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Scott Ingham

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Everything posted by Scott Ingham

  1. I certainly wouldnt be calling off snow chances thursday yet its on a knife edge. It is about 60/40 in term of no snow but we were at this point before we got battered last time
  2. We know of the propensity for models to over do lows. So a toned down version a little east with those thicknesses has potential. What happens after though looks very interesting for us. Someone will get a lot of snow but anywhere from the southern midlands to scotland is my best bet. Id rule out the far south i feel iberian heights will see to that. Naturally lows barreling south east are often followed by heaight rises in scandi too and the next strat journey is looking for the vortex over canada leaving a vaccum for this. So battleground working further west with a
  3. The outlook from the met was updated today at 4pm and it sounds very good withe central and northern areas expected to have wintry hazards till the middle of Febraury. I think they see a similar pattern to whats been shown on the 12z but further south for the majority of the period
  4. This run is a lot better than runs the past 24 hours. The pattern is pushed south we stay on the right side of the jet and someone in the country would get snow and a decent amount of it with this set up with areas being up for debate this far out. Fits with the metoffice wording for this period. It looks an interesting period coming up and one set to test how imby we all are as im sure the boundary between cold and warm will move up and down as we get closer
  5. This run is extremely good for us! Cold air pushed south and systems pushing into the uk as shallow features from the west Big upgrade from this morning
  6. Another low that shows the complexities of snowfall. This is brought about by the extremely low thicknesses! (The purple on the geopotential 500hpa charts for anyone not sure) Could do with the low being a little bit further east to avoid the winds mixing air and increasing the impact of evaporative cooling but this is the next chance for us i feel.
  7. A long long way away but the system on both the ukmo and GFS could be bothersome. Potential there for high impactful winds and east coast storm surges and if pushed a tad further east to miss the worst of the winds the very low heights could be a snow machine for some.
  8. Flooding is a real possibilty for the region to the start of next week, with those in the pennines and west of the region in for a foul spell of weather. Further down the line there is potential for yorkshire to receive high impact snowfall dependant on the line between the warm and cold air. Its going to be a very imby spell of weather so be careful to work out where someone lives before making a judgement on what we would get. A bad run for the south coast doesnt mean a bad run for us so my own advice would be to stick to regionals and not get caught up in emotion in the mod thread
  9. Ive been asked to post this as an assesment for tonights/tomorrows snow prospects for the UK I suspect the volatile 850 0C / 1C isotherms are causing some headaches tomorrow for the Met.. largely a brief period of low level light snow producing 0-15mm locally below 150 for the central slice before less favourable adiabatic conditions >> sleet below 350m with evap cooling lead localized heavy wet snow for Yorks, Derbs, Notts & east mids even to 100ft locally. Favourable cold pooling east of the A1 into Lincs & Peterborough east will allow for wholescale conducive conditions 5
  10. Its a joke. Then a few cms tomorrow gets about 25 posts that should be in the regional thread allowed on there. Double standards due to combination bias. Im sticking to the regionals its off putting
  11. Yeah surprisingly so! I just dont see it myself but id love to be surprised. Weve been surprised for the better this winter already!
  12. I hope conditions are underestimated mate and short term forecasting isnt really my area but my own personal opinion is we need a big slow down of this front to come into play @Kasim Awan is really your man on this.
  13. It will help the further east you are for sure meaning less altitude needed but even lincolnshire will receive snow turning to rain later in the morning. Only the south east look likely to be hit by snow that doesnt melt in my opinion. I wouldnt be getting overly excited. Dont forget btw im a snow lover but im not a fantasist when i call it i call it even against the majority which happened wednesday/thursday but equally if i feel somethings a bust ill say that. I hope you get battered but i feel youll receive 1-3cm for it to be washed away straight after
  14. Ive been nowehere mate and been very careful. The only time i could catch it the second time was a few days prior to christmas day and symptoms started from then on the 30th. Its rare to catch it a second time but we are into the thousands now for reinfection according to my doctor. Makes you wonder what we do actually know about it and if were jumping too quick thinking vaccinations will be as affective as they think
  15. Sorry guys i had covid 2 weeks ago and ive felt shattered all day! Looking at the 12z i see this as a higher ground event above 250 metres. Surface cold will definitely help lower levels for the first half hour to an hour of precipitation until mixing of the air increasingly turns snow to sleet and then rain in our location. Areas in North Yorkshire may see a small covering above 150m until this turns to rain. This is an event for the south east as mixing will happen much slower along with slacker air helping with evaporative cooling to allow a substantial fall with these areas
  16. Your welcome! Were all here to see snow all said and done and forecasting is part of the fun! To echo what you said what a great day!
  17. Lee thats appreciated mate its been a fun day! Miles better in the regional thread wi the yorkie boys!!
  18. Your welcome mate the day panned out beyond what we all could imagine in the end! Im glad youve got those two things off your mind mate! What better way to start 2021! Hopefully its the first of many good snow events before spring!!
  19. I hope so pal but as summer blizzard said its a different set up. Normally wed need heights to our north east and more of a slide from this type of outcome but with embedded cold and a push south and west its possile to see a period of snow and for it to drop south before the milder air comes in temporarily. Weve benefitted from 2 n a half weeks of homegrown cold in the east this winter which has meant the wet bulb temperatures and recently dps have been on the right side which is half of the battle won!
  20. Thanks mate well get more wrong than right but got this one kind of right cos i expected maximum 5cm to lower ground so way underestimates but agree on met office. I think they didnt expect both the intensity and organisation of the rainfall and left evaporative cooling out of the forecast
  21. Thats a confident met update mate! I have to admit to not sharing that confidence this time but were easily in an envelope of westerly corrections
  22. I dont think far off at all no mate. I have -5 in an urban area like mine. I can certainly imagine higher routes getting to that. Ive looked in detail for saturday and i think 30 miles from the coast and maybe east anglia for snow but for our area yet again im in agreement. Front edge turning to freezing rain turning to rain. Today got pushed a long way west from 54 hours to 12 though so i guess im prepared to give it till tomorrows 12z and then ill make a forecast and post it on here
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