StormyLincs

You didn’t need to go to the other side of the country to find snow. There’s been several bouts of lying snow 5 miles west of here on the Wolds and almost everywhere else in the county. It just didn’t like the coast this winter for some reason.

So do I, but it’s snowed everywhere else in Lincs bar this area this winter. Maybe it will make up for our earlier losses this time around.

I wonder if the Lincs coast snow shield will hold firm as it has so far right through this winter?

We had very little snow on the coast even during BFTE despite having lower 850’s. Higher North Sea temperatures are the culprit these days due to global warming.

I think you’ll do much better being 65 miles inland, as anyone nearer the east coast will probably receive sleet or cold rain.

It shall be known as The Valentines Storm.

Yes I take all that on board and mainly agree with you. I was kinda being facetious as to how people dump models in favour or others when they don’t like what they see. ECM is usually the safer and more steady model out of the bunch in normal times.

I’m getting the popcorn ready for this evening’s entertainment as I type. It’s far better than the soaps on the tele.

Well the GFS was the best thing since the invention of the wheel up until yesterday. Today it’s about as useful as a chocolate fire guard. Us weather watchers are a fickle bunch.

Looks like it doesn’t it.

The ECM was awful up until today but now seems to be the king, whereas the GFS’s halo has slipped somewhat this evening. My gut feeling for a long while is that we’ll get a very cold spell in February, so I’m not too bothered about what it’s showing (at the moment).

Says most of the people in the MO thread when it was the only one showing Siberian conditions

Just more than slightly concerned by the GFS 12z that’s all really. I’ve been watching these charts for 2 decades now and I just think it looks cold but nothing exceptional and quickly dispensed with.

I have and it’s good. But the GFS was king up until now.

I’m excited by the prospects of a cold and snowy spell but completely underwhelmed by the GFS 12z, although in fairness most of the other models are cracking for cold.

I thought I’d post it in this thread rather than model output for fear of being eaten alive by the coldies. I just had a look at the GFS 12Z and to be quite honest I was pretty disappointed after seeing all the euphoria in the MO thread. True it does bring an easterly, but it looks fairly short lived and is quickly replaced by a wishy-washy slack northerly before the Atlantic comes piling in again, with just a small chance of a reload in deepest FI. Am I missing something here? ??

I hope The Samaritans have got plenty of staff on standby.

I noticed the GFS 6z seemed to be going along the same lines. I remain very concerned that this cold spell will only last a few days or may not even happen at all.

There seems to be a lot of foaming at the mouth about how the ECM has flipped to the other models today, so I thought I’d have a look. To my untrained eye it doesn’t look that great at all. That pesky low to the south still doesn’t want to clear away until FI and as soon as it does the cold block is immediately under attack from the SW. Now I don’t know whether the milder air would win out, but from where I’m standing it looks like a pretty potent thrust northeastwards. All the usual caveats of course, it’s FI, more runs needed etc etc etc.

I was commenting on the silliness that goes on when there’s one or two bad runs shown on the Model output. It’s been one hell of a winter for the models and the viewers this winter. My gut feeling as someone who has been interested in weather since I was a kid ( a very long time) is that there will be a very cold spell this February at some point, and there will be snow for some and maybe many very soon. People just need to chill and not make too much over a couple of bad runs. At the end of the day it’s only weather and there’s not much anyone can do to change it.

Quite agree. It needs to be an incredibly powerful Greenland high to guarantee cold weather in the UK. Even then we’re always likely to come under attack from systems to our SW. Scandi/ Iceland high is much better for the UK.

It is quite funny to read it all to be fair. It happens every time on there.

Looks like a douze point to the ECM for sticking to its guns

I’m afraid the cold air won’t reach the UK this time as the EU have decided to ration it and keep it strictly limited to the continent. Due to a shortage of snow in Europe this winter they feel they are quite entitled to keep it themselves and not share with anyone outside the union. So very sorry, but winter’s over for the UK.

I think it’s people like me that live near the coast are the first ones to see the effects of global warming, as it could be marginal for snow at the best of times. It’s certainly becoming more difficult to get snow lying here than it was 10 or 20 years ago. And of course as the temperature continues to rise the effect will be felt in other areas that are less marginal than here. I suspect only truly cold spells will deliver snow to coastal areas now and in the future.