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Uncertainty

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Everything posted by Uncertainty

  1. Looks just like the eps NWS. In fact, the members are excellent at 192 and the the long term solution from the op e.g heights transferring to the ne is not w/o support either. What a pub run btw, cold right out to the end…
  2. Great to see a model play with it as an option. Last nights pub run had a look at scandi too. Even earlier on in the run it moved towards the ecm solution; it’s not as simple as a bit of the ridge collapses to Europe and the spell is over. If remnant heights remain to the N and the jet stays well to the south then someone’s going to get pasted. This run is showing us how that could then translate to a much longer spell, even though the ens haven’t really been keen on the idea. Brilliant to have your input on here Scott. It’s an open forum so people are gonna have their own views but don’t let it stop you sharing your knowledge and putting your time and rep on the idea to actually make a forecast. The more high quality posts we get on here, especially ones which offer direction on the future based on evidence - the better the experience is for everyone.
  3. 12zs overall are the best suite yet for longevity. To illustrate, here are some highlights: 1) Ecm produces its best op run for what seems like ages, with a boxed in GH 2) JMA brings a snowstorm to S England 3) GFS Beautiful wedge action 4) GEM, words not required 5) EPS mean, reverses the flattening trend from the last few runs and the anomalies are very good and very reminiscent of the seasonals. Most importantly, the following shift in the eps mean in the extended does not do it justice! It’s one of the bigger ones I’ve seen ant that range. Although the flip from mostly mild swerlies to a dipole blocked/flatter set is still clear. 12z 0z When you look through the members, the flip to ‘longevity’ is quite remarkable. Overall, a poor night for mildies, cockle warmers and gas bills tonight! Their time will come, but this evening is one for the crew…
  4. The mjo moving into P4 more strongly than expected and for longer, as well as the the bigger push of cold into the states is likely responsible for the flattening across the ecm suite today. Need to see a few more 46 runs to really lose faith. Nevertheless, no ssw and the mjo in a poor position is not ideal. Hopefully we can get a gfs 12z style couple of snowstorms in first before the relaxation. After that, plenty of evidence for the blocking to return with continued strat disruption and the mjo moving towards the WP. The 46 has backed off once or twice in the last few weeks and quickly got back in track. But the sooner the mjo gets a move on out of p4 the better.
  5. Massive shift in the geps around 300 hours (17th Jan) 12z 0z The Greenland blocking is far stronger on the 12z, on the 0z it is already being eroded and the tilt of the Atlantic low no longer pumps WAA into Greenland. On the 12z the Atlantic energy is splitting which should prop up the high. Perhaps an even bigger shift on the 12z GEFS compared to its 6z run. The former has an incredible mean Greenland high whereas on the 6z it’s centred over the U.K. 12z 6z Unsurprisingly, both means are significantly colder! Whilst there are still potential barriers to longevity (the gfs op goes from perfection to west based to flat real quick) the upgrades on the means are far more relevant when predicting how long our cold spell will persist for. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4995109
  6. Massive shift in the geps around 300 hours (17th Jan) 12z 0z The Greenland blocking is far stronger on the 12z, on the 0z it is already being eroded and the tilt of the Atlantic low no longer pumps WAA into Greenland. On the 12z the Atlantic energy is splitting which should prop up the high. Perhaps an even bigger shift on the 12z GEFS compared to its 6z run. The former has an incredible mean Greenland high whereas on the 6z it’s centred over the U.K. 12z 6z Unsurprisingly, both means are significantly colder! Whilst there are still potential barriers to longevity (the gfs op goes from perfection to west based to flat real quick) the upgrades on the means are far more relevant when predicting how long our cold spell will persist for.
  7. Cansips, for January 2024, 10 months ago: Cansips, June 2023 Cansips, today: What a phenomenal forecast. The seasonals have absolutely smashed it. It’s easy for them in a 2019/2020 (eg mega zonal) paradigm but predicting blocking that far out is hard. The 46 has also done pretty well after some early wobbles. Peitao Pengs analogues have also done really well The cfs is and always has been garbage, here’s an effort from august that it persisted with up until a few weeks ago. All this has done is throw doubt and apprehension into the mix. Fortunately, most of us were able to see past it. So there you have it. The long awaited early 2024 blocking is upon us. Weather forecasting is hard, but if you listen to the signals, experts, telecons (EQBO, late Nino moving modoki, weak strat, mjo p1, fading iod, major +EAMT) and the models (if they show a really strong, consistent picture) then it is possible to go beyond ‘Fantasy Island’ and into the future. Read back through this thread and the winter preview thread. We called it. Great job folks. And so it begins… Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994008
  8. Cansips, for January 2024, 10 months ago: Cansips, June 2023 Cansips, today: What a phenomenal forecast. The seasonals have absolutely smashed it. It’s easy for them in a 2019/2020 (eg mega zonal) paradigm but predicting blocking that far out is hard. The 46 has also done pretty well after some early wobbles. Peitao Pengs analogues have also done really well The cfs is and always has been garbage, here’s an effort from august that it persisted with up until a few weeks ago. All this has done is throw doubt and apprehension into the mix. Fortunately, most of us were able to see past it. So there you have it. The long awaited early 2024 blocking is upon us. Weather forecasting is hard, but if you listen to the signals, experts, telecons (EQBO, late Nino moving modoki, weak strat, mjo p1, fading iod, major +EAMT) and the models (if they show a really strong, consistent picture) then it is possible to go beyond ‘Fantasy Island’ and into the future. Read back through this thread and the winter preview thread. We called it. Great job folks. And so it begins…
  9. He says something along the lines that: - El Niño winters favour blocking later on - The -NAO signal could increase - the pacific North American pattern will be positive - The global wind oscillation phase 5 pattern is favoured meaning Renewed mountain torque (most likely in east Asia , where high pressure to the Lee of the Himalayas forces air up and around the mountains which should force more pressure on the strat later on - The mjo is forecast to move back over the pacific later on which tends to encourage blocking Scandi highs and a continuation of the weak strat should ensue. I would agree and add that the ec 46 renews the Greenland blocking signal in its first look at early February There’s every chance that with no split and the mjo in 3/4 we could see a relaxation mid / late Jan but the signs remain very positive for Jan / Feb as a whole…
  10. The seasonals have been telling us this all along Scott. If they’re right, it’s a huge coup for long range forecasting: That’s the JFM Cansips, from May!
  11. Merry Christmas to you all. Perhaps the first of hopefully many interesting ecm runs after what seems like an eternity being Scrooge. Perhaps, like Marley in the doorknob, the ridge building to the nw is the harbinger of change… This place is going to be buzzing soon.
  12. Enjoy your posts Andy; it’s good to have your input. The 6z ncep suite looks a little warmer to me than the 0z. Plenty of the geps suite look like they’d go on to split. I think we will see a reversal but it’s not quite ‘in the bag’. Would like to see the GEFS move towards the other two to increase confidence before we can really make a call.
  13. Im not sure the 6z is bad enough for 0 posts. In fact, I’m not sure it’s even bad at all!
  14. A significant phase of amplification is emerging in the eps/GEFS around day 14-15. I expect this is linked more to tropical activity than the strat at this stage. The mjo is now forecast to move quite strongly into phase 1. The phase 1 January Nino composite (and I am in no way suggesting a linear relationship between phases and anomalies) is indicative of a strong N U.K. high. The unusually strong amp and the fact it is happening very soon give a bit more credence to the composite imho Given the lag, the GEFS and eps are not to be dismissed, the eps is almost identical to last night’s run. This is when the real internet begins… Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4981853
  15. A significant phase of amplification is emerging in the eps/GEFS around day 14-15. I expect this is linked more to tropical activity than the strat at this stage. The mjo is now forecast to move quite strongly into phase 1. The phase 1 January Nino composite (and I am in no way suggesting a linear relationship between phases and anomalies) is indicative of a strong N U.K. high. The unusually strong amp and the fact it is happening very soon give a bit more credence to the composite imho Given the lag, the GEFS and eps are not to be dismissed, the eps is almost identical to last night’s run. This is when the real internet begins…
  16. Are you saying the eps are showing a mean reversal Nick? That would be quite something. And am I right in saying that the the 46 is now fundamentally a separate model and won’t necessarily follow on from the eps? Whatever the GEFS are doing on the strat isn’t stopping them producing an eye catching block in the trop mind!
  17. How is that last cluster +nao at the end! Oof! The mean goes to around 4m/s! @bluearmyStarting pistol indeed! Though in all fairness, I’ve been keen since May when the cansips starting hinting at it… all it has to do now is actually happen lol
  18. Clusters in the extended look really interesting: no +nao, lowish euro heights. No doubt there’ll be some exciting members. Don’t think there’s any real wintery interest until at least then. But lots thereafter…
  19. @feb1991blizzard go through the geps members at 10hpa and tell me what you think
  20. The GEFS are really really keen on a major warming, look at the mean below Lots of geps members look to go the same way, though maybe a bit slower. we’re just a few days from knowing if we’re going to get an ssw… If we do get one, then one of the major pieces of the seasonal modelling puzzle (eg the question as to why the seasonals have been so keen on Jan-Mar blocking) will have fallen into place. Incidentally, the same set lose the Genoa +ve height anomaly by day 11, So interesting in both trop and strat…
  21. You’re probably right about the latter part; the reliability bit is true generally but it has been consistent on the ec46 that end week 2 / week 3 we might see a big disruption and now that’s coming into the view of the other two main ensembles. No full blown ssw in reliable forecast just yet either, but a significant warming looks likely with the flavour (e.g minor / major or if the latter displacement / split) still to be decided…
  22. Some serious strat warnings now showing up even in the normally conservative geps and now consistently in the GEFS.
  23. So the JMA is either consistently wrong or has pulled a blinder…
  24. Bit of a wacky NH profile that! As expected, colder charts appearing… People have been writing things off like it’s late Jan 2020. There are some times you know that the writings on the wall, this isn’t (for the time being anyway) one of them.
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