul_sbd You'll be fine from Glossop. Trains in Buxton don't stop unless drifts are upto train window level.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Good evening folks.

Confidence is now high to very high regarding an area of disruptive snowfall moving into the Peak District through Thursday day. 
Regarding timing current indication is for around a 7-8am start with moderate quickly accumulating snowfall down to all elevations within the Peak District. Snowfall could start as early as 6am.
Through mid morning and into the afternoon snowfall will continue to accumulate at all levels. By mid afternoon accumulations between 12 and 20cm (5-8inches) are most likely above 280metres (900ft) within the Peak District, with accumulations between 3 and 10cm at lower altitudes.
This likely to lead to further travel issues through Thursday evening. Wind gusts will also increase through Thursday afternoon, gusts will be particularly strong above 450m (1500ft) across the western Peak District, perhaps gusting to 55mph through the afternoon, which could lead to drifting of snow.
Through the afternoon and evening a switch to sleet/rain is possible at elevations below around 200m/600ft. However, the likelihood is that through Thursday evening any precipitation above 250m will likely remain as snow or hail which could lead to additional accumulations into Friday. Therefore, accumulations towards 25cm (10 inches) are possible above 350m by Friday morning.
Through Friday morning, it is likely that the snow line will begin to rise in altitude leading to an increasing thaw at lower and mid elevations below 300m, however on some routes above 400m drifts may stick around.

There is still a slight chance that the snow system could move further South. However, this would only produce lighter accumulations of 5-10cm and not completely move the snow away.

Greater Manchester / Cheshire. 

Those in lower parts of Cheshire and Greater Manchester between 30m and 100m can expect periodic bouts of slight accumulation from sleet / wet snow mixed with ice pellets early on Thursday. A slight covering between 100m and 175m possible early Thursday with more substantial accumulation likely to be limited to 200m+, particularly across North East Greater Manchester where accumulations of 2-4cm are likely above 150m North and East of Oldham, later leading to drifting through Saddleworth into M62 areas. 
The snow line will then lift through all levels into the afternoon. However remain as snow above 350m leading to further issues on higher routes.

Merseyside / West Lancashire / West Cheshire.

Areas west of Manchester and towards the Merseyside coast may see a more substantial area of heavier sleet and perhaps wet snow through Thursday. Here, elevations between the coast and 100m may see accumulations up to 3cm before a progression to rain through the afternoon. In particular higher parts of West Lancashire, elevated West Cheshire above 200ft may see a period of settling wet snow.

North West Midlands.

The North West Midlands is likely to see more extensive accumulations of 1-7cm through Shropshire, Staffordshire and South Derbyshire with above 8cm locally above 200m. However, a tight gradient leading to lesser accumulations North of Stoke on Trent upto Macclesfield and North Cheshire such that towns such as Sandbach, Holmes Chapel see lesser and more sporadic accumulations which then phase out into Greater Manchester.
Milder air will push into this region later in the evening lifting the snow line above 250m.

Yorkshire.

Across West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire a gradient for snow accumulation is likely to form between low elevations east of Sheffield and west of Lincolnshire seeing a period of heavy sleet / wet snow producing slight amounts of up to 2cm with scattered accumulations of wet snow producing 1-4cm between 80m and 150m with amounts increasing to 10cm+ above 200m West of Sheffield and Leeds.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

A textbook strengthening of the Iberian high and warm upper air plume on the GFS18Z.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

A phase of settling wet snow within the shield on the leading edge of the front is entirely possible, but the strong easterlies after this would lead to a strong shield effect.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I'm afraid there will be a fairly strong sheild effect in place but not as strong as a more SE flow as the flow is ESE this time.

500mb heights aren't particularly low, lower 500mb heights means frontal convection is less affected by surface interaction, but heights aren't quite low enough for this to take place. My take is a sleety mess for lowland Manchester / Cheshire with some temporary accumulations West Cheshire / Wirral, then a slight covering South / Eash Cheshire & >150m Greater Manchester, sharply increasing to 10cm+ above 250m.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Unlikely to see any significant snow South of the central Midlands- reason is a push of high pressure from the Azores which pushes the cold northwards quickly. Making blizzard preparations here though, expecting a significant event.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Shield between M6 and say Macclesfield.