Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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33 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Everyone I bumped in to over the last few days has used the word "glorious"
I cannot argue with that!
Agreed, everyone in my school said it was overly hot but I dont think it is at all, more of this over the Summer, I would welcome.
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19 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
UKV 6z quite similar to NMM, some decent instability and strong DLS across the SE. Could be some very electrically active cells initiating for a time tomorrow evening as they clear ENE into the North Sea and Mainland Europe.
Would you say I'm in with a shout or will I have to hope that I can see them to my north or to my south?
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The ECM has been continuously modelling the same thing hence why my area of concern for thunderstorms on land (didn't include the channel)from a couple days ago wouldn't look out of place if it was based on this run.
There is decent cross model support for this but its far from nailed on.
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Last frame of the UKV run for early Tuesday morning, perhaps picking up a new potential? I don't think so but it might be based off the ECM.
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7 minutes ago, LightningLover said:
Looks more like torrential frontal rain to me? Perhaps some lightning embedded initially...
Maybe, I don't know to be honest, maybe a typical Eastern destabilisation kind of thing.
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UKV run because wow.
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The ECM suggests significant thunderstorms are possible Saturday night, with what look to be imports, developing over the north sea and the channel.
Shear is forecast to be significant with this, I would suggest the potential for Supercells and with 50 knots of low-level shear tornadic potential is possible if Storms can form to be more isolated rather than an MCS which would be very scary at night (consider that shear typically strengthens at night as well).
Deep-layer shear of 70 knots is incredible for the UK and does suggest Supercellular development is quite likely, which models such as the ECM find it hard to
Multiple models are beginning to show an idea of some CAPE forming over areas across the east or the south of the UK on Saturday in the day, the ECM on the lower end of this.
The Swiss model has a ridiculous significant tornado parameter that would suggest to me that a tornado is potential in the day as well with Supercellular development possible, I would suggest the midlands may be the best place in the day, with a low CAPE high shear event that seems to be modelled by quite a few models but it needs that CAPE to actually occur.
A couple models showing significant CAPE on Friday, the Canadian model on the extreme end of that.
Looking at it from a sense of model agreement and we're finally getting it for Saturday.
Significant cross model agreement for Saturday with troughing to the South and a low to the North. This is good for two facts, it rises the potential for imports and typically, trough's seem to push North quicker than modelled and so, in the day, CAPE could be higher than the ECM is currently showing and in theory the UKMO is the most likely to be correct. Supercellular wise, shear is more likely to advect quicker and even though temperatures may be weakened slowing down the breaking of any CAP but once the trough passes over your area, that CAP is likely to erode quickly. Theta-W is likely to advect even further North than currently modelled, rising the potential for Plume Storms to be elevated and move further North and we're far enough away from the centre of the trough that these values are unlikely to cool down by the time night arrives.Finally we have some agreement here and with that, comes, what I expect, temperature agreement in the next couple runs especially from these models, the GFS is out on it's own now, so don't worry about it's temperatures.
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Then he waddled away
Till the very next day
(Great now got that stuck in my mind now)
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Just now, Blessed Weather said:
Hi Robert. Welcome to the SE & EA Regional thread. I think many of us would agree with you and be happy with 25C, although some of us weather nutcases also enjoy a quick blast of 35C and a thundery breakdown! It certainly looks like many in the Region will see 31C - 33C on Friday, but atm I'm not optimistic for our chances of a thundery breakdown - that's looking more to the west of the Region.
I don't know whether I would like 35°C,most of my friends are ginger (don't ask me how)and seeing as I'm the Weatherman of the group they'll take it out on me
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26 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Beautiful start with the whole Region under blue sky. Probably the best part of the day as models suggest some cloud around by this afternoon. I've captured the satellite image using the European view as the explosion of some big thunderstorms over Spain caught my eye. I wonder if we'll get some storms by next weekend as the cool airmass over us is replaced by much warmer air as the week progresses? It could be our first "phew, what a scorcher" by the end of the week.
Satellite 06.20:
850hPa airmass today:
versus Friday 17th:
Those are some very strong 850's on Friday. With that, comes the risk that theta-W often follows with it and so should any energy occur over France or even over southern Britain, then especially during the night when shear tends to strengthen, we could get some longer lasting Storms and taller Storm, potentially Supercells over Britain and/or the channel. During the day, for a while, I've been worried about how dry air parcels may be, however, a trough located so close should give them enough moisture. Almost all models have come to the agreement that there will be energy somewhere, its just where it is that's the problem.
I'm going to do something I didn't initially plan to do and only talk about the actual CAPE on one model. That's the UKMO which brings an incredible Plume to the SE and seeing as it's performed decently well recently, there might be the potential that's correct here, this is a scenario that is possible.
Now let's talk about the other models,without getting stuck into the CAPE values.
The GFS has widespread positive heat flux values across the UK, significantly more than I've seen in recent years. Red hear flux last week amounted to 1,000 J/KG of CAPE locally and so I would think this would amount to quite a significant amount of CAPE, maybe 2500 J/KG in places, a lot more than we've experienced for years and approaching the record.
The Swiss model is a lot more Conservative with perhaps 1,000 or even 1,500 J/KG widespread.
The GFS Theta-W is also really good as well, looks like a Plume is quite possible for the SW Thursday night into Friday and then becoming more Surface Based on Friday with some elevated Convection as well. Then Froday night into Saturday morning, another Plume potential, this time for the SE looks to take place, bringing, I would expect, even bigger MUCAPE with it and resulting in some big elevated Storms potentially.
Counting out the ECM because I don't think it has either of these, I would say that we have a decent chance of a Storm after a warm and humid day with the chance of a Storm in that day as well, a type of Plume Storm that people think about as 'clearing the air', with possibly 33°C temperatures followed by Storms and then some more bearable temperatures let's say.
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17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
Hopefully the heat vanishes. If we can't have cold spells in the winter then heat lovers should be treated equally and watch their hopes of plumes get squashed as well.
I'm a lover of both, double the pain I guess then.
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On 25/04/2022 at 07:05, TN9 said:
So its steady as she goes then
I said May would be good for Storms and it was (in my opinion anyway), I said there was the possibility of June being good for Storms as well,we'll have to wait and see but if we get a thundery breakdown out of the possible heat later next week, then it could be quite big and I would count that as another win.
"Soon, significant progress of the wave across the Western Pacific will mean that I suspect mid to late May could be the best time for plume development"
Well we did have one around Mid May, I'm happy about that as well.
GFS still going strong with it, if it goes off, this could be an Amerocan style, isolated Supercellular day, upscaling into an MCS pushing across the rest of the country over the night.
The Swiss model is ridiculous for Saturday as well.
That's not it either, Friday into Saturday some ridiculous CAPE as well.
I think next Saturday, could genuinely see isolated Supercellular development across the Midlands which have been Storm starved recently whereas we've been taking all of it, I do think that we may see some Storms crossing the channel as well, maybe even being Supercellular themselves. This will only happen if things happen perfectly though and it's still ages away.
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23 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
I have probably just jinxed it by telling my boss there is going to be a heatwave next week . Probably a bit premature but I couldn't contain the excitement.
Told 1 of my friends because she hates the heat (being ginger and all), may have jinxed it, or because I said it solemnly since she hates it I jinxed it so that, it might actually come off. If it does, I'm sure she can just put on some factor 1 billion suncream and a hat, meanwhile I'll be out saying how cold it is because its not 35°C by 10am yet .
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29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
TBH, I don't put much faith in analogues, EE, but I'm pretty sure El Gordo was before 2012 anyway -- it might even have been during NW's infamous 'Shades of '76' summer. Who knows? It's nae only the UK Meteorological Office what gets things embarrassingly wrong!
Yes,pretty sure it was in that year but 2012 was an incredibly year for Thunderstorms from what I can gather as well. Been decent so far, hopefully for the Storm lovers like me, it gets even better, especially for areas further West who haven't had a good day of Thunderstorms for ages from what I can gather.
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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Now I am worried. I'm worried we might have another El Gordo on our hands!
2012 was mentioned as an analogue year on twitter by a pretty reliable source a while ago (can't remember exactly who though,pretty sure is was based off a Model that can compare analogue years),don't get me excited, I'll only end up disappointed, it wont happen (reverse psychology).
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This is all a bit mad, over 3000 J/KG of CAPE on the GFS
The Swiss Model has an almost perfect Plume setup for us here.
The ECM with over 6000 J/KG of CAPE over Northern France.
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The overmixing of Dewpoints seems to be happening on a lot of the Models I guess then. This is teetering on the edge of being a possible thundery breakdown but I think that the atmosphere might be relatively dry in the day and will have to wait for air parcels to be replaced for anything to go off Thunderstorm wise. So in other words a strong CAP might be in place but if it breaks then that may stop a Convective mess forming and so may help Thunderstorm development, isolated as well, with the possibility for some strong low-level shear (that's only based off the latest tuns though and I don't think that's exactly what will happen). As well as that I would think that a proper Plume Thunderstorm would be possible from this, making its way across the channel and bringing the CAPE with it. With all the runs varying, something ridiculous could happen, or just a few Storms maybe firing off on one of the less capped days.
The GFS is ridiculous
Let's talk about the CAPE over Northern France on the ECM though.
It's all a bit of fun because it's a while out yet but if this happened, all combined into one event, IMAGINE THE STORM THREAD .
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The GFS is, let's say, on the warm side.
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Good signs from multiple models that we're leaning towards a warm/hot period, although it might be quite short, I think 30 degrees Celsius may be reached.
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10 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:
Although I come from the other end of the spectrum, regarding a liking of Lightning/Thunder, to one of our newest Members, EAGLE EYE but enjoy reading E.E.'s enthusiasm, regarding the T word.
Regarding my Brontophobia, I actually managed to lie down upstairs during a couple of Lightning'Thunder events, a few Weeks ago.
Regards,
Tom.
I bet that while post took a while to make and all of it from the heart.
I used to be or the same spectrum as you with thunderstorms up until last year, my first year on here of capturing lightning was filled with me hiding from the Storm and pointing my video camera at the window hoping it would capture the lightning. Now, I watch the Storm unless it becomes multiple CG's such as May 18th where I'm next to the window to protect my eyes but not looking outside of it in case of a really close strike.
Mostly I try and force myself to watch the Storm and it brings the adrenaline on and I become less and less scared of the Storm over time. Last year I Chased for the first time,now I do it when there's a shower around.
For some reason I prefer forecasting to chasing most days but that's because of Sod's Law that I always miss the best strike. One day I'm getting to get hundreds of cameras so I don't miss it .
It is possible to overcome that fear but you have to push yourself to watch a Storm, keep telling yourself that Mother Nature is putting a show on just for you and isn't attacking you and eventually you should see that fear become less and less pronounced.
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2 hours ago, Surrey said:
GFS has a tendency to over egg temperatures a bit but the 06z running out now has 27c at midnight next Friday.. Fans at the ready!
All courtesy of the 15c isotherm line making inroads which doesn't actually happen that often.. Text book summer pattern setup with low pressure running North through the Atlantic and dragging very warm air up from Africa. If the Azores high gets displaced and moves over us you could really build in some heat unless it gets put under pressure from the west.
Subject to change and these patterns will move East - West all the time as the models work it out. To far East and we miss the high temperatures and end up with more of an Atlantic westerly..
40c+ for many parts of France on this run...
Serious summer heat..
Better tell my ginger friends before they melt then
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12 hours ago, Justin1705 said:
I missed the flash but I'm sure your on about this I'm sorry but I have to say I've been lucky this year with being in brighton on the may 18th and today a surface based with shotgun thunder, I promise I recorded for 5 minutes and nothing so gave up. Stop the recording then flash. Typical !! couldn't get the flash
IMG_5302.MOV 17.55 MB · 4 downloads IMG_5301.MOV 17.48 MB · 0 downloads IMG_5302.MOV
That sort of reminds me of the time that I was filming a plume Storm last year and saw a small strike just about visible on my video when watching it but as it was CC and hidden it was just a small flash of blue so I left it 20 seconds as that Storm seemed to have 2 strikes close together a lot followed by a long gap but this time that didn't seem to be happening so I stopped my video what happened to be 0.5 seconds after a CC bolt occured, only thing was, immediately after I stopped recording as in, if I'd have kept filming for one second, a massive bolt of spider lightning filled up the sky above me. I was still looking at my camera at the time as I took it away from the window and that bolt of lightning had crawled across the whole screen, fitting perfectly on either side, yet I'd missed it by literally milliseconds .
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11 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:
Today's update.
I have decided to do my own forecast for today since it has more than a slight risk of Convection.
An increased risk for Storms has been issued, with the potential for flooding, hail and strong wind gusts from Storms with high cloud bases. Areas of strong convergence may counteract the lack of shear to create tall Storms with the potential for moderate to frequent lightning for a time but this will only last for a time as the lack of shear will be an issue with long-lived Storms. Areas near Lincolnshire may get longer lived Storms with at least some shear there and I considered putting a moderate anywhere within the increased area in case of shear strengthening enough as it typically does later in the day because the risk of lightning is quite high it's just how long Storms can live for that's the problem.
Frequency of lightning as mentioned could be quite frequent for a time but mostly I think it will be relatively weak especially across the slight risk area with only 300J/KG CAPE values but in some areas, 800 J/KG looks likely with very localised >1,000 J/KG of CAPE meaning that some areas may get relatively frequent lightning without the shear especially across areas of East Anglia and so for some, they may get a tall Storm counteracting the lack of shear on a convergence boundary that stays relatively slow moving for a time with localised upwards vorticity within the air meaning that despite the lack of an updraft, hail is possible and frequent lightning is a possibility.
The air is relatively dry so the risk for flooding remains on the basis that Storms can take in most of the moisture available within the levels of the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor saturation in a column as a percentage looks to be pretty high locally, especially across the Midlands and the risk of flooding there is likely to be highest. Across the South East and it is also pretty high suggesting a risk of flash flooding there as well but the amount of water that can be taken from is likely to be slightly less in that area.Fluctuations of heat suggest the best convergence line will form across the south and so the slight risk has been extended as lightning is unlikely to be at an increased risk it hasn't become an increased risk, yet. Just North of London is likely to be the next area of convergence and that is shown on the increased risk, it may become part of a moderate extending to Lincolnshire though, as this is where CAPE values are widely at 500J/KG and locally above the 1,000 J/KG threshold. The final convergence line looks possible in the North or in Scotland and heavy Storms are possible, perhaps the occasional risk of lightning but CAPE values are likely to be pretty low there.
I've also included a 'discussion' for flooding, hail and stronger wind gusts risk.
Whilst some places did get Thunderstorms, a lot more places than I expected didn't. The capping held in place for longer than I was expecting but that wasn't the main issue here as all it did was delay proceedings. What I think happened, was that the mid-levels were a lot dryer than I expected, perhaps influenced by the frontal rain that we had before and so clouds couldn't reach their potential height, instead, most of them capped off at quite low levels, cloud bases might have been slightly lower though, thanks to the low-level moisture content that the frontal rain left behind, that would have risen quite slowly under Surface Based capping once the temperature increased and with the relatively weak cap easily being eroded away, lower cloud bases were likely what happened in areas with highest rainfall. Some areas did get lightning relatively frequently and that's where I expect that the mid-level air parcels were displaced by an oncoming pressure line ( I don't know what to call them), especially later on in the day and so that Storm near Luton can be seen to have formed around the time when that rushed on and replaced the air parcels but with CAPE still lingering and the low-level jet increasing a Storm managed to develop relatively tall and bring heavy rainfall and some more organised lightning.
That Storm near Watton in East Anglia has also developed quite quickly, likely by an oncoming replacement of the mid-levels taking place in the last half an hour, although it'll likely weaken quickly as CAPE weakens, although they were replaced earlier as shown by some more organised Storms near it, this second replacement would have fully replaced the dry atmosphere around it at the mid-levels and the enhanced low-level jet would have meant that this Storm will likely have reached its full potential height with very little potential to become higher as eventually, the energy weakens higher up into the air and if loses its ability to go up further into the atmosphere.
Even without as much lightning as I expected, a lot of flooding from these Storms taking in around 90% of water from the surrounding atmosphere is liekly to have happened and there were some quite strong wind gusts with it as well.
All in all, I'm pretty happy with my forecast.
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I will take that shower to my North gladly.
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Here's what I texted my family about tomorrow's risk and will probably text my friends as well.
"Potential for more Storms tomorrow evening/night comes from a cut off low lifting North from Portugal tonight and brushing the SE tomorrow evening, bringing with it cooler air with more moisture aloft, this means that surface capping (capping is essentially dry air that cannot be lifted) over France will be relatively strong keeping Storm development over France to a minimum throughout the day. However, later into the evening, that cool moisture aloft will push up through France and enhance elevated Storm development unless capping forms in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as well as surface based which would require the buoyancy and lift in the atmosphere to be low. If elevated Storms do form in enhanced upper-level heat profiles then as the low pressure moves further North it will continue to bring that moisture and energy with it and elevated Storms are much more likely to cross the channel as they are unaffected by the heat of the channel. Based off the amount of Storms that did form over Portugal and Spain today I would say that the buoyancy and lifting are strong for now but those can change over time. Therefore potential tomorrow lies on the movement of a cut off area of low pressure and just how much moisture forms and what happens with the capping."