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Posts posted by Gypo
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Can we stop with the willy waving contest please and get back to model discussion?
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There's going below 528 and then there's taking the you know what!!
Amazing charts
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Tomorrows ECM 12z says 'HOLD MY BEER'
As far as I remember from the charts and as a poster has mentioned above, we were always looking at around the 14th/15th for any real cold spell to materialize once the HP had set in place.
Flip flopping is something we are used to, just like disappointment, so let's not get ahead of ourselves just in case the usual happens and somehow a more zonal pattern takes hold.
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13 minutes ago, jmp223 said:
Hi Mike, is that a vortex split event rather than a displacement? Just curious as to whether this has any bearing on our chance of cold. I know 2/3 SSWs lead to colder weather, however I wonder if it is type dependent? I would assume it is a good thing the warming is on our side-by that I mean to our NE, as opposed to occuring over the Canadian side. I assume by that the effects would be more pronounced for the UK.
I'm only really starting to study SSWs and their "teleconnectors" seriously this winter. I found a great document that explains the role Rossby waves play in all of this, everyone can find it here. I recommend everyone who isn't already an "expert" give it a read
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) | SKYbrary Aviation Safety
SKYBRARY.AERO
Description First discovered in 1952, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) refers to a swift jump in temperatures in the stratosphere that is sometimes linked to the onset of cold weather in...I am probably wrong but I'm sure displacements lead to greater polar cap warming?
This looks like a displacement-split, with sister vortices ending up over western Europe/Canada and then Russia/Mongolia/China unless my map readings terrible?
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3 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:
Can see some distant CGs over towards the west up by Crewe, pitch black over that way. Unfortunately moving in the wrong direction for me but better than nothing.
Just getting the first rumblings of thunder now to the north between crewe and nantwich
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28c just outside of Crewe, absolutely lovely!
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Drove home from Stoke to Crewe through this amazing storm.
Started with deep black clouds and as I got closer to Crewe it was a sheet of white cloud with intense lightning and hail. Roads started to quickly slow down and flood in places and it was difficult to see at times.
Absolutely loved it
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No point looking at snow charts just quite yet given the current wobble model wise.
UKMO needs to show ECM the light and guide it our way! -
Let's just see what the 12z & 18z have to offer up before we go into meltdown mode.
I know the mornings output wasn't great after such a good run the past few days, but there have been plenty of flips and turns model wise over the years and there will be more.
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1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
You think it's decent run?I guess it's getting there.would prefer the system to the East of us,rather then over us
Make your mind up...good run...bad run..good run.
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Still too early to start placing bets, decent run again but plenty of time for corrections.
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Fascinating model watching currently!
I'm liking the incursion of 850s on the UKMO on Christmas day, GFS pits us with a battleground scenario?
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Pretty much stopped in Weston too now, will be tricky in the morning when it's an ice rink.
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Yikes
The Winking Man | Webcam
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On the boundary in Crewe but so far, so good - it's white and falling.
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7 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
Strongest gusts of the night in the past hour here in S Cheshire howling wind sleety rain and lots of crashing about outside a few flickers of the lights earlier too.
Same just outside of Crewe
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5 mini power cuts in the last 10 minutes just outside of Crewe, winds picked up significantly.
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Winking Man webcam has shown some form of precipitation but it's not clear enough to see what exactly
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Nothing to report from Stoke or Crewe yet!
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32 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
A Facebook friend has put up a video of snow falling in Clun, Shropshire. Says it’s settling on Knighton Road.
Snowing in Ellesmere near Whitchurch too.
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Netweather showing a balmy -9c for 7pm on Wednesday here in the cheshire countryside!