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Uncertainy

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Everything posted by Uncertainy

  1. Next 7 days forecast It’s the mirror universe NW/SE split!
  2. Yes James I’ve often noticed it’s often the ‘direction’ AAM is taking can be the driver or impetus behind changes in U.K. weather patterns - especially when other forcings are lesser such as in midsummer. ECM and GEM both hint at heights building over the top of the trough by day 10 Best case scenario for dry sunny weather lovers there and not well supported yet... But equally there are some really quite disturbing members of the GEFS showing extreme northern blocking and a deep downstream trough. Here’s the control, representative and dismal: EPS at day 10 sh
  3. Week 2 1/2 Ec46 Week 3 1/2 Every EC46 run since the 24th of May has progged high U.K. heights for this period so it’s been a really consistent forecast. Plenty of hurdles to cross in the meantime but a settled early July looks really promising...
  4. I’m not fully sold on this unsettled 2nd half of June, not in the ‘May 2021’ sense anyway. Eps clusters for T312 1 is LP trapped between highs to E and, worryingly, the NW... 2 is dry with HP in control 3 is potentially hot and unstable But looking through them I don’t really see many 3s it’s more a 60/40 split between 1 and 2 GEM ensembles also have about 35% with the ridge fully in control of our weather. The 46 was hardly a washout for weeks 3 and 4 (which were the most unsettled pressure wise and would be the most at risk from knock on effe
  5. EC46 broadly supports the expected AAM progression turning slightly but not particularly unsettled later in June after a possibly thundery breakdown with pressure rebounding into July. W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 Many would take that if offered. And fits with my overall summer expectation / current seasonal model delineation of HP waxing and waning to the W and then E but hopefully not dominating too far to the NW or indeed SE.
  6. 0z clusters 240 12z 240 mean Somewhere between clusters 2 and 4? Trending plumey? I wonder if anyone has ever uttered those 2 words together 😂 I wouldn’t write off any TS action with that mean anyway. Though GEFS more progressive this evening. Plume shunted well East. We’re talking about the behaviour of the second ridge, which at this range is always very tricky... Here on the UKMO the ridge, present between the Icelandic low and the one exiting the states, is pretty meagre... By 168 (love seeing this chart Mr Gaze btw) it is easi
  7. @Singularity James you’ve just made my night! Not only did I have no idea the UKMO went out to 168 on TWO, it’s a stonker too! Possibility of a heat low developing over Portugal? Could that sustain the ridge a few days longer and / or allow for a more interesting thundery breakdown from the S rather than the NW? JMA shows the potential... Settled weather extended beyond day 9 there... Regardless, a very ‘useable’ feel about the models this evening, the risk of cloud and rain of course increasing as one moves NWward but even the likes of Oban and the islands might catch
  8. One of those odd situations where locally the day 8-10 period has more confidence than the days preceding it. The high building north at day 8 has been unusually well forecast by the models and anomaly charts and remains consistent. ECM day 8 GEFS mean for same timeframe GEM NOAA As many experienced forecasters on this forum have noted, 2-3 days of consistent modelling by the means and anomalies increases confidence significantly. Marry this info to the background signals (higher AAM being maintained for now - Nino-like atmospheric tendenci
  9. Spot the difference at day 10 on the GEFS and EPS. The signal persists into week 3 on the EC46 After that things are a lot less clear. The 46 projects the tropical signal to fade and then perhaps turn towards the IO, which in turn may pull down AAM and hint at a June of two halves, the 500hpa hinting at that too, here’s week 4: Promising signs though as @mushymanrob has alluded to and certainly a change from the last two Junes which quickly turned sour. I maintain that this summer will be an ebb and flow between heights to the W and E of us. No 2018 with the Atlantic
  10. I think we still need to look objectively at the models. If they are signposting a breakdown then that needs discussed, otherwise this forum becomes overly biased towards hot/sunny or cold/snowy and loses credibility. That doesn’t mean that people shouldn’t post the odd brilliant chart with an extreme or unlikely solution occasionally because that is part of the joy of this forum and it will give people a lift. As long as it is caveated as such (like @Alderc did this morning with his analysis of an extreme and exciting gfs op solution that went against the overall trend). On a personal le
  11. Means vs Ops: Day 9ish Ops: Means: Let’s give it a day or two eh? Pretty strong support for a U.K. high regime, the Ops can’t be ignored with their green snot outcome, but you can’t really see it on the EC spreads either, so it’s a case of checking in tomorrow to see if the renegade trough option is still there. Given the changes in the behaviour of the northbound euro low next Wednesday (e.g. was cut off low /then deep low moving north / now weak feature moored west of Ireland) it’s hard to give credence to any day 8+ outcome at pr
  12. Obviously they don’t Blue but given the MO are also signposting a return to a *possible return to settled weather in that timeframe it’s still interesting that the clusters are at least hinting at that scenario. FWIW I looked through all the day 12 EPS members and there’s definitely a slight bias to HP but still a plethora of options as you’d expect and many more than suggested by the cluster algorithm.
  13. I must admit given the mid June doom and gloom on here and on Twitter I was surprised to find that all the EPS clusters have some semblance of U.K. high pressure in the extended? And no ugly Greenland heights to speak of? Not exactly trough domination on the 8-14 dayer either At op level, you can see the support for the above at day 10 via the ECM and GFS, despite very different routes getting there Perhaps there’s a chance we could end up getting away with a reasonable early/mid June even if AAM does fall away as long as those mid Atlantic heights can stay a
  14. Well 2 days later and where are we now? The amplification delineated above is still very much evident, but the details are far from resolved. So much so that the GFS in its wisdom has manifested a real ‘worst case scenario’, wherein a trough gets trapped underneath the amplifying ridge and just slowly fills across the U.K whilst pressure builds strongly to the North. Make no mistake this would be a rotten and dismal solution but it is by no means impossible. The ECM has sort of hinted at various other manifestations of this breakaway trough, here’s yesterday’s 0z Thes
  15. Are we finally heading towards a drier, perhaps even warmer spell of weather? We’ve had a number of false dawns in the modelling, especially in the day 8+ range wherein recently the modelling has been utterly abysmal... Here’s last Friday’s ECM effort at 192 A major ridge building in the wake of this week’s low Now today’s 120 The ridge merely a stopgap before the next major unseasonable low barrels in. The GEFS as ever, have been particularly guilty of signposting a U.K. high when In reality the true signal was a U.K low. So how can we trust that t
  16. After what is turning out to be an unusually unsettled May, thoughts are now inevitably turning to the summer months. I intend to give an overview of the seasonal model output for the June - August period with the aim of gleaning out a signal for what is a tricky season to pin down at the best of times. Caveats: - These are smoothed out 3 monthly means and hide within them huge variation as you would expect, only the broadest of trends will be analysed here. - I am ONLY using SLP as the forecast product and interpreting it at face value. Obviously, within said mean, one month co
  17. It sure is! Late on Both clusters go back to heights to the NW and downstream trough. There’s a vague idea on the GEFS too. *maybe* some retrogression hints at day 10 on the GEM too. I doubt day 12 would be overly mild... On the other hand the 18z is different again, with a low in the E Atlantic instead of a ridge and has the W Russian high ridging over us still at day 11... Not much of a match with the 8-14 NOAA? Let’s see if the GFS ops and eps can find some consistency on this over the next few days. Then we can sta
  18. Thanks BA. Yes agree the 3 month mean is smoothed so lacks utility as a predictive tool. Can I access the monthly breakdowns on the ECM site or are they behind a paywall?
  19. Well that didn’t take long then did it now ECM? Another clobbering by the new GFS which has been days ahead on next week’s building ridge. Here’s yesterday’s 12z for Thursday: Jet Energy heading NE and a trough spilling in towards Ireland bringing April showers for the foreseeable. And this mornings run: More energy peeling off SE and thus settled and dry across the U.K. The issue for the ECM is this had been clear yesterday and it couldn’t cotton on, hence the late backtrack. It’s still my favourite model, but maybe it’s going through a crisis in
  20. Overall the EPS are more settled than the Det and parallel op. They get plenty settled later on in the run too, suggesting the heights likely to win out later in the period. FYI: A beautiful synoptic for those in the NW. Less so for the East coast dwellers, looks like a haar factory.
  21. Not sure why but the ECM just isn’t convinced on next week’s potential settled spell, GEM, UKMO and GFS have been zeroing in in it for a few days now, the former coming on board in the last two runs... here’s 144: Really similar with sthern scandi heights ridging over the U.K. nicely... The GEFS have been quite consistent on this signal The ECM, very out of sorts in the mid range over the last 6 or so months, pushes a trough through and thus looks really out of kilter with the rest of the guidance This trough, now trapped between hei
  22. We have a real dichotomy here, with the EPS it’s an overwhelming signal for HP domination throughout, 240 is illustrative Meanwhile the GEFS flatten the pattern significantly by that point, and trend quite chilly and unsettled thereafter The GEPS take the middle ground, illustrating the difficulty at making a punt at this point, though probably more EPS like Given the para Gfs and, by the looks of it, UKMO, follow the EPS you’d have to give that more weighting. Nevertheless, the models have a tendency to slowly flatten mean U.K. highs to Bartletts and
  23. Clusters at day 15 Bifurcated 50/50 between Spring and Winter. But if the GFS suite is right, entirely irrelevant! FYI, seasonals starting to trickle out for Feb - Apr CMCC suggests Winter is far from done with us yet... Meteo-France similar, though a look at the longer lead times suggests the Feb signal is skewing the mean towards blocking, and that this would relent significantly by April (consistent with a strong late season SPV and late final warming perhaps???) Here’s the EC for MAM to corroborate Overall then, the broad signal for stron
  24. Not quite as strong a Scandi high as the 0z pal but the 46 keeps it cold and v blocked well into March Week 3 Week 4 Normally these charts would electrify this forum, but understandably given the vagaries of this winter and the present snow fix granted for many it’s only a passing interest. But we must continue our work discussing the models, and this is what they are showing at present. Cold and blocked remains the form horse, with a 25% threat of an Atlantic incursion of unknown duration.
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