Frigid

feb1991blizzard Pretty extreme that, and a lot more notable than the failed excuse of a reversal we saw a few days back. Hoping to see more upgrades

A rather extreme case this year.. say we get an 8C February, a warm March could still come under it. I'd say the opposite happened in 2013 when February was already cold but March trumped it.

Roger J Smith If we get an April similar to 2012/2016/2021 then it could happen this year, the first this century. Obviously depends where February ends up, current projections look to be 8C+ so a high likelihood March will come under and April a low chance but still possible. If we do get an 8C February then it'd be warmer than March 2022 which is quite ridiculous, and close to March 2012 CET.

Too early to predict, but what I can say is March could well be cooler than the February. The last time this happened was 2013.

RJBingham Agree, only 1C above average. In other words, nice and cool.. much cooler than the mild spell we've been having

raz.org.rain Really? Looks quite average going into March. Definitely no signs of mild, it's gotta break at some point.

This February is up there with one of the worst, if not THE worst I've ever experienced. Funny, as these were the charts a month prior.. complete opposite. For a time, it actually looked like it would be the coldest February since 2010.. of course what we're getting is one of the mildest on record. Reminds me of July 2023 which was supposed to be warm given the forecasts, but ended up being the complete opposite. Hilarious.

raz.org.rain literally anything can happen.. cold, warmth or nothing like we've seen with the past few SSWs. One thing we can agree with, is that zonal winds will be very low into March so be prepared for some wild weather!

2023: 5/10 First half was alright, didn't get any snowfall but was quite cold at times. Second half was a bore fest. 2022: 6/10 Sunny for the most part, the cold spell at the end was great. Flurries and frosts. 2021: 3/10 Gloomy and repetitive. The warmth at the end was interesting however. 2020: 6/10 Sunny, anticyclonic for the most part 2019: 5/10 Quite chilly at times, with a few flurries in the first half. 2018: 9/10 Excellent month, featuring the BFTE and it's little brother. 2017: 1/10 The literal opposite of 2018 2016: 7/10 Great snowfall on the 4th, reaching 10cm in some parts. Heaviest snowfall ever since. 2015: 6/10 Anticyclonic and cool. Decent month 2014: 4/10 Can't remember much. 2013: 10/10 The bees knees of March's. What a spectacular month that was. 2012: 2/10 The literal opposite of 2013 2011: 4/10 Can't remember much 2010: 7/10 Cold spell at the start of the month, can't recall much afterwards. Don't care for warmth in March, for me it's all about cold.. like for some, how September is for warmth. Some of the best March spells I can remember are in 2010, 2013, 2016, 2018 and the final days of March 2022 where we saw a late snowfall.

Cheshire Freeze Wouldn't be surprised if March's CET came in below February. I mean.. it wouldn't be a tall order considering we're experiencing an exceptionally mild month.

feb1991blizzard Mean going below 0 again in March.. laughable really. The strat has been trolling us all winter, only about time it delivers the goods

WYorksWeather Thought the same too, the mild regime is becoming quite established atm. Haven't seen a below average month since Dec 22, and that month featured a lengthy mild spell. The streak of mild months is going to have to break at some point.. Perhaps it be this spring. I genuinely think its more likely we see air frosts in Spring than this month given zonal winds weakening and a higher likelihood of blocking. April has seen it's fair share of frosts lately, wouldn't be surprised if April was cooler than February this year..

On the plus side, GEFS 6z does lower the mean uppers. Nothing spectacular but it's a start.

WYorksWeather Did feel a bit like 31st March 2017, but six week earlier. Got quite stuffy last night had to open the windows. The spell we got in Feb 2008/2019 featured mild days and frosty nights which is what I expect from a mild spell in February. Yesterday felt like early June, you usually do get lower temps around here in summer.

Atmogenic Maybe because we hardly had a winter?? Mid August people are still searching for warmth so it only makes sense. Winter can still show it's hand way into March, still some chances of cold albeit increasingly small.

Three months of April 2021 synoptics in spring would be the dream tbh. Driest April since 2011 that was, and coldest since '86.. what an excellent month. I do enjoy some warmth in May and June as it's quite pleasant around then, come Jul/Aug then it becomes a humid mess.

Vile weather for late winter, happens year on year it's been ages since we've seen a cold second half to February. Very frustrating.. Looking forward to some cold in Spring, you just know there's a better chance of it than in winter. A largely cool, anticyclonic with a few warmer days scattered about would make a great Spring

In Absence of True Seasons Thought so too, currently 13C but it doesn't feel as mild as I expected. More like experiencing low teens in September after summer..

East Lancs Rain First option.. no questions asked. Possibly the perfect climate imo.

Looks like after an initial rise in zonal winds, another dip is forecasted with the mean sticking around 0m/s.. quite a strong signal that. The SSW occurs on the 20th it seems, wouldn't be surprised to see wild swings in the MO this spring. Could be an interesting season ahead of us.

That weekend was incredibly chilly for the time of year, the 3rd June saw single digit maxima. Interestingly, the Platinum Jubilee 10 years later saw almost the same weather. 2012 did have its fair share of warm weather though, with its March and May heatwave. End of July saw some warm days and August during the third week. Can recall the first 10 days of September being quite warm at times.

baddie Would love a March version of April 2021. A largely anticyclonic, cold spring would be great after this sad excuse of a winter. It's an almost certainty that it'll get warm sometime this year so plenty of time for some cold

Horrible output. RIP Winter 2023/24.. you just know it'll deliver in March-April.

A lot of anger circulating around, and rightfully so. This is up there with one of the most disappointing winters I've ever experienced, not because it was mild and wet throughout but the background signals were all favouring a cold winter and yet we're set to get one of the mildest in living memory. For the longest time, Jan-Feb was looking to be quite cold. A month ago, the GLOSEA had the strongest signal for northern blocking I can remember for February but it's all come to nothing. Reminds me of last summer when July was looking quite promising for warmth, but what we got was the opposite. The MJO in a favourable position, very negative AO and weak jet yet we still get a mediocre month. I'm this close to giving up on winters in general, summer doesn't really interest me so it's either spring or autumn.. and we know how boring they can be. Hopefully we get a BFTE ending, or a cold March. Coldies have been deprived for years..

reef I still think months like July 1988 are possible. Great example would be July 2020, was very cool for the first 25 days until the heat spike pushed it well into the 15s. That month in general reminded me of the cool summer months we had from 2007-12. Pretty sure the CET was hovering around the upper 14s for a while.