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Eagle Eye

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Everything posted by Eagle Eye

  1. Convective Outlook️ A complex system of showers and multi-cellular clusters of storms mainly for southern and central England moving NE throughout the day with lots of trailing showers. Strong surface energy forced onto surface-based buoyant airflow with high-level shearing, stretching the vorticity streamwise for strong low-level helicity. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE will help aid strong forced bands of showers and storms capable of organised lightning but mostly sporadic, mainly in the SW, central south, southern Wales and parts of central England. Mainly in the early afternoon and lasting throughout into the evening though. Perhaps waning late evening to just weak showers overnight. Forcing bands will help with the momentum and buoyancy to allow these to form and also become the central potential for severe weather. These low-level vorticity forcings, where they are strongest can force taller towers with almost their own identity depending on the strength, along with where they crossover with the strongest 3CAPE for low-level energy that can go into working with the low-level shear and potentially form a tornado. Especially, with near surface storms with higher wind friction near the surface which can sometimes force the start to a tornado (apparently) and it's a very interesting case as to if and where these form if they do for future forecasting. Also a potential for coastal tornadic activity with the showers and storms with the friction. Isolated showers in Ireland and northern Ireland, mainly northern Ireland are possible. Perhaps a small chance of a lightning strike with those. As well as that, a band of rain that may have embedded towers looks to hit the SE in the day on a few forecasts and the main storms may hit the SE and the east and renew late evening with perhaps some re strengthening of the Theta-E in the region. Again, that may allow for some lightning to sporadically occur. Generally though, the main potential is for sporadic and then some fairly frequent lightning in the central south, up to central England, south Wales and south western parts of England. Along with tornadic potential with this, but what would likely be weak tornadic activity unless the energy increases further. Wind strength is also likely to be gusty with these. Both by the low placed over the UK and the storms themselves with all the low-level forcing.
  2. WeatherWatchmanG Your location being west London suggests you're nowhere near the potential tomorrow at least.
  3. WeatherArc For stronger UK tornadoes you are totally right there in my opinion. For the bigger outbreaks with weaker tornadoes, it's the north Atlantic lows over the colder parts of the year that seem to do best. Especially ones that can combine with a Theta-E arm from wherever with increased moisture.
  4. Ben Sainsbury Quite often the case with the UK, it's of ifs and buts... If anything, if it was summer, we could well have that much energy. However, this setup won't happen in summer because of sods law.
  5. The Tall Weatherman Buoyancy is high, streamwise vorticity in a high LLS environment, if this can line up properly with high 3CAPE which is there and even on that sounding, I see no real reason why there can't be a tornado at all. High momentum inside the storm is likely with conditions for PV towers with potential momentum buildiers as well. However, saturation is often an issue and with the developments here, I think it could be an issue for a lot of the strongest hooked places. Longest lasting storms will have the best chance, it's not a real early type of event, instead, a tornado would want the air parcel to have the longest time to take up energy.
  6. Sounding to prove it. That low-level hook is extremely rare for the UK.
  7. Tomorrow is very fascinating for low-level disturbances. High surface energy, lots of low-level shearing and helicity, especially coastal bound with the coastal fringe friction we've seen before but the surface friction in general could be very important as if a surface based and I mean very low storm could form, then that surface shearing which appears likely to be stretched streamwsie almost entirely with the amount of energy going to rotation, there's a small chance of a fairly significant tornado forming. That's worst case scenario though and I suspect would require an initial Supercell and an almost entirely clear initial formation for the storm to grow in.
  8. Convective Outlook️ Showers forming along a shortwave trough behind an occluded front in the early afternoon are likely to cluster mainly in the southern Irish sea, the far SW of England, western Wales and southwestern Ireland. Some fairly strong buoyant air should help force up with lots of energy for these showers to come with sporadic lightning likely given the time of year and limited potential for the energy. The occluded front itself in the eastern parts through a lot of the day may bring a sporadic lightning strike or two. Strong surface energy and low-level winds in areas may aid some strong surface winds along with these showers as well. Small potential for a tornado in all of that. The deep-layer shear is strongest in the England and Wales parts of the slight risk, perhaps a small chance of a Supercell from that then. Hail is unlikely to be strong but the lift and cell mergers could force some kind of hail. That should clear NE wards with a few straggling showers before a lifting occluded front clears it in the evening. Especially showers may linger in Ireland.
  9. Best day of the year for photography yesterday for me. A few birds flying by the moon as well if you zoom in.
  10. Neilsouth Thats becuase it's below average right now. However going through March it was above average. March is a cold month, we had April-May temperatures quite a lot of the time.
  11. This does appear to be a real video as there's a similar shot from further away of the dead man walking structure of one of the tornadoes with multiple large vortexes. Suggestive that it cold well have been violent.
  12. Horrible horrible night for some people unfortunately. A couple absolutely violent tornadoes last night at the dark hours, the worst time.
  13. Convective Outlook️ A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms could form in areas of cloud clearance on Friday. With 600+ J/KG of SBCAPE possible in areas aiding sporadic lightning. The two lines most likely appear to be forecasted roughly from the SW ENE-wards towards Essex and perhaps parts of Suffolk and another one likely weaker from south Wales towards north eastern parts of England. Both of these should move slightly SSE after forming in the afternoon and fade into the evening having formed along wind convergence zones forcing PV lobes in those 2 areas it appears, the southern mode having more energy to work with. Cloud coverage and saturation appears to be quite high in most areas limiting the lightning potential of showers and how many showers form. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in arwas may help with that but not much. Some small hail is possible because of the energy but most of it is held in the low-levels. Weak shearing limits that again.
  14. Right. 10% hatched risk for tonight. Potentially strong tornadoes and large hail tonight.
  15. Quite the most incredible radar and cone to multi vortex tornado. Lots of photos taken from Twitter from lots of different accounts:
  16. Sleet haily rainy mix went horizontal at such a strength you could see the curtains falling even in the dark for about 20 seconds.
  17. I was supposed to have a forecast out today but unfortunately the person that makes the maps couldn't make one today. Heres my discussion. A trough behind an occluded front should bring heavy showers to the south coast. A Theta-E lobe advecting northwards with the trough will allow for channel and south coast showers throughout the afternoon and evening behind a clearing occluded front to the north and east which may also bring the risk of the odd sporadic lightning strike earlier in the day to a lot of the country but the risk is quite low. This moisture convergence should form widespread clusters of showers, some reaching 7km tall or around 23,000 feet potentially. Given relatively high shearing and 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in areas, lightning is likely but mostly should be sporadic because of the messy nature of the showers and given similar events, very little could come out of the lightning but if they linger into the evening and scatter, I've seen lightning increase then. Small chance of a Supercell and potentially a tornado mainly in the SE given the shearing but apart from that, there's really little support for either except low LCL's. Small hail may form but I wouldn't say is likely just given that the MLCAPE is mostly quite weak and mixed in at the warmer lower levels rather than where the temperature is below freezing. High saturation for a lot of the south also limits lightning but having looked at many soundings, the saturation varies a lot from place to place and some areas have very weak saturation with favourable lightning conditions just miles away from high saturation and unfavourable lightning conditions. It's a very messy setup which makes it a bit more difficult to forecast for specifics.
  18. If you think we have it bad with Storm setup busts, look at the CINH on this sounding, any setup would be a bust . Not much buoyancy in that atmosphere either.
  19. East Chicago Indiana tornado on Facebook
  20. Tornado on Adam Lucio's stream it appears. Mean storm.
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