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Scott Ingham

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Everything posted by Scott Ingham

  1. They don’t show crap outcomes though snowmut. Repost them now and let people decide. There was more support for cold than mild 15-22nd. I’m not sure what you are getting at?
  2. Thanks mate this is why I post more in regionals the past 2 years and not on here because everyone is far too emotional and sensitive!
  3. One gfs op isn’t a chart to back up a view though. An ensemble pack that shows 60% support for a run that is a different story. It’s important not to get caught up in one run out of about 200 over several models. That’s the key point I’m trying to make. If you look at all available means for the 15th to the 22nd does mild or cold have the most evidence to support it?
  4. It’s a case of looking at its emsembles again vs ensembles for all the other models (which are out and very good) and if the gfs ensembles again show little support it’s just another run in an atmosphere that has a shed load of things going off. Like you say onto tomorrows runs now
  5. I’ve never said it won’t turn mild after the 22nd LRD I’ve been focused on a pattern change to snow and cold from the 15th which is now coming into the semi reliable. 15th to the 22nd has been a big win for those who use gdsm products to predict this some 3 weeks ago. The 22nd is all to play for but we do have support from the met office. This week is a watching brief. Like I say all to sort out is severity and longevity
  6. Oh I agree this morning I posted that a cold spell with some snow was nailed on and that the only thing to sort out was how severe and how long. That’s the bit now coming into the reliable timeframe but I certainly feel confident considering the 60-75% ensemble support depending on if you look at GEM or EPS ensembles that some of the horror runs showing one day of cold and transitional snow is highly unlikely
  7. 100% yeah this is all emotions and past disappointments scewing proper analysis of what’s going on. All the available data points in the right direction bar like you say the odd run. Incidentally this icon looks a great run it’s the first one to pull away from a trend of west based -nao and another step towards the nirvana charts shown a week ago look at heights rebuilding up the eastern seaboard like they were forecast to do before
  8. It’s taken me 3 years to get my head around gdsm products but once you’ve got it you’ve got it! For 9 months straight I’ve been able to forecast 2 or 3 weeks ahead and get the macro pattern correct so it’s an important bit of learning if you have any questions on anything you don’t understand your free to pm me and I’m sure Tamara wouldn’t mind either as she helped @Met4Cast to get a fantastic understand of this newish science as well. It’s a learning forum after all! Inclusive to all backgrounds
  9. It has to be said that the met are very bullish about heights to the north west holding on. Especially when there is no sign of this on any of the models for between the 24th and 6th of February. Are they thinking when the cold sets in it will be harder to shift than the models are letting out? It wouldn’t be the last time this happened
  10. Yeah I understand this. However the atmospheric set up that gave clues to this spell 22 days ago looking back at when I first posted about you could argue should still be followed with consistency as it’s looking ever likely that the gdsm products used have been very helpful this time so I’ll stick to a certain level of confidence again and if it goes wrong as ever look and work out where and why for next time.
  11. Yea for uk standards that’s a more than reasonable winter! I’d be happy with one big snowstorm and disruption and a second helping in February. The rest of winter can do what it wants then!
  12. Cluster 3 is my best guess. Battleground with cold just winning out then high pressure pushing north and east through the uk into scandi with us keeping any snow and cold within that high pressure a best case scenario. Alternatively we go milder for a week before cold again
  13. Agreed it’s been a throughly interesting winter to see unfold and perfect for any of us trying to learn. Still waiting for that first op to show signs of a height rise into scandi or Iceland but we are miles away yet still
  14. If we got cold weather and snow 15th to the 23rd I’d be over the moon with that especially as February looks interesting if not more interesting with angular momentum on the rise again from a much higher base state and further weakening if not ssw higher up!
  15. I have to say i have that same feeling of being on the right lines this year seeing things play out it’s really reassuring! I can’t wait for next week!
  16. You can make a guess based on odds tho if it’s 80/20 in favour of other models.
  17. It’s always been in my bin it’s great for picking up long term trends but it’s positively schizophrenic in the 120-192 phases
  18. And rightfully dismissed the means are spreads eps etc are rock solid. Yet again it’s a reaction to a rubbish gfs run Yep people need to breathe
  19. The mean is fantastic the ensembles are rock solid! What a great day of model watching to come! See you all for the 12z!
  20. Living where you live will always be a lot harder to get cold and snow in. For what it’s worth these low pressures nearly always correct south nearer to time. ill give you the fact the very far south or at risk of being on the wrong side of cold but for everyone else it looks fantastic
  21. Unless people were expecting weeks on end of cold like 1963 people should be happy! A week of cold and snow in this country is a big deal
  22. For me the cold is nailed on snow is nailed on what isn’t is who gets the most snow and for how long will it last. The chances of us in northern England being too mild for snow next week is very slim imo
  23. Doubt from what professionals exactly? I’ve seen no doubt other than the met wording how they always will do a week out
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