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Weather vane

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    Kildare, Ireland

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  1. You're right, though still a horror show for the snow coldies...
  2. Daffodils by late Dec if these GFS charts verify (little chance prob).
  3. Now, that is a BLOCK to behold on Icon at 180hr. No cold build to our east unfotunately..
  4. Decent day7/8 position for north atlantic blocking across models. Lets hope we see this continue to develop over next few days....
  5. You could well be right. However, as alluded to by other posters, there are multiple solutions to getting cold weather here even in the face of what seems an unfavourable circumstance. Even the heavily sought after greenland blocks, Scandi highs, and SSWs are no guarantee of cold, though of course they greatly increase our chances.
  6. Building Scandi high route to cold weather not playing ball, as charts show it slowing shifting East. Could be replaced by another one building from north central Europe. Lets hope...
  7. I might just print this one out and stick it up on the wall, it's so beautiful. Shane it's deep FI territory.
  8. That HP at 126 hr is in an awful hurry. Moves nearly 1500 miles in 36hrs !!!
  9. As others have said, settled weather is now forecast from migrating Atlantic high, rather than the previously forecasted EU high. In more reliable timeframe of 1 week, too, so looking good for those that love cool, dry and sunny autumnal weather (like me)..
  10. Here"s the 192hr charts (apart ftom Icon which is 180hr). There is effort to build in hp in some, but form horse would be less settled than more settled IMO. (at least in Ireland where I'm based).
  11. Below are the 144hr for Gem, gfs, ecm, icon, ukmo. Cant see how we can get from these to a settled spell for beginning Nov. Atlantic too active and no blocking that could help.
  12. All for optimism, but 8-9 days out is a lot this time of year, esp with a big low possibly barrelling in. I know people diss GFS but I thought Icon has more street cred. Though, like you, I'd love forcthe ECM forecast to come good.
  13. Not sure why there is such optimism for the ECMs warm end of month, which is still 9-10 days away. All models indicating a possobly nasty low in a weeks time, which could essily scupper a subsequent settled spell. GFS, Icon indicate it stays unsettled and cold for months end.
  14. Tend to agree. Whilst so.e green shoots of settled weather are appearing, the Atlantic dominance has been very hard to shift for a lot of this summer. Ground is almost fully saturated here, across the entire island of Ireland. Been a long time since I"ve seen it this bad at end August.
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