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    Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border

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  1. Sunny and warm here too, and yet Shefali just before 7pm on Midlands today was wearing a thick Winter coat. I was still pottering about in the garden at 9pm in a t-shirt because it felt warm. It's 13°C here outdoors and 23°C indoors.
  2. This Winter did not go wrong. What did go wrong was people trying to predict the weather more than 7-days in advance, which is always mostly pie in the sky theories. Too many people hanging on to the long range Metoffice forecast, bellieving it to be gospel. SSW does not guarantee a cold spell. I experienced three snow events this winter, but they were only short term one day events, and probably only only because my job involves travel throughout the UK. But I am happy I have seen snow this winter. We are constantly reminded about global warming, so we are really lucky to see snow at all in the UK.
  3. Winter must be over now. Only the die hards still think there is hope of a proper cold spell. I have seen snow twice these last few weeks of winter, and that is good enough for me, even if it was less than an inch. The metoffice say the next 10 years will be the warmest in history, so on that note, roll on summer.
  4. Just as many members below and above freezing from day 6. It could go either way.
  5. No sign of any serious cold weather yet. Cold yes, but nothing out the ordinary.
  6. It can take weeks for SSW to take effect. Maybe 52! There is no guarantee of snow though. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming
  7. It's model and banter, as per the thread title. Correct
  8. I can remember the models showing solid snow events in 24/48 hours, and then completely going off track to be a non-event. When it comes to snow, nowcasting (look out the window!), is sometimes more accurate than forecasts or model watching, when it looks marginal.
  9. GFS and ECM more or less agree up to T240. At present no real cold on offer, and the Atlantic seems fired up, to give us Low after Low, and no sign of any blocking. A chance of some marginal and brief snow events GEFS ensembles long term outlook heading for milder temperatures, but that can of course change.
  10. It's the same every Winter. It never pays to get carried away by one run, especially when any possible decent snow event was 9-days away! Even if the charts are showing snow at T+24, you can't be sure it will actually happen. Plus the usual comments that the charts must be wrong, as they don't show what you want.
  11. Haha. It's too easy to get carried away with believing the snowmageddon posts on the MO thread.
  12. Nothing in the current charts convinces me of there being any sustained proper cold period, let alone snow. We are at least a week or two away from the models getting to grips with what is left of winter.
  13. High pressure seems to dominate on this 12z run in the reliable time frame giving us lots of mostly dry weather.
  14. The hopecasters hope for snow, but unless you work for the newspapapers it's looks unlikely in January for most of us. PS. SSW = South South Westerly, and nothing to do with the Stratosphere. Hopecasting continues, driving home from Christmas in their Fiat 500. (Clogging up the roads)
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