mfhblue

There should also be a subtle change in wind direction at the 850hPa level. More of an easterly component might bring a bit more of the region into play as well.

I was watching the same earlier. I think it's due to the slight convergence zone along the northern Dutch cost. I am hoping (not expecting) it might fire a few showers in my direction (NW home counties) later on when the steering winds back more from NE to ENE. As I say, hoping, not expecting at all.

As it passes it looks like drawing in a potent Northerly, potentially sustained IMHO.

This appears to have the trough diving much deeper than other models. Great, if correct.

ECM is getting there, but I am not convinced the trough would dig south into Europe in the same way GFS thinks it will.

I don't think GFS knows what to do next

Only 1 week away. I would take this...

I think the spread of options around the 19/20th has remained consistent for some time now. We just got treated to one of the colder options on the 12z, as opposed to a mild one on the 6z.

The Op was one of the milder options - just saying!

Not without support though...

Hopefully not hyperbole. Those ensembles clearly confirm a blocked pattern to me. Whether blocking is favourable or not for our little island will probably not be resolved for some time. But we are in the game!

Wow!

I am not sure I have even seen charts quite like these before. Look at the size of that High! Something is definitely brewing...

As already said, driver ability, or at least experience driving on snow is key. The obvious one is to slow down and do everything as smoothly as you possible can. Traction is key. If your wheels start to slip through acceleration, cornering, or braking then back-off, regain traction and try again more gently. You should expect to have to correct things frequently like this, so anticipate it and allow plenty of additional space and time. Winter tyres and/or 4WD most certainly help, but they are not a panacea. That is especially true when it comes to braking. All cars have 4 wheel braking so you are no better off in a 4WD, slow down and brake early and gently. Engine braking is essential, particularly if you are going downhill, don't forget that engine braking can still cause the car to slide, particularly if it's a sudden shift. If you drive an automatic make sure you know how to change gears manually, it really is an essential skill on snow. If your wheels start to slip when accelerating, do not step on the gas harder and try to power your way out of it, you'll just end up sliding into the gutter (or if unlucky an oncoming car). Lift off, and try again more gently, perhaps try a higher gear, don't worry about speed, focus on keeping your drive wheels turning without spinning. Be aware of whether you are driving a FWD, RWD, or 4WD car, they all react differently when you lose traction and it helps knowing what to expect. The bottom line though, no matter how capable you are, or your car is, if the road is blocked by other cars you are going nowhere.

It does indeed. I recall posting a chart almost identical to the one below a day or two before last year's "event". A little low forming in the South West and trundling along the channel coast. If I recall correctly, GFS kept toying with the idea and then dropping it again. Could history be about to repeat itself?

And is that a little trough clearing the SE?

I'm starting to see a pleasing shape in these charts....

The temperature dropping at dawn after a still night is something I have observed many times, it has been very noticeable this week. Some mornings here it has dropped around 1.5c in the first half hour or so of daylight. I did a bit of research last night and found an explanation for it. It appears that the first weak rays of sunshine in the morning warm the ground by a tiny amount, not a significant amount but enough to cause a little bit of convection and mixing of the air at the ground with the air just above it. Hence the even colder air at ground level is mixed with the air just above it which causes the air temperature at the height it is measured (around 2m) to fall.

This might not exactly answer the question why frost forms on grass at sunrise, but it is an interesting (and possibly connected) phenomena. I am sure many have noticed after a cold night how the temperature often falls a bit further at sunrise. The last two mornings this has been really noticeable on my weather station. It was already extremely cold at dawn but the temperature fell quickly by another 1-2c in the next half hour both mornings. I did a bit of research earlier and found an explanation for this. As I am sure we all know, on a still night the temperature is often colder at ground level than the temperature at 2m (the typical height at which it is measured), hence you can have a ground frost when the air temp is above 0c. It seems that the first weak rays of sunshine in the morning warm the ground by a tiny amount, just enough to cause a little bit of convection and mixing of the air at the surface with the air just above. Hence the very cold air at ground level is mixed with the air just above it causing the measured air temperature to fall at 2m level. Maybe the phenomena are connected in some way and someone more qualified can explain. I am thinking possibly something to do with some of the dew evaporating as part of this micro-scale convection process, and in turn causing a cooling of the remaining dew on the grass.

Lovely, this spell of weather is reminding me a lot of the winters of Yore!

We just hit -12.0c, the coldest I have ever recorded in the 7-8 years I have had a weather station!

And now it's -9.3c! I've seen the temp drop before a few tenths as the sun rises but I don't recall it dropping this much. We seem to be in small pocket of very cold air close to the bottom of the Chilterns.

Scratch that. Even though it's light in the last 10 mins the mist is rolling in and the temp has dropped further to -8.8c!

Properly cold one this morning, -8.2c

It's also not helped by the lack of ability to drive on snow in this country, e.g. don't jump on the brakes or try to accelerate harder when you start losing traction. I suspect the increased numbers of RWD automatics has not helped either, as far as I know they all have a manual mode but I suspect most people don't know how or when to use it.