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Everything posted by Scott Ingham
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Fantastic post by Tamara highlighting the fact the angular momentum and the gwo phases never really bottomed out which is something we looked for in terms of longevity. If we can stay in a cold pool then the height rises to the east and back west forecast as the next stage to look for look bang on the money. lets see it play out like next week has done from musings 3 weeks ago
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed this is very snowy this ecm run somewhere with cold air still over us at day 9! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree that’s my best cast only because historically I’ve seen so many of these track further south -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hahahah sounds like a plan Stew! For longevity I agree but as far as snow is concerned it’s fantastic! And next week is still on course for a cold and snowy spell -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Really appreciated Ben! Thanks mate I’d understand it if I was the met office or something but I’m an amateur finding my way!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
How do I block on here? I’m trying now -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks again for the kind words mate I also enjoy your content btw you’ve brought something good to this forum this year -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mark thank you I just have a lot that goes on in the background in my life and this hobby is supposed to be an escape and an opportunity to learn something and then you get personally attacked …… -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I really appreciate that thank you mate! That’s cheered me up a bit I did think there was a little jealousy involved but I don’t wanna stir owt else up. I’ve pm’d who I need to. Again thanks for the kind words -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I didn’t get the Scott Ingham day full stop I found it a little embarrassing as I’m just a weather enthusiast tbh Phil! But if a forecast comes off why would you not be enthusiastic about it when you’re learning. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Makes sense from a tropical perspective mate as well. An AAM surge and quick move towards phase 6 of the MJO would make sure of this but tbh it looks and feels 10 days too early for me and so it’s messing up with the current pattern -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah how often do we see model chaos once a new signal is picked up and rushed through? It happens a lot! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah it is! It’s something we discussed I think a week ago with input also from Tamara Catacol and Met4cast. I won’t let anyone drive me away mate. My input is all about 2 or 3 weeks down the line and I’m being called arrogant because of a running joke about Scott Ingham day on the 15th I’ve made more bad calls than good just like everyone else that is amateur and I may seem excited about things playing out but what some people don’t understand is when for 3 years you’ve been learning and perfecting a science and just one run follows a script that you had in your head after hours of learning it’s rewarding! Anyway I post for newbies myself and for my own learnings and passion for the weather! I genuinely think some just don’t like to see other people get better at something! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This feels like it’s picked up on the next stage of travel into Scandi and has rushed through the outcomes forgetting we’ve got a large blocking high in Greenland! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s tempting mate! I will just post in the regionals I think tbh from now on -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well that’s your opinion and time will tell but for me looking at everything from all models and signals I’m confident for next week -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I haven’t claimed anything of the sort like that I’m an amateur forecaster who’s managed to guess a date 3 weeks in advance that would go wrong usually 99/100 times. Your educated guess is exactly what I’ve done so I don’t know where your getting this from tbh? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Scott Ingham replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An op run is one run out of a lot of runs. No disrespect but unless you see a trend in the ensembles for a mild outcome then it hasn’t really gained traction. In the last 48 hours we’re talking about 1 model in 4 showing a crap run depending on it being 0z 6z 12z 18z and this is perfectly normal in the lead up to a complicated cold pattern. The point I’m making is yeah discuss it if you want but it’s not really strong enough evidence to suggest we have a trend. That’s misleading. Im a balanced poster if I saw big swings in the ensembles I’d call them out myself. Anyway everyone has a different way of doing things I’m just trying to help newbies out as forecasting not taking means and ensembles into account is for me a mistake looking forward