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Scott Ingham

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Scott Ingham

     Mark Bayley Yeah! I’m 1 degrees colder than forecast and 0.8 degrees colder dew points. It always seems to be like this every day unless my weather model is rubbish haha!

    Oh and I definitely wouldn’t turn down March 18! That was a nice spell here in Rotherham!

     winterof79 Personally I think we have no chance of avoiding the melt Thursday night but it we can stretch out an extra 3-5 hours it will definitely make a difference to the totals I guess!

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

     Cheese Rice My own opinion is we will literally JUST be on the right side of cold due to models always taking temperatures and 1-3 degrees higher than normal (this being a bias in forecasting bloated dew points) taking that in to account in a finely balanced situation is where my thinking comes from. But come 10am tomorrow observations of the cold and DP’s will be the over riding factor. The fact the met are on board for a moderate covering is another plus and another example of experienced forecasters adding human input in and not taking the models completely at face value. 

    Lets keep our fingers crossed we at least get to see a covering and after that there’s plenty of winter left with the SSW about to make the end of February and start of march interesting for a final hurrah in what’s been a close but no cigar winter and bad luck considering so much has been in our favour in regards to many climate drivers 

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Scott Ingham

     Mark Bayley you’ll have a covering of 2-5cms that will melt Friday morning.

    Be enough to get out in it for an hour or 2 however! Better than a kick in the teeth!

     Cheese Rice that’s snow in Sheffield, Rotherham and Barnsley though.

    The arpege and WRF are showing widespread 2-5cms on low ground and these models I’d always have confidence in. The UKV can be a little under done on snow amounts and snow lines

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

     reef it’s between 12 and 5 that snow is forecast for South Yorkshire. 6pm that is about right. It’s not forecast to stay as snow on the ground it’s forecast to melt Thursday night. Have you got frames for 12/2/4?

     cheese It’s going to be a day of settling snow for most apart from the East turning to rain in the evening. It will just be nice to see some snow settle on the ground for a few hours I guess!

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

     mike57 yeah you’ll be too far east and too low down to see settling snow id imagine. Areas in South Yorkshire look the sweet spot. With 15-25cm over the Pennines. Low levels will see settling snow still with 2-5cm by 4pm and a slow thaw in the late evening by the looks! Shame as it will be too dark to enjoy a sledge in the day by the time there’s enough snow on the ground I’d imagine!

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Scott Ingham

    I’ve seen these set ups time and again and the wrf high res model is the one to watch. East of the Pennines I.e Sheffield I feel will do well. Even low levels I’d be very surprised if 2-5cms isn’t hit with ground above 200meters comfortably in the 5-10cms mark. I’ve been told by a little birds the met office are being conservative due to the propensity for the front not to be as heavy as predicted but looking at the models there’s a comfortable 4 hour window of heavy precipitation which due to evaporative cooling should easily tip the belt in low altitude snow chances. Also interestingly the wrf extends conditions well into Friday supportive of snow. Won’t take much to get a second day of winter weather. Enjoy folks!

    Another model underneath the arpege which usually does well in this situations shows 40cms in the Pennines and 10-20cm in areas above 200meters! It’s all upgraded today I’ll keep a beefy eye on tomorrow mornings update 

     

    IMG_0198.png

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

     Empire Of Snow I have to disagree here I think there’s a small chance of a covering above 200metrea Tuesday and a 5-10 quite widely on Thursday into Friday. It’s whether we keep hold of this and beyond the weekend rather than for 12-24hours atm but those hi res mods will soon be in range! Met seem pretty bullish on disruptive snowfall Thursday into the weekend on our parts

    • Like 2

    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    I can only see the signal accelerating, similar to how the zonal spell got brought forward.

    Doesn't mean the orientation will give us deep cold straight away, but it will definitely be an option at least.

    Maybe a holding pattern of chilly weather in the final days of January, followed by something more substantial into the first week of February?

    We’re at a decent base state in GWO already. For me because of that once we get a boost in AAM from the +FT and +MT it could be enough poleward momentum to create high lat blocking but in Iceland/Scandi where both the Strat and Trop look better places for a high lat block to set up. The last piece in the budget jigsaw will be the MJO on the 30th of Jan. This will do two things. Strengthen northern blocking and act as a retrogressive signal to Greenland around the 10th with lag. There is a scenario where without the MJO we don’t see enough rise in +AAM and we go with a mid lat block around the UK then retrogressing to Greenland. For me they are the two scenarios on the table. A quicker and longer lasting spell or one that starts around the 10th from Greenland after a UK high


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5015930
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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    I can only see the signal accelerating, similar to how the zonal spell got brought forward.

    Doesn't mean the orientation will give us deep cold straight away, but it will definitely be an option at least.

    Maybe a holding pattern of chilly weather in the final days of January, followed by something more substantial into the first week of February?

    We’re at a decent base state in GWO already. For me because of that once we get a boost in AAM from the +FT and +MT it could be enough poleward momentum to create high lat blocking but in Iceland/Scandi where both the Strat and Trop look better places for a high lat block to set up. The last piece in the budget jigsaw will be the MJO on the 30th of Jan. This will do two things. Strengthen northern blocking and act as a retrogressive signal to Greenland around the 10th with lag. There is a scenario where without the MJO we don’t see enough rise in +AAM and we go with a mid lat block around the UK then retrogressing to Greenland. For me they are the two scenarios on the table. A quicker and longer lasting spell or one that starts around the 10th from Greenland after a UK high

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    10-14 Feb at earliest, could have a lot of HP ‘domination’ in Feb prior.  Can’t see a cold signal appearing before then

     BFTP

    Really? That’s feels a little late as far as the change to +AAM is concerned but if the new momentum cycle has a weak +FT and +EAMT then that scenario might play out as we don’t hit MJO phase 7 until the end of the month with a 10 day lag there after. I see scandi end of month and Greenland second week in Feb

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    Just to clarify. I'm not saying the start of any cold spell on the 25th. Rather more ridging by this date than what is being modelled at the moment - This then leading to a more rapid decent into cold. 

    Yeah I thought that’s what you meant my own opinion is similar to yours ridging 25th leading to easterly winds by the 29th or a day or 2 after. All said and done if the broad evolution came off I couldn’t care less if the dates are before or after. The satisfaction comes from seeing the pattern play out so you know that you’re moving in the right direction as far as knowledge is concerned and interpreting the signals correctly and if not then not. Where did we go wrong and what can we learn from it for next time.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I will add a bit of a curve ball to this. It could well be the ensembles in particular are underestimating the start of the amplification in around 9 days time - that's the 25th Jan. I say this because we have the gfs op and control and also the ecm control smelling the amplification route significantly today. It could well be one of those great ocassions when, if anything, the momentum could speed up and things brought forward a day or two. Quite the opposite to the present cold spell where the chase seemed to go on forever. 

    Yeah that’s also an option, models won’t have a grasp on this period, won’t have a full grasp on the momentum budget and consequently the level of poleward amplification. The next 5 days are a watching brief. Better to know we have a ticket to the raffle than no ticket at all. It will be another interesting period of model watching to come. As of now the evidence points to Febs analysis on dates but it doesn’t mean it’s right yet we’ll just have to watch for the trends and ensembles around the 25th as you suggest

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Scott Ingham

    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    With you all the way but think 29th a little early, looks to me based on the ens suites it will have a go at scandi around 29th, not quite make it but retrogression to Griceland around 5th feb

    It could very well be early mate in all honesty. The date is just an educated guess that has more chance of being wrong than right for the start of a pattern change to one conducive to high lat blocking near scandi or Iceland. I do feel fairly confident of us being in a favourable pattern however by mid Feb at the very latest. Your opinion based on the ens suites at this moment in time is well founded. Evidence would suggest at this moment in time that your timings are more likely to be correct pal

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