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03jtrickey

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    Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
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    Cycling/walking/the outdoors
    Extreme weather
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    Choral singing
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  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms and snow

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  1. 03jtrickey
    From my understanding the deterministic forecast (i.e. operational run) calculates one particular outcome/forecast at high resolution based on one set of initial weather conditions (which are estimated based on observations). However, the initial weather conditions can never be perfectly known due to incomplete geographic coverage of weather observation networks and uncertainty in measurements etc. To account for this uncertainty, ensemble predictions are created by running the same model multiple times at a lower resolution using a range of slightly perturbed/adjusted (but still plausible) initial weather conditions as input data. Examining the range of different forecasts that result from the set of slightly different weather conditions gives an idea of the uncertainty in the forecast and allows the deterministic run to be considered in the context of these possible outcomes (e.g. mild outlier etc.). However the deterministic run is still valuable because its higher resolution resolves weather features better, particularly small scale features that may be critical for how a forecast develops.
  2. 03jtrickey
    Deterministic
  3. 03jtrickey
    Agreed - spectacular storms near Peterborough today. I was out cycling with a friend at the time, near Nassington and it took us by surprise. At one point there were 3 simultaneous CG lightning strikes!
  4. 03jtrickey
    Very loud thunder at work in Pboro earlier. Storm right overhead.
  5. 03jtrickey
    Could have been me! I've just got back from a cycle ride wih a friend from Oxford. We sheltered in Church Hanborough Church during the thunderstorm - heavy rain, regular thunder and a bit of lightning.
  6. 03jtrickey
    Loud thunder in Oxford
  7. 03jtrickey
    Seems to be happening..
  8. 03jtrickey
    I wonder whether it might backbuild and join up with echoes appearing just west of Winchester
  9. 03jtrickey
    Regular lightning to northeast of Oxford!
  10. 03jtrickey
    Just seen the Estofex forecast for tomorrow - it'll be just my luck if all hell breaks loose in Peterborough now I'm down in Oxford for the weekend! Level 2 warning out there...
  11. 03jtrickey
    Thunder in Peterborough
  12. 03jtrickey
    I'm glad to be based in Peterborough on days like this!
  13. 03jtrickey
    Very impressive and prolonged storm here in Peterborough today, on and off from about 3pm to 445pm. Several very close strikes and some gunshot type thunder. Mostly intercloud lightning. Intense rainfall and hail thrown in too.
  14. 03jtrickey
    Impressive footage from Ireland
  15. 03jtrickey
    I'm currently in Northern France (Arras) and will be crossing the channel by rail tomorrow. Very much looking forward to seeing the effects of this storm and it looks like I may be well placed to witness some intense wind gusts!
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