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Gypo

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Posts posted by Gypo

  1. Tomorrows ECM 12z says 'HOLD MY BEER'

    As far as I remember from the charts and as a poster has mentioned above, we were always looking at around the 14th/15th for any real cold spell to materialize once the HP had set in place.

    Flip flopping is something we are used to, just like disappointment, so let's not get ahead of ourselves just in case the usual happens and somehow a more zonal pattern takes hold.

    • Like 2
  2. 13 minutes ago, jmp223 said:

    Hi Mike, is that a vortex split event rather than a displacement?  Just curious as to whether this has any bearing on our chance of cold.  I know 2/3 SSWs lead to colder weather, however I wonder if it is type dependent?  I would assume it is a good thing the warming is on our side-by that I mean to our NE, as opposed to occuring over the Canadian side.  I assume by that the effects would be more pronounced for the UK.

    I'm only really starting to study SSWs and their "teleconnectors" seriously this winter. I found a great document that explains the role Rossby waves play in all of this, everyone can find it here.  I recommend everyone who isn't already an "expert" give it a read 😊

    SKYBRARY.AERO

    Description First discovered in 1952, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) refers to a swift jump in temperatures in the stratosphere that is sometimes linked to the onset of cold weather in...

     

    I am probably wrong but I'm sure displacements lead to greater polar cap warming?

    This looks like a displacement-split, with sister vortices ending up over western Europe/Canada and then Russia/Mongolia/China unless my map readings terrible?

    • Thanks 1
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