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Scott Ingham

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Everything posted by Scott Ingham

  1. Mark Bayley Yeah! I’m 1 degrees colder than forecast and 0.8 degrees colder dew points. It always seems to be like this every day unless my weather model is rubbish haha! Oh and I definitely wouldn’t turn down March 18! That was a nice spell here in Rotherham! winterof79 Personally I think we have no chance of avoiding the melt Thursday night but it we can stretch out an extra 3-5 hours it will definitely make a difference to the totals I guess!
  2. Mark Bayley you can minus 1-2 off of the models usually pal from experience putting many areas just the right side of marginal. If you have a weather station it will be all about observations at 10 am I’d say to see how close or not some of the models are
  3. Cheese Rice My own opinion is we will literally JUST be on the right side of cold due to models always taking temperatures and 1-3 degrees higher than normal (this being a bias in forecasting bloated dew points) taking that in to account in a finely balanced situation is where my thinking comes from. But come 10am tomorrow observations of the cold and DP’s will be the over riding factor. The fact the met are on board for a moderate covering is another plus and another example of experienced forecasters adding human input in and not taking the models completely at face value. Lets keep our fingers crossed we at least get to see a covering and after that there’s plenty of winter left with the SSW about to make the end of February and start of march interesting for a final hurrah in what’s been a close but no cigar winter and bad luck considering so much has been in our favour in regards to many climate drivers
  4. cheese fair enough buddy each to their own! I love snow no matter the amount or how long you t lasts personally! In a warming world I take what I can get
  5. Mark Bayley you’ll have a covering of 2-5cms that will melt Friday morning. Be enough to get out in it for an hour or 2 however! Better than a kick in the teeth! Cheese Rice that’s snow in Sheffield, Rotherham and Barnsley though. The arpege and WRF are showing widespread 2-5cms on low ground and these models I’d always have confidence in. The UKV can be a little under done on snow amounts and snow lines
  6. winterof79 thanks mate. Yeah as I suspected a period of heavy snow for a wide area of west and South Yorkshire before turning to sleet and finally rain early Friday morning. Will just be nice to see it falling out of the sky I suppose!
  7. sebastiaan1973 ahhh thanks for that Seb it’s saved me some time! So a later ssw but possibly a qtr this year compared… interesting!
  8. feb1991blizzard I’ll have a look I’m just trying to work out if we’ll have the right conditions earlier or later than 2018 which obviously will make a difference in times of increased solar interference. I suspect this year will be a much quicker down well however as the atmosphere appears far more coupled than 2018
  9. feb1991blizzard yep! That’s also my opinion! The best since the 2018 split! What date did the split happen in 2018? I can’t remember!
  10. reef it’s between 12 and 5 that snow is forecast for South Yorkshire. 6pm that is about right. It’s not forecast to stay as snow on the ground it’s forecast to melt Thursday night. Have you got frames for 12/2/4? cheese It’s going to be a day of settling snow for most apart from the East turning to rain in the evening. It will just be nice to see some snow settle on the ground for a few hours I guess!
  11. feb1991blizzard That split is close to perfect with the right balance of energy to stop a west based -NAO and enough cold to head west from Eastern Europe! This Strat run has me tentatively out of hibernation!
  12. LeeSnowFan I think you’d meet up okay at that time but the roads and public transport would be a pain on the way back I’d imagine! Friday looks doable however tho it will just be wet!
  13. LeeSnowFan 2-5cms mate but it will all be gone Friday dinner time. I just want it to settle nice and early to get out in it while we can
  14. mike57 yeah you’ll be too far east and too low down to see settling snow id imagine. Areas in South Yorkshire look the sweet spot. With 15-25cm over the Pennines. Low levels will see settling snow still with 2-5cm by 4pm and a slow thaw in the late evening by the looks! Shame as it will be too dark to enjoy a sledge in the day by the time there’s enough snow on the ground I’d imagine!
  15. Arpege 18z and another significant upgrade with settling snow much further East and the cold air yet again lasting much longer than was forecast! Side by side as proof below. It’s starting to look a decent snowfall this!
  16. I’ve seen these set ups time and again and the wrf high res model is the one to watch. East of the Pennines I.e Sheffield I feel will do well. Even low levels I’d be very surprised if 2-5cms isn’t hit with ground above 200meters comfortably in the 5-10cms mark. I’ve been told by a little birds the met office are being conservative due to the propensity for the front not to be as heavy as predicted but looking at the models there’s a comfortable 4 hour window of heavy precipitation which due to evaporative cooling should easily tip the belt in low altitude snow chances. Also interestingly the wrf extends conditions well into Friday supportive of snow. Won’t take much to get a second day of winter weather. Enjoy folks! Another model underneath the arpege which usually does well in this situations shows 40cms in the Pennines and 10-20cm in areas above 200meters! It’s all upgraded today I’ll keep a beefy eye on tomorrow mornings update
  17. Empire Of Snow I have to disagree here I think there’s a small chance of a covering above 200metrea Tuesday and a 5-10 quite widely on Thursday into Friday. It’s whether we keep hold of this and beyond the weekend rather than for 12-24hours atm but those hi res mods will soon be in range! Met seem pretty bullish on disruptive snowfall Thursday into the weekend on our parts
  18. We’re at a decent base state in GWO already. For me because of that once we get a boost in AAM from the +FT and +MT it could be enough poleward momentum to create high lat blocking but in Iceland/Scandi where both the Strat and Trop look better places for a high lat block to set up. The last piece in the budget jigsaw will be the MJO on the 30th of Jan. This will do two things. Strengthen northern blocking and act as a retrogressive signal to Greenland around the 10th with lag. There is a scenario where without the MJO we don’t see enough rise in +AAM and we go with a mid lat block around the UK then retrogressing to Greenland. For me they are the two scenarios on the table. A quicker and longer lasting spell or one that starts around the 10th from Greenland after a UK high Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5015930
  19. We’re at a decent base state in GWO already. For me because of that once we get a boost in AAM from the +FT and +MT it could be enough poleward momentum to create high lat blocking but in Iceland/Scandi where both the Strat and Trop look better places for a high lat block to set up. The last piece in the budget jigsaw will be the MJO on the 30th of Jan. This will do two things. Strengthen northern blocking and act as a retrogressive signal to Greenland around the 10th with lag. There is a scenario where without the MJO we don’t see enough rise in +AAM and we go with a mid lat block around the UK then retrogressing to Greenland. For me they are the two scenarios on the table. A quicker and longer lasting spell or one that starts around the 10th from Greenland after a UK high
  20. Really? That’s feels a little late as far as the change to +AAM is concerned but if the new momentum cycle has a weak +FT and +EAMT then that scenario might play out as we don’t hit MJO phase 7 until the end of the month with a 10 day lag there after. I see scandi end of month and Greenland second week in Feb
  21. Absolutely! Will stop this winter from being one of “Great Potential and Disappointing Achievement!!” sounds like one of my old school reports…..
  22. Yeah I thought that’s what you meant my own opinion is similar to yours ridging 25th leading to easterly winds by the 29th or a day or 2 after. All said and done if the broad evolution came off I couldn’t care less if the dates are before or after. The satisfaction comes from seeing the pattern play out so you know that you’re moving in the right direction as far as knowledge is concerned and interpreting the signals correctly and if not then not. Where did we go wrong and what can we learn from it for next time.
  23. Yeah that’s also an option, models won’t have a grasp on this period, won’t have a full grasp on the momentum budget and consequently the level of poleward amplification. The next 5 days are a watching brief. Better to know we have a ticket to the raffle than no ticket at all. It will be another interesting period of model watching to come. As of now the evidence points to Febs analysis on dates but it doesn’t mean it’s right yet we’ll just have to watch for the trends and ensembles around the 25th as you suggest
  24. It could very well be early mate in all honesty. The date is just an educated guess that has more chance of being wrong than right for the start of a pattern change to one conducive to high lat blocking near scandi or Iceland. I do feel fairly confident of us being in a favourable pattern however by mid Feb at the very latest. Your opinion based on the ens suites at this moment in time is well founded. Evidence would suggest at this moment in time that your timings are more likely to be correct pal
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