Frigid

Horrible output. RIP Winter 2023/24.. you just know it'll deliver in March-April.

A lot of anger circulating around, and rightfully so. This is up there with one of the most disappointing winters I've ever experienced, not because it was mild and wet throughout but the background signals were all favouring a cold winter and yet we're set to get one of the mildest in living memory. For the longest time, Jan-Feb was looking to be quite cold. A month ago, the GLOSEA had the strongest signal for northern blocking I can remember for February but it's all come to nothing. Reminds me of last summer when July was looking quite promising for warmth, but what we got was the opposite. The MJO in a favourable position, very negative AO and weak jet yet we still get a mediocre month. I'm this close to giving up on winters in general, summer doesn't really interest me so it's either spring or autumn.. and we know how boring they can be. Hopefully we get a BFTE ending, or a cold March. Coldies have been deprived for years..

reef I still think months like July 1988 are possible. Great example would be July 2020, was very cool for the first 25 days until the heat spike pushed it well into the 15s. That month in general reminded me of the cool summer months we had from 2007-12. Pretty sure the CET was hovering around the upper 14s for a while.

East Lancs Rain June 76 was quite cool at the start and middle. July turned much cooler in the last 10 days which stretched into the start of August.

raz.org.rain A summer that's entirely hot and sunny would be impressive, but incredibly hard to achieve in our climate. All of the hottest summers we've endured have had their fair share of cooler spells. In Summer 22, it was cool for the majority of June, July was cool and damp in the north for the first 10 and last 10 days. August 2018 was predominately cool, especially the final 10 days. June 2013 was quite chilly, June 1995 also.. I can go on. There hasn't been an instance where the entire summer was warm, but individual months completely devoid of cool weather yes. Recent examples such as August 2022, July 2018, June 2023 etc. Interestingly, if we put June 2023, July 2022 and August 2022 together we could be quite close to a summer without cool and wet weather.. so I wouldn't say it's impossible. That combination would be wild though, easily being the warmest on record.

Hilarious . Don't think it'll be as good as the spell last month. The temp was -1C for the whole time it snowed, looks quite marginal at 3C.

bluearmy The no of members going for a reversal has increased significantly today, of course it can revert back to previous showings but I'd like to think this trend will continue. Positive signs..

I don't buy into this 'record mild February' theory. Yes the models are showing a mild outlook but anything from the 15th is pure guesswork.

Mike Poole The best chart I've seen all day, perhaps it's not all bad. That really is a sharp decrease in zonal winds, especially since a few days ago it was showing nothing like it. GFS also playing with the idea of a reversal, many members dipping to -15m/s. Seems like it'll be a lot more notable than the one we had in mid January.. question is will it deliver the goods or another mild borefest. Still got hope we'll see something special this month.

Dreadful 12z's today, no sign of anything cold.

Every time there's a cold signal it rapidly deteriorates into something insignificant and nondescript. Again, it looks like another failed cold month after so many supportive signals for cold. I know it's not ideal but I hope we see a March belter, cold and snowy throughout would put all winter sorrow to bed. Wouldn't mind another March 2013 or 2018, though of course they are exceptionally rare.

Could be a lot worse.. Thursday may have a bit of snow too. Certainly a better outlook than from a few days ago.

I find it remarkable how cool and dry the summer was, quite an odd combination. Must've been a horror show for warm fans, with the only appreciable amount of warmth being a 2-day spell at the end of June. The heatwave at the end of September into October was more prolonged and warmer.. and with a record breaking warm April, such a strange year for weather. You could make some comparisons with 2011 and 2023, as all the warmth was outside of its usual months being July/August. 2023 also had a CET record for September, same with April 2011. Big difference is the rainfall, 2023 being exceptionally wet.

Looks promising..

Not sure about that, the signal is for blocking to become more prevalent as the month goes on. I'm not seeing any evidence for 'ridiculously mild' weather to follow. Ens are split between mild and cold after mid month. Quite a strong signal for -AO to mid month and the GFS are keen to prolong the cold. EC46, Exeter and BBC Update also firm on cold to continue.. Of course it could all be wrong as seen many times but it shouldn't be ignored.

Thankfully this mild spell is short-lived. Should be over by Tuesday, and by the looks of it could turn much colder with snow chances. GFS 00z has us in cold for at least a week. SSW signals also strengthening so the potential for a colder March is there. Things are looking much better after weeks of dismal model watching

SunSean Yes, if the supposed SSW does occur I hope we see a month similar to April 2021. It was drier and sunnier than the fabled April 2020, but temps were flipped around. Harsh frosts and most of the rainfall in the first half was from snowfall. I do recall from the 13th onwards seeing continuous unbroken sunshine.. what a lovely month. What I don't want to see is another April 2012 or 2023, boring and dull. Can't recall a single thing from last April.

Not as mild as I expected, certainly looked like mid 5s a week ago. Same CET as 2022, and I suspect a similar sunshine amount too. Can only recall around 3-4 deluge days, mostly dry. So an average January, quite challenging to get anything close to average these days. Though if the last 10 days were just average, the CET would've been much lower.

@MattStoke We can pretty much say January has hit 20C. Reminds me of when Oct 2011 hit 29.9C..

@raz.org.rain Tbf we still get cold weather in May.. think 2021, 2020, 2019, 2013 etc. May 2020 had a potent northerly with -10C uppers in Scotland, many forget this due to the warmth a week later.

@TwisterGirl81 December was one of the mildest on record. Pretty sure Christmas Eve was the mildest on record. Only appreciable amount of cold we've had are the first two days of December and 15-19th Jan. Now imagine the equivalent in summer.. terrible.

I hope we see some cold in Spring to compensate for the lack in winter. Something similar to April 2021, very sunny and cold would be great. Can understand the frustration with it being cloudy 24/7.

@Weather Enthusiast91 This. We pretty much get a warm record every year now, getting a cold one is incredibly rare. Last year we had two record breaking warm months, and now this. In the last 10 years the only months I'd describe as cold are February 2018, January 2021, April 2021, May 2021. The first half of 2021 was interesting as it was the first time we saw a pretty cold first half since 2013, of course it didn't last.

19.6C.. in January. Depressing to see, yet another mild record broken. At least it didn't make it down south, a measly 10C max here today.

More to do with personal preference, but I understand for some the cold isn't viable. At least the current spell will have a positive impact for some.