Valleyboy

Might be ok, that low would correct south, so would end up a snow event for some.

This is the point I am making. A direct northerly will be modified temps wise. We need the shorted sea crossing, so a polar continental feed is much better, as was December 2010 and December 1981. Those months were mainly continental feed, which is what I am hoping any northerly will end up turning into.

There’s nothing to ramp if it is a northerly, as it’ll be a damp squib. We need to look east for real wintry weather. Hopefully, any northerly will back north east, east.

The problem is, it won’t be substantially colder from the north. Too much sea to cross which will modify temperatures. We really need cold pools developing from the east. 09/10 was mostly continental cold, not northerlies.

You really don’t get northerly beasts! It just doesn’t happen.

No northerlies please, they only look good on paper. On the ground, very little to excite us, especially in the south. I’ll put up with northerlies, providing they eventually back northeast / east.

Yes, but too much over analysis on every single run is tiresome. Many in this forum will know that 10 days out isn’t worth worrying about, but memories are short. Best to look at the overall trend and pattern being shown, which in the current case is very good for coldies.

Depends on the wind direction really. Winds north of east will bring plenty of snow showers across the country. The North Sea will be a big snow making machine this winter.

No. That would be a cold south easterly flow. No mild temperatures there.

Anyone worried about a mild autumn, should look at Autumn 1978.

Think you’ve missed a fair few other winters with long cold spells, both ends of 2010 were extended cold spells and many early 80’s winters had long snowy spells, and not forgetting 1978/79.

Snow only on high ground in the north. There’s just too much moderation with this set up.

The thing is, northerlies are never brutal. It’s a sign of desperation when people wish for northerlies, as they only look good on paper, they never deliver to the bulk of the country.

The first half of winter 1947 was mild, 14c was widely recorded that January.

Really? temps dropping slightly, ok not a cold spell but something colder could evolve from that set up.

All these negative comments are depressing to be honest, No sign of cold, don’t sugar coat it etc. All these comments are based on the assumption that the charts are correct! 7 days prior to Christmas the charts were showing a cold Christmas, even the mainstream weather forecasters were going for at least a predominantly dry Christmas period and look how that turned out! It couldn’t have been more wrong! Charts should always be taken with a large pinch of salt. Also remember that cold outbreaks tend to appear at relatively short notice.

Unfortunately that won’t be cold, not what most are looking for anyway.

That’s what I’m saying John. If the correlation between warm Septembers and the following winters were true, then this theory was completely bust in 78/79 which was the coldest winter since 62/63. Weather doesn’t work like that, it’s too chaotic.

September 1978 was warm, and look what followed!

The cold spells didn’t exist in the first place, the models were just wrong. The world hasn’t warmed that much, and as mentioned previously, most 70’s winters were mild and snowless, so nothing has really changed, apart from one of the coldest Decembers on record in 2010, and more recent March low daytime temperature records broken. We are spoilt today with these models, previously we never new when cold spells were coming until they were imminent.

The margins are not large. There was cross model agreement on a cold spell last week that disappeared quicker than a pint of stellar in my hand! So why are you looking at the same models and taking a mild set up as set in stone? If and when the cold weather wants to advance over the UK, it will just do that!, large margins don’t exist in the weather world, it’s just chaotic and that’s why forecasting has advanced little in the last 40 years.

I wouldn’t dream, with low pressure over Scandinavia, you’ll just pull northerlies travelling over large expanse of water. Worst direction for most. We need a scandi high to bring the continental cold weather all coldies crave.

Really? Wasn’t commenting in relation to any upcoming cold spell, just stating a fact that mild temperatures showing doesn’t mean a cold spell won’t follow. Happens often in the UK.

I wouldn’t be concerned about mild temperatures showing either. It was very mild prior to the 1947 big freeze

If it isn’t showing a scandi high, don’t bother.