Eagle Eye

Robert1981 not mine but agreed there.

Wow

18Z HRRR Ohio very much at the epicentre of significant tornado probabilities with Supercells evolving linearly and the probably eventually becoming a squall once the forcing pushes it into one. However the early part of this event could be very significant tornadic potential wise. High SRH where the vorticity is mostly streamwise and lots of low-level energy. Fairly strong energy being converted into potential for rotation.

WeatherArc I think tomorrow is a lot more potent with potential than today, looks very significant at the moment. Properly strong start to the main 2 months of storm season in terms of potential, even though it's not really a typical area.

Hail moderate risk and maybe the chance of a strong tornado. Not the best chase conditions today but it's certainly quite a big event anyway.

Very much bust category here. Perhaps more saturated than expected and too much coverage of weaker showers didn't allow bigger ones to build.

Azazel Lightning just north of you apparently

matty40s 3 to 4 pm looks to be where the showers are going to get more widespread and also push further north. I suspect that's when the main lightning potential is as well.

Struggling to light up at the moment but the showers are there.

Convective Outlook️ 800+ J/KG of SBCAPE will form on Monday afternoon with trough forced showers and storms widespread during the afternoon. Potentially frequent lightning may occur in a couple cells. At peak heating times, buoyancy could be fairly strong and force a few cell clusters and storms capable of frequent lightning and maybe flash flooding. This will occur across England and maybe more often in areas of deeper shear where cells can keep themselves up for longer instead of collapsing in on themselves quickly. Then in the channel throughout the day and the evening, there's likely showers that'll mostly be confined to western and central parts of the channel that may hit the coast and push further in on some unstable PV lobes that push north. Then throughout the day the channel showers push further east, lingering in the west till the evening but extending east mid to late afternoon perhaps turning into more stable rain in the SW as night falls but still strong further east. These also risk lightning strikes throughout the channel and the coast all throughout. The main risk has fairly good lapse rates and enough energy and weak enough low-level shear to have the potential of near severe hail in the midlands especially. However, flash flooding is the main severe risk. That's likely where the best combination of energy and potential for longer lived storms are as well.

viking_smb Frustrating about my main one earlier today however there was at least some in the SE for the slight and if thst storm in the channel had reached it would have warranted it. However, the area of interest for lightning going further west from the slight worked and got a lot of the strikes in I think. There has been lots of convection in the SE, just something stopping much lightning.

Loud noises are now counted as rumbles for me even if it's quite unlikely that they actually are

Thunderspotter Rain versus non rain muffled.

As soon as the occlusion actually hit the coast. All I'm saying is that maybe just maybe there's 1 or a couple more shows to be had.

All turned into heavy showers that just aren't producing the lightning.

Warm air into the cell that's just passed. Hopefully skies keep clear as might timelapse.

Building showers around here @Thunders

Developments of storms moving further east slowly. Hopefully anyway.

Potential cycling on the mid channel cell, next to the storms losing energy, there's a mass of rain getting stronger. Hopefully that keeps going.

I have that feeling that Kent is going to be cut off here, our main hope is losing strength and I'm not sure if we'll get those pre-frontal storm beyond that channel stuff.

Azazel Nothing really, if anything it's a supposedly very weak environment for shear.

Thunders Too low to be accas probably.

Thunders two individual cells developing. Look to be weakening but often these events pulse from high to low in terms of lightning strikes.

Thunders No real hail potential that I can see. Weak shearing so maybe but can't see it personally.

A lot of this stuff appears to be getting stronger in the channel likely meaning it's now elevated.