03jtrickey

So close...but probably no cigar here in Oxford! I did hear a rumble though which made me check the radar...

There was lightning and a clap of thunder in Oxford a few hours ago. The cell at 7:35pm.

Well it certainly wasn't 2cm in diameter! But looking at a ruler, it was probably more like 4-5mm in diameter. It wasn't so much the size of the hail as the intensity of it that was impressive.

Was out cycling on Brill Hill, near Oxford. Three big forks of lightning in the distance behind a dramatic shelf cloud. 15 minutes later, torrential rain turning to thick 2mm diameter hail. A few close lightning strikes and thunder. It was a very wet, but enjoyable experience!

Still waiting for a proper thunderstorm! I'm back in Oxford now but think the fairly electrified one nearby is going to pass just too far south!

Fairly heavy hail here in Cheltenham

A good inch of snow in Oxford

Yes, quite a significant shift east - more promising for Oxfordshire!

Slightly disappointed that it's now raining in Oxford. We have about an inch and a half ... maybe two inches of snow outside. Now just hoping the front clears quickly so that some of it lasts until morning!

Ahhh...being at uni has its downsides... I'm amazed to hear of snow in Cheltenham today! I just saw a Facebook status about people struggling to get up Cleeve Hill in the snow and did a double take. Very localised. This pic on twitter too: http://yfrog.com/od73isij

That was the 0Z run - it hasn't updated yet

Thanks GP, this is really helpful.

Thank you for your insightful post GP. I am fairly new to these teleconnections and have a few questions about the MJO analogues. As I understand it, the first chart I have quoted is the anomaly for the first half of this month, and the second is the average anomaly for years with similar MJO conditions, the match demonstrating the predictive power of the MJO. But what I don't understand is how the MJO is 'rolled forward' to create the third chart. Is this based on model predictions for the MJO state, which are then used to create composite anomalies based on Januaries with MJO phases similar to those forecast for January? Or are they simply based on 'what happened before' i.e. taking years with similar to present MJO conditions and plotting the average of what subsequently happened?

Snowing heavily around junction 19-20 of the M25 http://www.bbc.co.uk/travelnews/london/trafficcameras/highwaysagency/55166/image?enabled=1&asset=55166.jpg&epoch=1324026600&region=london&cachebuster=cb1324026719173

I cycled back from Cheltenham to Oxford yesterday and experienced much the same sort of thing! I couldn't feel my feet by the time I got back... it started off raining as I went up Leckhampton Hill, then turned sleety around Yanworth. Near Northleach there was then heavy wet snow for a time, before it brightened up and then sleeted until I reached Burford. Sunny until Oxford, but it snowed for a bit when I got back.

Currently heavy rain here in Cheltenham, there have been sporadic bursts of torrential hail and two very loud claps of thunder :-D Completely unexpected as well!

The Glen Ogle gust is the highest I've seen so far but will wait for confirmation from the Met Office (they'll probably post a more definitive summary of the storm sometime in the next few days). Apologies for the confusion about high level sites, I should have made the boundaries more specific. I wanted to avoid people going for stations that were clearly on the tops of mountains, like Cairngorm and Glen Coe or Snowdon etc. I didn't realise Glen Ogle was so high up (564m), but it is an official Met Office station. Capel Curig is definitely low level. In the interests of fairness I therefore propose two winners, one for guessing the location (likely to be Glen Ogle), and the other for guessing the wind speed value closest to the actual gust

I'm in the countryside just to the west of Gloucester (Taynton) at the moment and it's quite blustery here. Probably an average of 20mph gusting 40 at the moment judging by nearby weather stations and looking outside.

Already an 82mph gust at Capel Curig. Looking at the map, with a southwesterly wind at Capel Curig, the wind will be descending down over Snowdon and getting funnelled along the Nantygwryd valley before reaching the weather station, so it really is in a prime spot for high gusts in these conditions.

Latest GFS 6Z has an extratropical Hurricane Maria gracing our shores into FI...

Trust me to miss out on the 'massive downpour'...just 14 miles away from home and it actually gets some vaguely interesting weather!

Mum just came in: "have you heard about the hurricane on the way?" Ugh, I hate the Express! And the shoddy sensationalist journalism around these events which misleads the general public to believe that the storm will hit the whole country, when it's actually going to affect mainly northern areas...so on Tuesday there'll probably be loads of people moaning that forecasters got it wrong with cries of 'where's the hurricane?' etc . . . http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/270321 They could at least make it very clear that it's not a hurricane any more...but that wouldn't sell papers I suppose...

I've just started a new 'guess the gust' thread here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70966-ex-katia-guess-the-gust/ I remember having these in past years for other storms so decided to start one for Ex Katia

Hi all, I noticed yesterday that there was no 'guess the gust' thread for the upcoming storm, as there have been for past events. So just for fun I thought I'd create one. Simply state which official weather station (ie ones on Met Office or xcweather.co.uk, but no high altitude sites such as Cairngorm etc) you think the highest gust will be recorded at and the maximum wind speed you expect. The 'winner' is the person who guesses the right location AND is closest to the highest recorded wind speed (no prize as such, just the satisfaction of winning unless Netweather is prepared to provide some sort of reward). How it will be judged: If the actual max wind speed lies between two guesses, the person with the higher guess wins. If no-one guesses the right location, then the guess closest to the highest recorded wind speed wins and if multiple people have guessed the same value then the first person to guess this wind speed wins. I will start off with: 104mph in Tiree

Met Office West Highland forecast: "Monday A deep area of low pressure will cross Northern Scotland bringing very unsettled weather. Winds will be up to storm or hurricane force across higher ridges and summits. There will also be spells of rain, heavy at times with extensive hill fog." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mountainsafety/westhighland/westhighland_latest_pressure.html