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03jtrickey

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Interests
    Cycling/walking/the outdoors
    Extreme weather
    Geography
    Choral singing
    Photography
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms and snow

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  1. From my understanding the deterministic forecast (i.e. operational run) calculates one particular outcome/forecast at high resolution based on one set of initial weather conditions (which are estimated based on observations). However, the initial weather conditions can never be perfectly known due to incomplete geographic coverage of weather observation networks and uncertainty in measurements etc. To account for this uncertainty, ensemble predictions are created by running the same model multiple times at a lower resolution using a range of slightly perturbed/adjusted (but still plausible) initial weather conditions as input data. Examining the range of different forecasts that result from the set of slightly different weather conditions gives an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast and allows the deterministic run to be considered in the context of these possible outcomes (e.g. mild outlier etc.). However the deterministic run is still valuable because its higher resolution resolves weather features better, particularly small scale features that may be critical for how a forecast develops.
  2. Could have been me! I've just got back from a cycle ride wih a friend from Oxford. We sheltered in Church Hanborough Church during the thunderstorm - heavy rain, regular thunder and a bit of lightning.
  3. I wonder whether it might backbuild and join up with echoes appearing just west of Winchester
  4. Just seen the Estofex forecast for tomorrow - it'll be just my luck if all hell breaks loose in Peterborough now I'm down in Oxford for the weekend! Level 2 warning out there...
  5. Very impressive and prolonged storm here in Peterborough today, on and off from about 3pm to 445pm. Several very close strikes and some gunshot type thunder. Mostly intercloud lightning. Intense rainfall and hail thrown in too.
  6. I'm currently in Northern France (Arras) and will be crossing the channel by rail tomorrow. Very much looking forward to seeing the effects of this storm and it looks like I may be well placed to witness some intense wind gusts!
  7. Went out cycling from Peterborough this evening - pretty sure I saw a few flashes of lighting in with the heavy rain.
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