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Hanging our hats on solely ukv is a dangerous game. We might get the odd shower that’ll crop up last minute but, based on the outputs available tonight as a whole, I think S.coast of England is the best chance of anything tangible. (This is bordering if not regional material) Experience tells me that southward corrections are likely whilst northward less so. And that’s what we would need for us to really see anything tangible imo. …but never say never. Nos Da!

The Black Mountains would do well if that came off, and you’d save a few hours at 20mph!

Your area is my favourite in the whole of wales with weather like this - everywhere you look is stunning. The amount of times I’ve driven up to Elan for it is borderline unnecessary

We’ve had a 2/3inches here in Llandaf. Pretty wet. nothing on the roads of note. Just got back from dropping the partner to work in Nantgarw, a few miles up the A470 and definitely less marginal up there (though the Garth (c.304m) isn’t exactly covered either) . Heavy precipitation due now for a while but this will be a short lived affair imo unfortunately (re. Near enough sea level). Glad most have seen something! It’s been a rough ride the last couple years in the MOD thread

Long term spectator eyes here, but I thought the same - when these started hinting at Scandi and easterlies earlier this week, it took me straight back to the initial 2009 freeze. Appreciate looking at previous set-ups and the subsequent conditions in years gone by isnt tonnes of use, hoar frost was the precursor in my neck of the woods and there has been patches about

As someone all of 2miles south of the M4, after the past 12hrs, I’m looking into Tanqueray endorsements

Just to throw some perspective at this (sorry mod’s - appreciate this is somewhat derailing); I too have been kicking about in here for years but TI and Jon Snow’s delivery of their analysis, I quite often take in more from those than any others where you can get lost in technical phrases. People learn differently. Anyways, nearly sausage bap and Stella’s all round time of year!

I was just beginning to think how this sort of feels like how storm Emma evolved and how SW and my area S.Wales are really still in the game. Though, I’m sure the more educated in here will be able to educate how this set-up differs. I live at sea level and a gritter became stranded on a road facing the sea - by the time the storm blew over, all that was visible was the top section of the windscreen and the little ‘spreading’ box on the roof.

Apologies if this is a IMBY post but thought it maybe of use to echo what other members have said about the models not grasping what is happening right now - I live at sea level and on a freshwater marina (Cardiff Bay). We were forecast 0c for a couple hours by The Organisation last night. I’ve just woken up and the marina is frozen over. First time that has happened in 5 years of living here. Admittedly, this is likely possible due to no wind and Welsh lock down preventing the fishing charters/yachts going anywhere, but may also indicate how long this cold spell has been kicking around for.

Morning - same as yourself (it’s literally in my name). The trick (and what everyone is doing with FL charts) is to spot trends amongst all the available runs Yes, they maybe unlikely but; a) fun to look at b) the more that come onboard with a certain trend, (in theory) a higher rate of verifying.